Elon's quote about FSD disappoints me

[wcorey]

I wonder what I will see first.

The free hardware upgrade...or …… the end of the world?

From what I read free hardware is when FSD has been purchased. TWT.

 

[Jedi2155]

From what I read free hardware is when FSD has been purchased. TWT.

I find it funny how people say FREE AP3 HW IF YOU PURCHASED FSD.

Technically we pre-payed for AP3 HW with our FSD purchased, so it was never free, but what is owed to us with our purchase.

Unless of course you didn't pay for FSD and somehow ended up with AP3 hardware then thats free

 

[wcorey]

I find it funny how people say FREE AP3 HW IF YOU PURCHASED FSD.

Technically we pre-payed for AP3 HW with our FSD purchased, so it was never free, but what is owed to us with our purchase.

Unless of course you didn't pay for FSD and somehow ended up with AP3 hardware then thats free

Elon Musk on Twitter

How did you like the Volt? I almost got one but was impressed with the adaptive cruise control on the 2012 Prius Plugin Advanced. Plus we had Priuses since 2005.

 

[Garlan Garner]

From what I read free hardware is when FSD has been purchased. TWT.

I purchased it already.

Sooooo…...

 

[wcorey]

I purchased it already.

Sooooo…...

I was merely referencing

Elon Musk on Twitter

I do, honestly, believe we'll see it this year. It may, initially, have warts but so does the existing software.

 

[mike123abc]

I do not expect to get FSD in all conditions in the lifetime of my model 3. I did buy it though, and I would be happy if it would handle interstate and highway driving without move the steering wheel nag in good weather. Extra conditions above and beyond this I would consider a bonus.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't know if anyone else caught something that Elon said on the Q4 2018 conference call, but as an avid EAP user (and potential future FSD purchaser), I was honestly disappointed....


This implies that Tesla thinks that FSD is essentially "solved" on the freeway. I use EAP every day on my commute. It's certainly at it's best on the freeway, but I don't think it is FSD caliber yet. In stop and go traffic I trust it with my hands off the wheel, but at full speed with automatic lane changes? I think I was disappointed to hear that FSD wasn't going to take freeway driving to another level beyond EAP. It would have to in order for me to trust it more than EAP. Again, I love me some EAP like the biggest fanboy, but I understand it's limitations. I wouldn't call today's EAP ready to be labeled FSD!

I now think that Tesla's definition of FSD is very different from Level 3-5 autonomy. That's why they're always talking about "regulatory approval." Current self driving vehicle regulations hold the manufacturer liable for accidents that occur while the system is in use. Tesla is trying to get approval for more autonomy while still holding the human driver (passenger?) responsible for accidents. There doesn't seem to be any claim on the website that "FSD" will not require human monitoring.

 

[Knightshade]

I now think that Tesla's definition of FSD is very different from Level 3-5 autonomy. That's why they're always talking about "regulatory approval." Current self driving vehicle regulations hold the manufacturer liable for accidents that occur while the system is in use. Tesla is trying to get approval for more autonomy while still holding the human driver (passenger?) responsible for accidents. There doesn't seem to be any claim on the website that "FSD" will not require human monitoring.

Thought they removed FSD from the website?

What it used to say was:

The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat

and also-

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, the car will look atyour calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the enterance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Both of which say you won't need to do anything- having to monitor or take over would be part of anything to my read.

THAT said it's easy enough for Tesla to just never "finish" the feature... especially since the same description also said-

It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described will be available

 

[diplomat33]

I now think that Tesla's definition of FSD is very different from Level 3-5 autonomy. That's why they're always talking about "regulatory approval." Current self driving vehicle regulations hold the manufacturer liable for accidents that occur while the system is in use. Tesla is trying to get approval for more autonomy while still holding the human driver (passenger?) responsible for accidents. There doesn't seem to be any claim on the website that "FSD" will not require human monitoring.

I think you might be right. I posted the same thought in another thread. I think it is possible that Tesla is focused more on the capability of the system (ie how well can the car drive from A to B without the human ever touching the wheel?) rather than the levels of autonomy which focus more on the role of the driver. I think Tesla is right in this approach because capability is crucial. You gotta first make sure the car can drive from A to B without any driver intervention needed. Then, you can make the system more and more reliable where it is so good that the driver does not need to even pay attention anymore. The car would still have the same basic capabilities as before but because of the higher reliability, would be a higher level of autonomy.

It is worth noting that a self-driving car could be extremely capable and still ask the driver to pay attention. For example, you could have a system that asks the driver to pay attention "just in case" but in actual practice, the system is good enough that the driver rarely needs to intervene. After all, a car that can self-drive reliably 99.999% of the time would still require the driver to pay attention. So even if Tesla does release the "FSD" package as a L2 system because it asks the driver to pay attention, that does not automatically mean that the "FSD" would be bad. You could have a system that asks the driver to pay attention but is good enough that the driver can go hands-free 99.999% of the time.

 

[Jedi2155]

Elon Musk on Twitter

How did you like the Volt? I almost got one but was impressed with the adaptive cruise control on the 2012 Prius Plugin Advanced. Plus we had Priuses since 2005.

I loved the Volt, and was a huge Prius nerd (since 2001) prior to getting the Volt. I was never able to afford a Prius prior to the Volt so other than driving them for work, and and sibling cars, I don't have extensive experience with the car.

When I was in a position to get a new car, I was seriously debating a Prius with the Advanced Technology Package ($32k) vs. a Volt. The Volt won out because despite the increased engine efficiency, I figured the Volt would vastly more efficient as long as I never used the gas engine. I ended up turning my 3 year lease, with 33k on the odometer, and 32k on pure EV miles so that was accomplished. Plus on a Volt, while in EV mode, I could punch the accelerator to the limit without ever having the engine kick on and it introduced a love for performance I never had before. While in a Prius it would always be a mind game for trying to maximize MPG efficiency.

One thing to keep in mind is that EV motor efficiencies are relatively flat throughout the power range, while ICE engine efficiency (Brake Specific Fuel Consumption) has islands of efficiency. I don't have to worry about accelerating and being inefficient in an EV while in a convention gas vehicle you know you're way less efficient when punching it. The Volt was a no-brainer to me at that point.

 

[Az_Rael]

It is worth noting that a self-driving car could be extremely capable and still ask the driver to pay attention. For example, you could have a system that asks the driver to pay attention "just in case" but in actual practice, the system is good enough that the driver rarely needs to intervene. After all, a car that can self-drive reliably 99.999% of the time would still require the driver to pay attention. So even if Tesla does release the "FSD" package as a L2 system because it asks the driver to pay attention, that does not automatically mean that the "FSD" would be bad. You could have a system that asks the driver to pay attention but is good enough that the driver can go hands-free 99.999% of the time.

I think that is the human factors problem. The reality is if my car does it right 1000 times, then messes up once, as a human. I am going to pay less attention. I personally probably wouldn't look away from the road, but I am only going to have a light hand on the wheel and may be more relaxed instead of hyper watching the car's every move. That will make me slower to respond in an emergency situation.

Sure, we all do that stuff now when driving manually, say when you are on a long open highway with no one around, but a really really good Level 2 system might make me me too relaxed in heavy traffic or other situations that require heightened awareness as a driver.

It will remain to be seen if the eventual court cases end up allowing Tesla to not have liability for a Level 2 "in name only" system that actually performs as Level 3 for the majority of situations.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I loved the Volt, and was a huge Prius nerd (since 2001) prior to getting the Volt. I was never able to afford a Prius prior to the Volt so other than driving them for work, and and sibling cars, I don't have extensive experience with the car.

When I was in a position to get a new car, I was seriously debating a Prius with the Advanced Technology Package ($32k) vs. a Volt. The Volt won out because despite the increased engine efficiency, I figured the Volt would vastly more efficient as long as I never used the gas engine. I ended up turning my 3 year lease, with 33k on the odometer, and 32k on pure EV miles so that was accomplished. Plus on a Volt, while in EV mode, I could punch the accelerator to the limit without ever having the engine kick on and it introduced a love for performance I never had before. While in a Prius it would always be a mind game for trying to maximize MPG efficiency.

One thing to keep in mind is that EV motor efficiencies are relatively flat throughout the power range, while ICE engine efficiency (Brake Specific Fuel Consumption) has islands of efficiency. I don't have to worry about accelerating and being inefficient in an EV while in a convention gas vehicle you know you're way less efficient when punching it. The Volt was a no-brainer to me at that point.

Your chart seems to show the opposite of what you're saying. Maximum efficiency is at maximum load. That must be a plot from an engine that is very optimized for efficiency instead of power.
High performance turbocharged engines run rich and open loop at high throttle inputs so they are much less efficient when driven hard.

It will remain to be seen if the eventual court cases end up allowing Tesla to not have liability for a Level 2 "in name only" system that actually performs as Level 3 for the majority of situations.

This is why I don't think they'll ever release a Level 2 system for city driving. The type of accident could be much worse than running into the back a firetruck or a gore point. Imagine the car running a red light and taking out a pedestrian and Tesla making the case that the "driver" should have been paying attention during the few seconds necessary to determine that the car wasn't going to stop.