Elon's Model 3 Deception

[Dutchie]

I went into the wayback machine and found the original pricing of the Model S. I have not made a good comparison yet but on first glance I must say a lot of progress has been made in terms of pricing and what you get for your money. I made a couple of screenshots so you can see for yourself.

 

[gavine]

Your about to get flamed....
But, I kind of have to agree with you on most your point.
Some of the things Elon said can be easily spun to explain the seemingly contradictory nature, but others not so much. For example the "Oh so little faith" comment is accurate when applied to the long range model, but it is a $9k upgrade.... I am happy with the model 3 in every way except pricing. I mistakenly let myself believe I was getting a baby model S for $35K. It turns out it's really $50K. So, while I *might* still do it, that's a lot of money for my household. I was disappointed with the base model range and impressed with the long range model's range. It's just the money thing. Probably good news for me as a stock holder, less so as someone who has to pony up $10k over what I budgeted for...

Don't forget about the tax credits and incentives.

 

[cdub]

I wanted Model 3 to be anazing, but the base model barely conpetes with a Civic.

Even driving the base model 3 is going to be incredible.

 

[NerdUno]

Amazing to me how Tesla has been able to control the narrative. Everyone still calls the Model 3 a $35K car when the only ones currently in production cost 40% more. And for autonomous driving, add another 25%. Also strange that the glowing trade rag reviews didn't say a peep about AP2 or FSD, neither of which is much more than vaporware thus far.

 

[JeffK]

Amazing to me how Tesla has been able to control the narrative. Everyone still calls the Model 3 a $35K car when the only ones currently in production cost 40% more. And for autonomous driving, add another 25%. Also strange that the glowing trade rag reviews didn't say a peep about AP2 or FSD, neither of which is much more than vaporware thus far.

There's a rumor that FSD will get its first feature this week... might just be a rumor though.

 

[EinSV]

Amazing to me how Tesla has been able to control the narrative. Everyone still calls the Model 3 a $35K car when the only ones currently in production cost 40% more. And for autonomous driving, add another 25%. Also strange that the glowing trade rag reviews didn't say a peep about AP2 or FSD, neither of which is much more than vaporware thus far.

That is a ridiculous thing to say when the first production vehicles are scheduled to be delivered to non-employee customers in late October and the base $35K Model 3 is scheduled to be delivered only two months after that -- in December. Also really bizarre to call AP2 "vaporware."

FUD.

 

[NerdUno]

@EinSV and @SageBrush: Check back in once you actually own an AP2 vehicle.

 

[scaesare]

No, you can clearly imply something.

You mean like when I say: "Some people who start threads on TMC clearly have a hard time distinguishing reality from fantasy."?

 

[MissAutobahn]

1. the Model3 was no deception.
2. if your expectations of the hand-over event were too high, I feel sorry for you, but don't blame it on the car or Tesla or anyone else.

 

[montreid]

Tesla is actually on track and doing it right as it can for the masses -- Musk is right that this is 'production hell'. How does one meet a demand for 400,000 reservations? It can't. It can only prioritize what it can do and keep hitting its goals that it set out to do.

1. It needs to ramp up and satisfy delivery goals but keep an eye on the incentive and NOT cross 200,000 before Jan 1 on total cars delivered in USA to maximize the incentives.
2. Ramp up to production and maximize profits to fund Tesla further -- ie upsell S and X --do not canabalize those sales; maintain the base and get positive reviews and margins on the limited 3 sales
3. Get the promise of $35,000 car out there -- before incentives expire.
4. Honor the prior S+X buyers and employees for their prior commitments
5. Get P+D models out for enthusiasts to smack the BMW M3
6. Push the envelope on R+D for AP2 and Self Driving

--I believe the rollout scheme best suites the above goals as best as possible. The initial rampup all fully loaded cars with range expansion for those who want it. They simplified options across Tesla including X+S to streamline build speed (and maximize profits).
--The $35,000 car is ready to roll in January for the Day 1 -- and the FULL incentives will be there for until Mid-2018.
At $35,000 base alone BMW 330i base buyers will have a hard choice. with the incentives in place it'll steal a lot of sales from the mass market of civic and camry for the first quarter.
--As for AP2 -- it's parity for AP1 now and I'm hopeful for continued improvement and move toward local driving too.

One area not mentioned and wondering: back up alert and auto braking there or not.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Tesla is actually on track and doing it right as it can for the masses -- Musk is right that this is 'production hell'. How does one meet a demand for 400,000 reservations? It can't. It can only prioritize what it can do and keep hitting its goals that it set out to do.

1. It needs to ramp up and satisfy delivery goals but keep an eye on the incentive and NOT cross 200,000 before Jan 1 on total cars delivered in USA to maximize the incentives.
2. Ramp up to production and maximize profits to fund Tesla further -- ie upsell S and X --do not canabalize those sales; maintain the base and get positive reviews and margins on the limited 3 sales
3. Get the promise of $35,000 car out there -- before incentives expire.
4. Honor the prior S+X buyers and employees for their prior commitments
5. Get P+D models out for enthusiasts to smack the BMW M3
6. Push the envelope on R+D for AP2 and Self Driving

--I believe the rollout scheme best suites the above goals as best as possible. The initial rampup all fully loaded cars with range expansion for those who want it. They simplified options across Tesla including X+S to streamline build speed (and maximize profits).
--The $35,000 car is ready to roll in January for the Day 1 -- and the FULL incentives will be there for until Mid-2018.
At $35,000 base alone BMW 330i base buyers will have a hard choice. with the incentives in place it'll steal a lot of sales from the mass market of civic and camry for the first quarter.
--As for AP2 -- it's parity for AP1 now and I'm hopeful for continued improvement and move toward local driving too.

One area not mentioned and wondering: back up alert and auto braking there or not.

I've heard parking sensors, back up cameras, and auto braking included in the "safety" side.

 

[AssortedBread]

I think her over delivered on my expectations.

Case in point.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think her over delivered on my expectations.

Case in point.

The $35,000 Model 3 is great value when the standard model is good enough for you. Too bad no such car is on sale at this point in time, the $49,000 gets a lot more competition...

It's paid options are not great value, though, especially if you are not looking for loaded. But the base model is great value IMO, it will do well assuming no issues with EV adoption. I think Tesla will succeed with it.

That doesn't mean I like all the compromises Tesla made (the dash, the non-hatch etc.), but it will do well IMO.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

1. the Model3 was no deception.
2. if your expectations of the hand-over event were too high, I feel sorry for you, but don't blame it on the car or Tesla or anyone else.

IMO it was obvious to anyone following Tesla and their logic that the car would start with a more expensive option than the base model. For now it is a $49,000 car and that was IMO to be expected.

I'm not saying Tesla couldn't or shouldn't have been clearer about it, but IMO this was not a surprise. It just makes sense from a ramp-up/margin perspective that they are starting with a more expensive model.

 

[206er]

There's a rumor that FSD will get its first feature this week... might just be a rumor though.

there have been a lot of rumors over the last 15+ months...

 

[206er]

IMO it was obvious to anyone following Tesla and their logic that the car would start with a more expensive option than the base model. For now it is a $49,000 car and that was IMO to be expected.

I'm not saying Tesla couldn't or shouldn't have been clearer about it, but IMO this was not a surprise. It just makes sense from a ramp-up/margin perspective that they are starting with a more expensive model.

I'll admit that this is what disappoints me the most about this car, followed closely by what appears to be a lackluster base model and bundled options package.

Seems like you'd get significantly more car in an older, used $40k Model S.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'll admit that this is what disappoints me the most about this car, followed closely by what appears to be a lackluster base model and bundled options package.

Seems like you'd get significantly more car in an older, used $40k Model S.

Minus AP, parking sensors, etc.

 

[Sunshine State]

This is your comparison car ?!? It can barely get out of it's own way.
But I get it ... plastic upholstery is just that important to you.

Have you driven a 320i? It comes standard with vegan upholstery like Tesla offers in the premium upgrade. They are a pretty good car and don't have any trouble getting out of their own way.

 

[JSkrehot]

super disappointed, no way the base Model 3, which is the only version we can afford, is a better car than even a base Acura TLX. Yeah the TLX is an ICE, which sucks, but it comes with leather, heated seats, decent UI, and unlimited range.

My wife has been trusting my regurgitation of Elon's "this will be an amazing car, even at the base model" message, but after last night we're firmly in the market for an Accord or TLX.

Just a shame.

You did not specify if you actually put a deposit down, however, either way, at the first unveil, where Elon said "this will be an amazing car, even at the base model," the range estimate was 215, it is now 220, a ICE does not have unlimited mileage, you have to stop and fill up, which you can do at SC's or at hotel when staying the night in a 3. Charging (filling your tank) will cost 1/3 the price of gas too. You knew Tesla is vegan interior so this should not be a surprise, and the interface is NOWHERE near as nice as the 3. You aren't making much sense.

 

[206er]

You did not specify if you actually put a deposit down, however, either way, at the first unveil, where Elon said "this will be an amazing car, even at the base model," the range estimate was 215, it is now 220, a ICE does not have unlimited mileage, you have to stop and fill up, which you can do at SC's or at hotel when staying the night in a 3. Charging (filling your tank) will cost 1/3 the price of gas too. You knew Tesla is vegan interior so this should not be a surprise, and the interface is NOWHERE near as nice as the 3. You aren't making much sense.

I waited in line for 3+ hours on a chilly 3/31/16 morning in Seattle to put down a $1,000 deposit toward a $35k Tesla. Does that somehow further legitimize my disappointment?

I'm coming from a decently optioned, cheaper-than-a-Model 3 Acura. It's been relatively cheap to maintain, and at around 5,500 miles per year (my daily commuter is a bicycle), cheap to fuel/drive.