Elon's Model 3 Deception

[Waiting4M3]

One thing is the Model 3 ramp-up speed that probably changed his mind especially. They seem to be heading for a slow start.

It seems the rumors about the delays heard in April were correct. [Rumor] Significant Engineering Issues with Model 3

No surprises there.

Also, the speculation was correct that Tesla would launch with a larger battery for better margins during ramp-up.

Again, no surprises there.

I think it was just one rumor of a delay canceling out another rumor predicting 1000s of M3s in July. There were and still are just too many rumors around the M3. I'm glad Elon kept it short last night to not add more fuel to the rumor mill. Leave it to the PR people to publish stuff on Tesla.com, and let customers see the cars for themselves, no Elon needed.

 

[Spidy]

I just don't understand why Elon would say these things, when they don't match with reality.

He wanted to create as much Buzz as possible. He wanted people to think about how great these car is and speculate. He wanted people to go crazy about it. Tesla doesn't spend money on advertisement, so this is how they get attention. He wanted people to put down a reservation so they could later contact them and talk them into a entry level Model S.

And now the tide has turned and Tesla really wants to keep selling the Model S. So Elon does a 180° and puts the brakes on the Model 3 hype train.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think it was just one rumor of a delay canceling out another rumor predicting 1000s of M3s in July. There were and still are just too many rumors around the M3. I'm glad Elon kept it short last night to not add more fuel to the rumor mill. Leave it to the PR people to publish stuff on Tesla.com, and let customers see the cars for themselves, no Elon needed.

Be that as it may (the four-figure numbers came from Elon actually in a fiscal call, but that's beside the point), the ramp-up speed, FAQ wordings on S curve and talk of production hell does suggest that April alleged insider information pointing to issues with supplier parts may well have been legitimate.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Be that as it may (the four-figure numbers came from Elon actually in a fiscal call, but that's beside the point), the ramp-up speed does suggest that April alleged insider information pointing to issues with supplier parts may well have been legitimate.

Great, things changed, give the man a beer. What's important is what Tesla is saying now about the M3 production ramp. I'm looking forward to being able to buy my M3 in late Q4 or early Q1, SF Bay Area reservation before reveal pt1 on 3/31/16, I'm going for the 310mi model.

 

[calisnow]

I liked your comment. Where we diverge is Tesla is marketing the 3 (and I'm paraphrasing) as the "everyman's EV, one for the masses) etc. Part of the problem is a fair chunk of the masses don't actually like driving. They want an electric car that gets them from point A to B, yet has all this awesome self-driving tech they hear about every time Tesla is mentioned. They also want the most bang for their buck, and the intangible benefit you're describing doesn't get them to jump at what is now a roughly $50k car. Even if the 3 is a great car at $50k, this all still feels really disappointing when looking at it on paper.

I guess I am not getting what the disappointment is. You're getting 215 mile range, 100+mpge, the world's most advanced semiautonomous driving for $40K - before any tax incentives. This isn't a screaming value for these people? This isn't 'mass market'? They're upset the seats are manual and cloth? Wtf lol. Let them keep their Civics if they don't understand value.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Reveal part 2 already happened months ago. Call the waaaambulemce.

That wasn't a reveal concerning the Model 3. That was a solar roof event. What was revealed about the Model 3?

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

Entry Level Model S

2013 .................................................... Today​

Price*...........................................$69,500 ................................................ $69,500

EPA Range ..................................218 miles ..............................................249 miles
0-60 mph* ...................................5.5 seconds ..........................................4.3 seconds
Smart Air Suspension ............... option ($thousands) ............................ Included

Power Liftgate .............................option package items ......................... Included
Ambient Interior Lighting ........... part of a total package**
Nav w/real time traffic ............... cost ~$4.5K
HomeLink

Center Console ............................option ~$1K ........................................ Included

Active Safety Tech
Collision Avoidance ........................all............................................................all
Auto. Emergency Braking ..........unavailable........................................... Included
other a.s.t.

Side Mirrors
Power folding .................................all ..........................................................all
auto dimming ........................... unavailable ........................................... Included
heated

LED turning lights ..................... available (?) ......................................... Included

LED Fog Lights ......................... option.................................................... Included


Here's my point, limits to my TMC chart-making skills notwithstanding,

I was hoping for more range on the base model myself, but, I don't see Tesla's strategy as trying to game the public by offering as little as possible for as much as possible. Consider all the value added to the entry Model S over the past 4 years was without ANY competing long range EVs reaching the market in the Model S' class to date. That is, Tesla enhanced value by adding many many features, battery size, and improving performance for the same price, not because the market place required them to, but because with the passage of time, Tesla was able to add more capability to the Model S for less cost.

Similarly, in time, with the GF and Fremont reaching volume production (which means markedly lower costs for Tesla to produce the Model 3), it is all but certain that Tesla will offer more value because they will be able to. Producing an affordable EV that is compelling to as much of the market as possible is an ongoing process, and the tax incentives are there to help accelerate the process (yes, I realize not everyone qualifies for them, they are not perfect).

As I said, I was hoping myself for something like 240 miles of range for $35K, so I "feel that pain" some myself. If these specs are a deal breaker for anyone, that's their own call. Maybe you buy another car, or maybe you wait to see what kind of value Tesla will offer you in a couple of years. That said, I strongly sense that this is simply about the path to producing compelling mass market EVs being challenging, rather than Tesla trying to offer as little as possible for as much as possible.


* a few of these numbers on the 2013 Model S 60 are based off memory and may be slightly off.

** I'm not sure if all the parts of the original total package are now all included in the base vehicle.

I was just texting a good friend that I remembered the first performance model S (P85? ) did 0-60 in 4.8 sec. (also had no AP) We now have 5.1 sec. for $49k before tax credit... plus hardware of autopilot ready to be activated! .... not bad

Does anyone remember initial price of the P85 when it first came out?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I guess I am not getting what the disappointment is. You're getting 215 mile range, 100+mpge, the world's most advanced semiautonomous driving for $40K - before any tax incentives. This isn't a screaming value for these people? This isn't 'mass market'? They're upset the seats are manual and cloth? Wtf lol. Let them keep their Civics if they don't understand value.

I think the $35k base model is fine, price-wise. But you have to admit the options above that are hardly great value. As someone put it, margin recuperation time as expected. Expensive paint, massively expensive EAP for the class and for what it is... The first Model 3, after all, is a $49k car, not a $35k car. I made this point many months ago, because it was very expected.

Frankly, I think the options pricing is part of the anti-selling and making sure Model S/X are not adversely affected any more than can be avoided. They are very expensive options for a $35k starting car, considering that there is almost no granularity to them, meaning an audience that rarely buys loaded is forced to consider loaded just to get the few things they might otherwise want and need... So, I would not be surprised if the options become cheaper over time...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

That wasn't a reveal concerning the Model 3. That was a solar roof event. What was revealed about the Model 3?

Elon labelled the AP2 reveal as Model 3 reveal part 2.

I think that was just revisionistic history on his part. I seriously doubt the spaceship reveal really meant to be that AP2 unveil. No, I think we did not get the unveil part 2 that was inteded at all...

 

[JeffK]

That wasn't a reveal concerning the Model 3. That was a solar roof event. What was revealed about the Model 3?

October. AP2 was concerning Model 3 as well as S/X

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Garlan Garner]

October. AP2 was concerning Model 3 as well as S/X

Elon Musk on Twitter

But that wasn't a Model 3 reveal of any type.

 

[JeffK]

But that wasn't a Model 3 reveal of any type.

Elon disagrees. But since it affected all teslas, it was a model 3 reveal of information that they'd have potentially self driving capable hardware.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

But that wasn't a Model 3 reveal of any type.

Because in reality some of us don't believe Elon really was alluding to that event when he spoke of spaceship controls and reveal part 2 months earlier.

There was very likely supposed to be something else in the announcement pipeline, something spaceshippey, that got cancelled.

 

[JeffK]

There was very likely supposed to be something else in the announcement pipeline, something spaceshippey, that got cancelled.

Might have been this one but they may have felt it was too radical

 

[Garlan Garner]

Because in reality some of us don't believe Elon really was alluding to that event when he spoke of spaceship controls and reveal part 2 months earlier.

There was very likely supposed to be something else in the announcement pipeline, something spaceshippey, that got cancelled.

There have only been 2 Model 3 Reveals 3/31/16 and 7/28/17. It really doesn't matter what Elon thinks.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Might have been this one but they may have felt it was too radical

While certainly possible, I am still thinking the spaceship thing most likely is/was an augmented reality HUD that got delayed or cancelled.

 

[N5329K]

I think the $35k base model is fine, price-wise. But you have to admit the options above that are hardly great value. As someone put it, margin recuperation time as expected. Expensive paint, massively expensive EAP for the class and for what it is... The first Model 3, after all, is a $49k car, not a $35k car. I made this point many months ago, because it was very expected.

Frankly, I think the options pricing is part of the anti-selling and making sure Model S/X are not adversely affected any more than can be avoided. They are very expensive options for a $35k starting car, considering that there is almost no granularity to them, meaning an audience that rarely buys loaded is forced to consider loaded just to get the few things they might otherwise want and need... So, I would not be surprised if the options become cheaper over time...

Very well said.
Robin

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

Oh this picture takes me down memory lane

Might have been this one but they may have felt it was too radical

 

[MeTooFull]

I guess I am not getting what the disappointment is. You're getting 215 mile range, 100+mpge, the world's most advanced semiautonomous driving for $40K - before any tax incentives. This isn't a screaming value for these people? This isn't 'mass market'? They're upset the seats are manual and cloth? Wtf lol. Let them keep their Civics if they don't understand value.

A lot people lack perspectives. When Elon's master plan came out more than 10 years ago I can only dream of 35k ev with 200+ range. It's the same when people complaining about smart phone, when they don't have any idea what the original flip phone (moto startac, e.t.c.) cost. I would have give anything to have what we have now 10 or 20 years ago. I know I sounds like an old fart but many people just don't realized how good their life is with all these stuff they can get for so little money.

I have seen a tons of those Transformer looking new Civic around SoCal nowadays. It's not my taste but I am not surprise a lot of people like it and it's only around 20k. I bet I would have love the Civic if I am younger. But now I am older and lucky I have owned many different cars in my life, I get to the point that I don't really care about so call luxury or what not as long as the seat doesn't hurt my back after 10 minutes, and I am just happy that I can still move my the car seat myself instead of having a nurse move it or have to press some buttons.

Some people don't appreciate the value of EV and want to compare to other so call entry level luxury ICE car, I know Elon has done that for marketing reasons, but to someone like me the EV part is priceless as I couldn't imagine this will happen in our life time 20 years ago when EV1 came out (and died).

Life is too short, some people don't realized how lucky they are, they need to get some perspective and choose their own poison.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Life is too short, some people don't realized how lucky they are, they need to get some perspective and choose their own poison.

While I'm all for BEVs taking over the world - and rooting for the sustainability aspect - I think there is a bit of hyperbole and refusal to understand differing priorities in your post. It is definitely not just about people not understanding how lucky they are. That is the view of someone who needs and wants a BEV. Indeed, for that person this is a lucky time.

But not all people are that person, nor do they need to be. Other people have other priorities, other desires - that doesn't automatically make them ignorant, entitled or not knowing how lucky they are or anything of the sort. Surprise, surprise, different people actually care about different stuff - and that's OK...

Interesting anecdote: I was gushing something similar when I joined the Tesla community and TMC back in 2014 ("Car market literally down to 2 cars today"). I'm on my second Tesla these days. In recent times I've actually been driving more ICE than BEV. Go figure. The novelty certainly can wear off. Don't get me wrong, my Tesla is a great car, but in the end it is still just a car, not end all be all... for me. Others have other experiences and that's the way it goes.