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Elon's quote about FSD disappoints me

Sandiegodoug

Member
Apr 25, 2017
871
582
SAN Diego
What irks me a little is in 6/17 when we took delivery of our x, we were told all hardware was in place for fsd. We could just type in address and car would go there. On its own.
We were told that the regulators were the hold up. Never told we would need a new computer to make this possible.
 
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LukasSwan

Member
Nov 18, 2016
140
101
Halifax
Here it is EAP. Notice it says lane changes and summon from garage. All just EAP. Not FSD.
Screenshot_20190204-220449.png
 
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StellarRat

Active Member
Jan 8, 2014
1,492
1,341
Pacific
I can't help but think that true Full Self Driving under all conditions is a long way off. It will also be phased in bit by bit I think as well. Based on my experience with EAP I just couldn't trust FSD without a lot of real world use by the public before I'd literally trust it with my life. 99% of the time EAP is great, but it's done some funky stuff a couple times even on the freeway like Phantom Braking that could have caused me to be rear ended. Also, it makes quite a few mistakes regarding the speed limit around my area usually that means it's "speeding" or slowing down too late. These aren't obscure alleyways these are main roads with clearly marked speed limits and lots of traffic. I would think it should have plenty of evidence in it's database about the correct speed for these streets.
 

wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
"When will customers start to see full self-driving features?" and his answer just sounded too much like "Well we've already solved it on the highway...."
That's the thing, no they haven't. People paid, what, $3000 extra for FSD, $5,000 if you didn't pre-order. The only FSD feature turned on is the lane demarcation line turning red when someone is in your blind spot. While I did pre-pay for FSD, had I been told that a red line was it, I would have put that money against principal balance of the loan.I suspect it will be, aside from the V3 MPU, actions on speed limit signs, yield signs, stop signs, traffic signals, auto park auto summons from parking lot to curb. And, what they've announced, get in the car and do nothing while at home, it will drive to work (likely time window dependent). Get in car and do nothing, not from home, it will drive home. Note: in both cases a driver is in the driver seat and is the, in aviation terms, "Pilot In Command".
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,579
15,563
NC
The only FSD feature turned on is the lane demarcation line turning red when someone is in your blind spot. While I did pre-pay for FSD, had I been told that a red line was it, I would have put that money against principal balance of the loan.

That isn't an FSD feature. At all. It's a safety feature and every car gets it even without FSD or EAP.

There are currently 0 FSD features active on any end-user model 3.... they're not coming until HW3 is in cars.


Here it is EAP. Notice it says lane changes and summon from garage. All just EAP. Not FSD.

yes, and it already does both with EAP today (though it still requires confirmation of lane changes, which allegedly will no longer be required in the next few weeks per Elon- and summon to/from your garage is simply forward/back in and out of said garage)

Once that's done, EAP is feature-complete as far as promised features.

Mind you- they'll still work on making those features better/more reliable- but I'd expect any NEW features to be exclusively labeled as FSD features and only rolled out to FSD buyers/folks with HW3 computers.
 
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wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
Left turns are going to a monster to code against (double left turn with no lane markings, yields, etc.) though.
And here's the challenge there. Right now the software is focused on visible lane markers. We just had a sleet/snow/freezing rain even. On the main road out of our development, the salt obscures the yellow center line on the left. Without seeing that the steering wheel icon is not present. This is roughly the same situation with left exits on interstates. For FSD to work in all conditions (obviously not with obscured sensors) it needs to mature to see the road as a GIS sees it, latitude longitude, width, speed limit (already done) and lane configuration. This stuff is encoded in the GIS. But transitioning to computing where the lane is and is about to be, many of these issues disappear. I drive in RI a lot and their GIS is abysmally coded, in places saying it's 50 when speed limit signs say 30 and 30 when speed limit signs say 50. Those fixes are done, as the code in testing by Tesla employees, it does read speed limit signs and traffic signs. I don't know where computed lane info stands. But the bottom line is there is information available from multiple sources. The way to think about this is not how would one hard code responses in software as that isn't what is running. It's taking any situation, particularly those where current EAP collapses, and think like an adolescent in driver training, given what I see and what I know, what should I do right now as this is what the car is doing. The one difference is the car as access to physically where the lane is and physically where the car is. If it were a white-out or, for those down south, a grey-out (torrential downpour) a driver would not see the road any better than the car would. The car has digital data on where the road is. For those aviators on here, think IFR, FMS, and virtual cockpit. I really think this is doable in the near term.
 

Achilles

Member
Dec 5, 2017
86
116
arizona
Do you think they have the ability to change auto pilot functionality over the air without it technically downloading an update? I ask because NOA this morning on my commute seemed very much improved in regards to lane changes in traffic. It calls for an upcoming lane change and I was just waiting for it to ask for confirmation while I was right next to a car or in a position where I would not do it. But it seemed to plot out where to come in better and would wait until it passed said car and had a good opening. Just seemed different/improved. Maybe it came from the 50.6 update but I never thought it was this good before.
 

Drone Flyer

Active Member
Feb 22, 2016
1,127
258
Canada
I don't know if anyone else caught something that Elon said on the Q4 2018 conference call, but as an avid EAP user (and potential future FSD purchaser), I was honestly disappointed....


This implies that Tesla thinks that FSD is essentially "solved" on the freeway. I use EAP every day on my commute. It's certainly at it's best on the freeway, but I don't think it is FSD caliber yet. In stop and go traffic I trust it with my hands off the wheel, but at full speed with automatic lane changes? I think I was disappointed to hear that FSD wasn't going to take freeway driving to another level beyond EAP. It would have to in order for me to trust it more than EAP. Again, I love me some EAP like the biggest fanboy, but I understand it's limitations. I wouldn't call today's EAP ready to be labeled FSD!
10 years away as even Elon says. I feel sorry for those who bought into the FSD fantasy trip!
 
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wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
10 years away as even Elon says. I feel sorry for those who bought into the FSD fantasy trip!
We get the V3 chip for free. You recall the two existing vids of FSD? That'll be out this year under FSD. Don't feel sorry for us, it is us that feel sorry for you. They have the use of our money but you'll pay more to access it.
What'll be 10 yrs out perhaps is driverless FSD, a Tesla with no driver seat, just a table in middle with power and USBs and seats 8.
 

N5329K

Active Member
Aug 12, 2009
1,863
3,598
California
EAP isn't FSD. FSD requires the V3 chip which will be available to pre-purchasers of FSD. FSD is under the second round of employee testing. Not stunt drivers, not simulated driving by software engineers but Tesla employees. Even advanced summons seems to be likely an FSD feature as it is the car driving by itself in a crowded environment. That, I think, blurs the line between FSD and EAP. For myself, I've prepurchased both.
Wait...you aren't saying Tesla has confused aspiration with facts again, are you?
Robin
 

tomas

Out of warranty...
Oct 22, 2012
4,251
3,834
Chicago/Montecito
We get the V3 chip for free. You recall the two existing vids of FSD? That'll be out this year under FSD. Don't feel sorry for us, it is us that feel sorry for you. They have the use of our money but you'll pay more to access it.
What'll be 10 yrs out perhaps is driverless FSD, a Tesla with no driver seat, just a table in middle with power and USBs and seats 8.
That will be a sad day for me. It is interesting... some people buy this car for the path to autonomous. I bought all 3 Tesla I own for their amazing driving characteristics. I like and use the driver assist features in EAP. But didn’t buy FSD... no interest. So don’t feel sorry for me!
 
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diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,120
8,162
Terre Haute, IN USA
This implies that Tesla thinks that FSD is essentially "solved" on the freeway. I use EAP every day on my commute. It's certainly at it's best on the freeway, but I don't think it is FSD caliber yet. In stop and go traffic I trust it with my hands off the wheel, but at full speed with automatic lane changes? I think I was disappointed to hear that FSD wasn't going to take freeway driving to another level beyond EAP. It would have to in order for me to trust it more than EAP. Again, I love me some EAP like the biggest fanboy, but I understand it's limitations. I wouldn't call today's EAP ready to be labeled FSD!

Musk was not talking about EAP. He was talking about Nav on AP which is a step beyond EAP. Also, he was talking about a soon to be released update that will make the stalk confirmation optional. In that quote, Musk says that Nav on AP without stalk confirmation is able to handle all the needed elements of highway driving. The car is able to drive on the highway, pass slow cars, take a highway change, and get off the highway without you ever having to touch the wheel (except to dismiss nags). So from that point of view, yes, highway self-driving is "solved". This does not mean that the quality of Nav on AP will not improve. I am sure it will. I am sure auto steer will get smoother, taking off ramps will get smoother, etc... He is merely talking about solving the elements necessary to allow hands-free driving like being able to make a lane change without the driver needing to confirm or taking an off ramp without the driver needing to do it manually. Those things have been solved with NOA.

Nav on AP already takes highway driving to a level beyond EAP. I am sure with AP3, "FSD" will make Nav on AP even smoother.

Also, remember that the "FSD" package will apply to all roads not just highways. So when the "FSD" package is released, you will get hands-free driving on local roads as the car will be able to handle traffic lights, stop signs, intersections, parking lots etc...

My guess is that "FSD" will be a supped up version of Nav on AP where the car will not just handle traffic lights and stop signs but will also be able to make auto lane changes and turns at intersections to get you to your entered destination hands-free.
 
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Matias

Active Member
Apr 2, 2014
3,226
3,569
Finland
What irks me a little is in 6/17 when we took delivery of our x, we were told all hardware was in place for fsd. We could just type in address and car would go there. On its own.
We were told that the regulators were the hold up. Never told we would need a new computer to make this possible.
So you were lied.
 

wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
That will be a sad day for me. It is interesting... some people buy this car for the path to autonomous. I bought all 3 Tesla I own for their amazing driving characteristics. I like and use the driver assist features in EAP. But didn’t buy FSD... no interest. So don’t feel sorry for me!
Well, that was tongue-in-cheek. But, to your point, I think there are multiple constituencies within the Tesla community. We have a very low carbon footprint, we've owned Priuses since 2005, have GeoThermal climate control, and now a Model 3. When I was becoming proficient with geothermal technology the instructor had a saying, "lots of ways to make electricity, only one way to make oil". So sure, that was part of it, but the main driver was future-proofing my mobility and independence as well as AWD. We have a 260' driveway at a 30 degree incline. Bringing up the rear was the awesome driving characteristics. I first test drove an S, an absolutely awesome vehicle. Model 3s were still only on paper. The 3, when I got to test drive it, was perfect for our needs and wants. They are wide audience alpha testing FSD now. If I can get in the car and say drive to Stop and Shop (or barber) and the car drives there then, 'drive home' and the car does that. If I have to be in the driver seat and have some tension on the steering wheel. I'd still call it self driving. I do not advocate people driving when poop-faced drunk but it does happen. If they could slur out 'drive home' or the car, with no contrary verbal instructions, targets home, how many lives/yr would be saved? I'd call that FSD. I am confident we'll see that this year. As for what rolls out of Elon's mouth. He just got his ass handed to him for being loose with the media. Companies can't and shouldn't be too loose with 'the next release' features. It telegraphs to the competition what they need to best. So, to be sure, what I say implicitly is based on known facts on the ground and my knowledge of software and competitive advantage.
 
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wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
What irks me a little is in 6/17 when we took delivery of our x, we were told all hardware was in place for fsd. We could just type in address and car would go there. On its own.
We were told that the regulators were the hold up. Never told we would need a new computer to make this possible.
You've seen, no doubt, the two videos from Tesla on the car driving itself? That was based on the 'then' technology. I suspect the V3 chip is, at least in part, for IP and royalties, which they have been paying to for their existing technology. Remember, the S and X population is minuscule compared to the S, X, and 3 population. It would stand to reason they don't want to pay license fees for every V2+ car. If you bought FSD or buy FSD the chip is free.
 

wcorey

Active Member
Jul 11, 2018
1,641
645
Killingly, CT
I just wonder if coast to coast will ever happen?
That's a good question. The technology of V1 AP, that bought from, what was, Google could drive their fleet of Priuses from Amphitheater Drive in Mountain View to Reno NV 'driverless'. I think they actually got approval for no physical driver. In all their testing leading up to that they were required to have a driver present. That was on a single tank of gas. Driving cross country would require robotic SC that would automatically connect/disconnect the charge cable. That is a future. Remember too, the long haul fleets, UPS, FedEx, etc are itching for self driving fleets. It's coming!
 

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