TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Elon's model 3 comments

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by surfside, Apr 27, 2017.

Tags:
  1. surfside

    surfside Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2013
    Messages:
    225
    Location:
    United States
    so one of the things that has been bugging me since the 4Q 2016 earnings call was elon's comments about the model 3 when pressed about a final reveal -- here is the exchange with the analysts:

    "It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling, but with more polish and refinement and a few more details that are added. So it'll be better than what was unveiled and I guess in some ways it will be a lot better."

    the part of the quote that has been bugging me is the comment that in some ways it is going to be a lot better than the car that was revealed.

    what has made things more interesting is the extent that elon has tried to dispel misconceptions that the model 3 is the company's latest, greatest product (ala latest iphone). as part of dispelling those notions, elon has essentially told us that the model s and model x are always going to get the latest technology. as a result, i feel like the number of ways that the model 3 could possibly be "way better" than the car that was revealed is really short.

    over time the community here at TMC has proven to be really good at ferreting out things like this and coming up with the most likely outcome, so i figured why not start a thread to see what people think. i will start with my own prediction of what i think it most likely:

    my prediction: as a result of new chemistry, design and/or packaging, the 2170 cells that tesla has designed that will go into the model 3 will have the capability to accept a much higher rate of charge, enabling the model 3 to be recharged significantly faster than existing teslas. elon's comments about 350 kwh superchargers being a mere child's toy and the recent blog about the doubling of the supercharger network are the best evidence for this advancement.

    however, i recognize this scenario still doesn't quite fit within elon's comments about the model s and model x always having the latest technology. in my mind in order to be able to provide this technology on the model 3, tesla would need to simultaneously announce that all model s and model x vehicles will be shipping with the new cells.

    initially i didn't see how this would be possible given the level of investment and downtime required at existing panasonic plants to transition from manufacturing 18650 cells to 2170 cells. however, as i got thinking about the gigafactory and their plans to scale, who is to say that tesla does not have the ability to scale up 2170 battery production in advance of the model 3 release such that tesla can provide enough 2170 batteries for the model s and model x while panasonic transitions their lines in japan?

    tesla noted in the most recent shareholder letter that they plan to start making batteries for inclusion in cars in the second quarter, and the gigafactory is planning on producing enough cells for 5k model 3's per week by the end of the year. given model s and x volumes are at about a 2k per week run rate and it is going to take until at least september until the model 3 reaches 2k per week volume, supplying model s and model x volumes from the gigafactory actually seems fairly doable to me -- i would love to hear thoughts from others.

    total side note, something i hardly ever see noted by investors is the margin expansion on model s and model x that tesla is going to enjoy when it does start building model s and model x with 2170 cells manufactured at gigafactory costs. can't wait until that quarterly earnings call.

    ok, so given i recognize that the above scenario very well may be pie in the sky hopes and dreams, here are a couple other ways that i could see the model 3 being realistically called significantly better than what was revealed:

    -if the model 3 had substantially better acceleration or range than announced at the base price point (i think that is also unlikely given elon's comments about model s and model x being tesla's fastest, longest range cars).

    -if the model 3 does in fact have a HUD or some other kind of advanced steering technology. i'm thinking of elon's spaceship tweet here, despite elon's recent tweets saying no HUD (i'll be honest though, i still feel like he was being a bit coy in his responses). before elon's tweets responding to inquiries about the HUD, the HUD made the most sense as the answer to this "in some ways significantly better question."

    in conclusion, i guess what i am really saying here is i have no idea in what ways the model 3 will be "a lot better" than what was revealed last year; anybody else have any ideas?

    surfside

    ps, if it isn't obvious between this post and my other post about upcoming catalysts, i had some time on my hands tonight -- was on a cross country flight and didn't feel like doing actual work...
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  2. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2006
    Messages:
    3,214
    Location:
    Slovenia, Europe
    A lot better === AP2 HW and SW.
     
    • Like x 3
  3. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    831
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    Exactly and it only took you seven words.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  4. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    6,788
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    Real cupholders ;-)
     
    • Funny x 3
  5. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    831
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    I hear you.My recently sold and rapidly appreciating Porsche 911(993) didn't have anything resembling a cupholder. As popular as that 20 year old car model remains today, I'm sure there are plenty of people who wouldn't want one solely because it didn't have any cupholders.
     
  6. austinEV

    austinEV Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2013
    Messages:
    3,226
    Location:
    Austin
    "a lot better" could really just refer to a finished interior and the elimination of dumb shortcuts taken on the prototypes. That is the simplest explanation.

    I am still on team "there will be a HUD" but I get that it is a tin-foil hat theory at this point. It is just SUCH a Tesla thing to do.
     
  7. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2015
    Messages:
    2,895
    Location:
    NV
    • Funny x 1
  8. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2012
    Messages:
    785
    Location:
    Florida
    I've tried to wrap my head around how the interior can feel 'spaceship-like', without a HUD, and with an interior that they are testing right now. His 'you won't care' comment has me perplexed.....he wouldn't have said that if he didnt have something up his sleeve.

    Totally think that all 2170 cells will be capable of super-high charging rates, and that all cars will get them....when, is the question.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. MitchJi

    MitchJi Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2015
    Messages:
    3,853
    Location:
    Marin County, CA
    In or before the M3 launch:
     

Share This Page