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EM on Twitter: 'I think we will probably stop at 100 kWh on battery size'
- Thread starter Model S M.D.
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mikeash
Active Member
You're totally right, I should have added "and chemistry" on there. The takeaway is you can't play games with how you divide up the battery and see gains. You improve charging speed by increasing capacity, cooling, or different chemistry.
Lex
Member
There is another possibility to consider, that the tweet is meant to throw you off the trail of the P120D 
pretty sure not even wk057 will ruin the next battery surprise
pretty sure not even wk057 will ruin the next battery surprise The real holy grail is going to be expanding the supercharger network as well as making charging faster than it is. If it takes you 10 minutes to get an 80% charge then suddenly having a 150kwh battery doesn't really mean as much. It would also allow more cars into each supercharger station and would be cheaper as they wouldn't need to pack more batteries into the cars.
Apparently the technology is there at least in it's infancy. I really think 10 years from now we'll have seen substantial improvements in charging speed relative to battery capacity.
Apparently the technology is there at least in it's infancy. I really think 10 years from now we'll have seen substantial improvements in charging speed relative to battery capacity.
I think tesla should stop when they make a battery big enough so we don't have to charge at all in a single day. This usually means at least 700-800 miles range. This is probably the realistic range someone who do in a day before stopping. So I doubt they will stop increasing battery capacity.
I would like to see where battery can be charged at 120KW continuously until 300 miles range. Right now even with the 100KWh battery I think there will be tapering before hitting the 300 miles range. Give us a battery so you don't see tapering until after 300 miles range!
Also how else would they get people to upgrade?
I would like to see where battery can be charged at 120KW continuously until 300 miles range. Right now even with the 100KWh battery I think there will be tapering before hitting the 300 miles range. Give us a battery so you don't see tapering until after 300 miles range!
Also how else would they get people to upgrade?
This is the ticket... speed ok, but range? 300 is plenty if charging takes a little more than a gas station stop.
People leaving for work with an empty all the time... imagine all gas stations adding a EV super super charger for $5 you get a 50% charge in 5-10 mins or something... Why not?
My lexus ct200h is great but it only takes like 8 gallons and 300 miles... i fill up all the time (for $12 bucks, but still)... if it was at night in the garage it would be less work.
Nomad
Member
Perhaps he meant they'll stick with 100kWh for the current cell architecture. They already had to redesign the pack to get 100kWh, so there's not much else they can do. Once the Gigafactory is fully operational, the kWh ceiling will change.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I think 100kWh is fine. What I'd like to see next is:
- faster charging
- less weight
- cheaper
- hidden reserve
Ridiculous. 700-800 miles of range? Why? So the very few people who ever want to drive that many miles a day without stopping for some reason can? What is that, like 1 percent of all drivers? With electrics, you can charge at home everyday so you're always at full at the start of the day. With Tesla, the Super Chargers do an excellent job of putting massive miles into the battery to extend range. Why in the world would Tesla want to weigh their cars down with excess battery (with all the expense that researching and manufacturing that battery would incur) for additional battery space 90 percent of customers will never, ever touch?
100 kWh for the S is plenty for the foreseeable future.
400 miles rated range falls into the ballpark of a large percentage of ICEs. 500 miles range gives you a healthy range in cold climates in the winter, plus allows for Autobahn driving and the fastest US interstates without having to stop every 100 miles or so to recharge. The range on an electric declines faster with speed than an ICE.
I agree 700-800 miles range is probably overkill.
I agree 700-800 miles range is probably overkill.
James Anders
Member
Imagine a future 100kWh pack that weighs half as much as the current 100kWh pack. 1000 lbs instead of 2000 lbs. That will increase range and performance quite a bit.
For posts like this, i wish there was a disagree in addition to the dislike button. i like your thoughts and I appreciate your contribution. But 700 miles is ridiculous.
Picked up by Teslarati, with some interesting and logical insights: Tesla's 100 kWh battery pack is as big as it gets (for now)
There are many areas where there are no Superchargers and likely won't be either. The US has a lot of pretty out of the way places, and I don't even want to get into the issues of driving off the beaten track in Canada. On top of that is the substantial range penalty in cold weather. 100 kWh and the Supercharger system is adequate for most uses, but certainly cannot handle some pretty common edge conditions.
RogerHScott
Active Member
Isn't an "edge condition", pretty much by definition, "uncommon"? I don't think think anyone doubts that some people could
benefit from an arbitrarily large range; the question is does it make sense for Tesla to to pursue such range given the practical
and opportunity costs involved?
I do not think 800 mile rated range is overkill at all. Rated range only works in ideal conditions. Consider mountainous terrain, high speed driving and inclement weather, all of which have lethal impact on achieving anything close to rated range. Now think about all those people who drive on Autobahns in the winter through mountains. There are more of them than we think. Then there are even in North America great swaths of Interstate highways where the prevailing speed are 80-85 MPH. Now imagine taking Interstate 70 from Hays, KS to Denver, CO. That is 340 miles and 3200 ft elevation rise. According to EVTripPlanner a P85D at only 1.2x speed limit would use 153 kWh on the trip, and that does not consider cold weather.
Let us please realize that if we expect any Tesla to replace an equivalent ICE the efficiency must increase dramatically (weight reductions through cell energy density, pack efficiency and tons of electrical improvements. If it were todays cars we'd need to pack at least 200 kWh into teh same weight in order to do that dependably. Today that trip an dozens of similar ones are perfectly feasible with our cars, but we must stop twice to Supercharge on the way up hill, especially in cold, windy weather.
I would submit that it does not for less than 5% corner cases. At least not for now.
Sure, at which point the first person that crashes their Model S 300D, because they drove for 16 hours straight, peed themselves and lost control of the car, is going to sue Tesla for enabling that much range. Since Tesla representative didn't come to their house (putting it in the manual and on the warning screen isn't enough), explain and warn them that it is dangerous to do such a long drive, they will get a lot of press, and CR will call for the reduction in range to be administered remotely. And a bladder sensor to be installed in each EV.
Actually I think nearly all people are already equipped with bladder sensors so possibly CR should only require a semi-asutonomous child's voice saying "Daddy, Mommy I gotta go now!!!". Such a mandatory warning might also be accompanied by a direct caffeine injection system to augment the alert. These two steps will resolve most such risks, but might also obviate the need for all that range.
I'm not sure how you live with a gas car now, given that most gas cars are well under a third of that value
If most gas cars don't even have the range, and it costs a tiny amount to put in a larger gas tank, then why would BEVs ramp up battery size substantially at a cost of many thousands of dollars? Especially when battery size increases weight and is partially self-defeating.
When battery costs become a small fraction of what they are, you'll see 500+ mile range batteries. Until then, expect to see costs decline before gigantic batteries come around.
