so one of the things that has been bugging me since the 4Q 2016 earnings call was elon's comments about the model 3 when pressed about a final reveal -- here is the exchange with the analysts:
"It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling, but with more polish and refinement and a few more details that are added. So it'll be better than what was unveiled and I guess in some ways it will be a lot better."
the part of the quote that has been bugging me is the comment that in some ways it is going to be a lot better than the car that was revealed.
what has made things more interesting is the extent that elon has tried to dispel misconceptions that the model 3 is the company's latest, greatest product (ala latest iphone). as part of dispelling those notions, elon has essentially told us that the model s and model x are always going to get the latest technology. as a result, i feel like the number of ways that the model 3 could possibly be "way better" than the car that was revealed is really short.
over time the community here at TMC has proven to be really good at ferreting out things like this and coming up with the most likely outcome, so i figured why not start a thread to see what people think. i will start with my own prediction of what i think it most likely:
my prediction: as a result of new chemistry, design and/or packaging, the 2170 cells that tesla has designed that will go into the model 3 will have the capability to accept a much higher rate of charge, enabling the model 3 to be recharged significantly faster than existing teslas. elon's comments about 350 kwh superchargers being a mere child's toy and the recent blog about the doubling of the supercharger network are the best evidence for this advancement.
however, i recognize this scenario still doesn't quite fit within elon's comments about the model s and model x always having the latest technology. in my mind in order to be able to provide this technology on the model 3, tesla would need to simultaneously announce that all model s and model x vehicles will be shipping with the new cells.
initially i didn't see how this would be possible given the level of investment and downtime required at existing panasonic plants to transition from manufacturing 18650 cells to 2170 cells. however, as i got thinking about the gigafactory and their plans to scale, who is to say that tesla does not have the ability to scale up 2170 battery production in advance of the model 3 release such that tesla can provide enough 2170 batteries for the model s and model x while panasonic transitions their lines in japan?
tesla noted in the most recent shareholder letter that they plan to start making batteries for inclusion in cars in the second quarter, and the gigafactory is planning on producing enough cells for 5k model 3's per week by the end of the year. given model s and x volumes are at about a 2k per week run rate and it is going to take until at least september until the model 3 reaches 2k per week volume, supplying model s and model x volumes from the gigafactory actually seems fairly doable to me -- i would love to hear thoughts from others.
total side note, something i hardly ever see noted by investors is the margin expansion on model s and model x that tesla is going to enjoy when it does start building model s and model x with 2170 cells manufactured at gigafactory costs. can't wait until that quarterly earnings call.
ok, so given i recognize that the above scenario very well may be pie in the sky hopes and dreams, here are a couple other ways that i could see the model 3 being realistically called significantly better than what was revealed:
-if the model 3 had substantially better acceleration or range than announced at the base price point (i think that is also unlikely given elon's comments about model s and model x being tesla's fastest, longest range cars).
-if the model 3 does in fact have a HUD or some other kind of advanced steering technology. i'm thinking of elon's spaceship tweet here, despite elon's recent tweets saying no HUD (i'll be honest though, i still feel like he was being a bit coy in his responses). before elon's tweets responding to inquiries about the HUD, the HUD made the most sense as the answer to this "in some ways significantly better question."
in conclusion, i guess what i am really saying here is i have no idea in what ways the model 3 will be "a lot better" than what was revealed last year; anybody else have any ideas?
surfside
ps, if it isn't obvious between this post and my other post about upcoming catalysts, i had some time on my hands tonight -- was on a cross country flight and didn't feel like doing actual work...
"It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling, but with more polish and refinement and a few more details that are added. So it'll be better than what was unveiled and I guess in some ways it will be a lot better."
the part of the quote that has been bugging me is the comment that in some ways it is going to be a lot better than the car that was revealed.
what has made things more interesting is the extent that elon has tried to dispel misconceptions that the model 3 is the company's latest, greatest product (ala latest iphone). as part of dispelling those notions, elon has essentially told us that the model s and model x are always going to get the latest technology. as a result, i feel like the number of ways that the model 3 could possibly be "way better" than the car that was revealed is really short.
over time the community here at TMC has proven to be really good at ferreting out things like this and coming up with the most likely outcome, so i figured why not start a thread to see what people think. i will start with my own prediction of what i think it most likely:
my prediction: as a result of new chemistry, design and/or packaging, the 2170 cells that tesla has designed that will go into the model 3 will have the capability to accept a much higher rate of charge, enabling the model 3 to be recharged significantly faster than existing teslas. elon's comments about 350 kwh superchargers being a mere child's toy and the recent blog about the doubling of the supercharger network are the best evidence for this advancement.
however, i recognize this scenario still doesn't quite fit within elon's comments about the model s and model x always having the latest technology. in my mind in order to be able to provide this technology on the model 3, tesla would need to simultaneously announce that all model s and model x vehicles will be shipping with the new cells.
initially i didn't see how this would be possible given the level of investment and downtime required at existing panasonic plants to transition from manufacturing 18650 cells to 2170 cells. however, as i got thinking about the gigafactory and their plans to scale, who is to say that tesla does not have the ability to scale up 2170 battery production in advance of the model 3 release such that tesla can provide enough 2170 batteries for the model s and model x while panasonic transitions their lines in japan?
tesla noted in the most recent shareholder letter that they plan to start making batteries for inclusion in cars in the second quarter, and the gigafactory is planning on producing enough cells for 5k model 3's per week by the end of the year. given model s and x volumes are at about a 2k per week run rate and it is going to take until at least september until the model 3 reaches 2k per week volume, supplying model s and model x volumes from the gigafactory actually seems fairly doable to me -- i would love to hear thoughts from others.
total side note, something i hardly ever see noted by investors is the margin expansion on model s and model x that tesla is going to enjoy when it does start building model s and model x with 2170 cells manufactured at gigafactory costs. can't wait until that quarterly earnings call.
ok, so given i recognize that the above scenario very well may be pie in the sky hopes and dreams, here are a couple other ways that i could see the model 3 being realistically called significantly better than what was revealed:
-if the model 3 had substantially better acceleration or range than announced at the base price point (i think that is also unlikely given elon's comments about model s and model x being tesla's fastest, longest range cars).
-if the model 3 does in fact have a HUD or some other kind of advanced steering technology. i'm thinking of elon's spaceship tweet here, despite elon's recent tweets saying no HUD (i'll be honest though, i still feel like he was being a bit coy in his responses). before elon's tweets responding to inquiries about the HUD, the HUD made the most sense as the answer to this "in some ways significantly better question."
in conclusion, i guess what i am really saying here is i have no idea in what ways the model 3 will be "a lot better" than what was revealed last year; anybody else have any ideas?
surfside
ps, if it isn't obvious between this post and my other post about upcoming catalysts, i had some time on my hands tonight -- was on a cross country flight and didn't feel like doing actual work...
