sundaymorning
Active Member
As long as we can get to 2,500 for Q1, we’ll worry about Q2 when we get there. But hanks for the info. low level or not, the individual can be a good resource to all the rumors flying around.
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I believe insider information usually only pertains to executive level decisions and known facts that aren’t yet made public. The OP’s information contains few actual facts, it is just educated guesses from someone lower down on the food chain. I’m not a securities lawyer, but I doubt what the OP posted could be construed as insider information.
So my take on the OP info. My experience is that most companies appear totally screwed up from an employee’s perspective. Indeed the smarter you are as an employee, the more things you see that are completely bolluxed up. And yet, most companies manage to carry on and even make profits while all these crap storms rage. After many years of experience, old timers realize that a company need not execute anywhere near perfectly to do well.
It sounds to me like the OP’s source simply hasn’t learnt this lesson yet.
Also, we know for a fact that Elon is personally involved in the battery line woes. Anyone want to bet against Elon figuring out an acceptable solution to a problem he knows about and is focused on? Anyone?
I don’t know, I’ve just seen this particular movie play out at Tesla way, way too often. Here’s a partial list of really bad problems that Elon has managed his way out of, all while growing the stock price 30x:
Decide to build Roadster using off the shelf components. Oops, all off the shelf components suck.
Try and fail to hire a company to custom build motor. No experienced motor manufacture can do it.
Outsource 2 speed transmission to several companies. All fail.
Initial Roadsters have so many problems, they almost each have to be individually fixed, and retrofitted multiple times.
2008 stock meltdown and the biggest recession since 1929. Capital markets shut hard while Tesla needs cash to make next payroll.
How can Tesla possibly build a factory big enough for Model S production?
Yeah, you can hand build a Roadster, but you can’t transition to a true assembly line.
Model X is a disaster due to leaky hydraulic Falcon wing doors.
And so on. Actually, Tesla seems to have had fewer disasters on their plate the bigger they get. A hiccup on the battery pack line is small potatoes compared to what they’ve been through.
It sounds to me like the OP’s source simply hasn’t learnt this lesson yet.
Also, we know for a fact that Elon is personally involved in the battery line woes. Anyone want to bet against Elon figuring out an acceptable solution to a problem he knows about and is focused on? Anyone?
I don’t know, I’ve just seen this particular movie play out at Tesla way, way too often. Here’s a partial list of really bad problems that Elon has managed his way out of, all while growing the stock price 30x:
Decide to build Roadster using off the shelf components. Oops, all off the shelf components suck.
Try and fail to hire a company to custom build motor. No experienced motor manufacture can do it.
Outsource 2 speed transmission to several companies. All fail.
Initial Roadsters have so many problems, they almost each have to be individually fixed, and retrofitted multiple times.
2008 stock meltdown and the biggest recession since 1929. Capital markets shut hard while Tesla needs cash to make next payroll.
How can Tesla possibly build a factory big enough for Model S production?
Yeah, you can hand build a Roadster, but you can’t transition to a true assembly line.
Model X is a disaster due to leaky hydraulic Falcon wing doors.
And so on. Actually, Tesla seems to have had fewer disasters on their plate the bigger they get. A hiccup on the battery pack line is small potatoes compared to what they’ve been through.
I tend to agree with your sentiment. My only hesitation is that when I asked whythey didn't think they would get to 5000, they didn't express frustration but went silent. I will probe again in a month or so.
Well, you know your source better than I do, but they could have just gone silent just because they didn’t have a good answer to your question.
Btw, there was a similarly sourced report about 3-4 months ago saying that Panasonic was in a world of hurt ramping up cell production at the gigafactory. Poorly trained and/or inexperienced line workers were causing innumerable delays. That story seems to have died down, but who knows, maybe these battery pack production issues gave Panasonic a reprieve and was masking Panasonic’s problem further down the chain.
Regardless my point still stands. All problems of this type can be fixed. It isn’t as if Tesla is bumping up against something that can’t be fixed. See Bosch and their divestiture of the solid state battery company they bought for an example of a problem that can’t easily be fixed.
Big picture, I don’t see any roadblocks for Tesla. Indeed, the more we see what their competitors are doing, the better it looks for Tesla.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
I believe in the long term prospects of Tesla.
I believe no one can accurately predict short term moves in TSLA, let alone predict that after Q1 would be a good time to sell.
Much less so from a limited viewpoint of a 'normal' employee (not EM or JB ...).
Tidbits of information or opinion can help us build our own picture or model. But I hesitate to follow the logic presented here.
I believe no one can accurately predict short term moves in TSLA, let alone predict that after Q1 would be a good time to sell.
Much less so from a limited viewpoint of a 'normal' employee (not EM or JB ...).
Tidbits of information or opinion can help us build our own picture or model. But I hesitate to follow the logic presented here.
This is my take as well. Since that level of production is entirely new to the company, it's probably really unclear how 5000/wk happens until it actually does.
Thanks. I still don’t get that/disagree. The mere fact that Grohmann was public information can’t be bad for the stock. I mean, it was already made public, so this person would have already seen the effect.
I agree with the sales timing - that doesn’t really matter so much as the idea that the person saw something in the public information that made her want to sell.
Perhaps OP has more insight
sweter
Member
This.
My experience is the same and I'm on the way learning this stuff. Day to day disagreeing with my CEO but in the end usually it works out her way and everyone is happy. Lower level employees very often don't see the forest for the trees, don't have all the information and only judge based on current situation, not future plans (maybe not aware of them). Also, I'd bet that 90% of employees don't follow the company financials, stocks and definitely don't listen in on CC's, that's why they don't know if some info is public or not.
That's why any kind of such info/rumours should be taken with a filter. Very often informative and might give good insight on the internal workings of a company, but I wouldn't act on it.
Also, case in point, many even high-level Tesla employees have left over the years to start their own businesses, probably thinking "I see all these problems at Tesla and I know how to solve them, but nobody seems to care, I'll just do my own thing and show them how it's done!". But after initial announcements we don't really hear about them afterwards.
Sudre
Active Member
The source could possibly see that there are enough trained and qualified people to barely make 2500 so they feel that 5K in impossible. They have no clue how automated the new equipment is or if there is a slight change in pack design. (what pack design level are we on with the S&X?)
Once the new equipment is in place and running the source may not realize that his/her job is basically over. Another piece of equipment will be ordered to put the semi-auto line out of commission.
The source may also notice that the Panasonic side is barely keeping up with cells so 5K is impossible in their view because 2500 is not even possible yet. They don't realize that maybe Panasonic is only making enough cells to supply the needs of pack creation for Fremont, however if the semi-auto side is able to make 2500 packs now and they simply don't have the cells to do it I can understand the skepticism. Getting a new faster piece of equipment will be exactly what the 8-k said and Tesla will announce, "we have run the lines at an equivalent of 5000 packs." Yet again maybe the bigger picture is Fremont is doing tweaks and only 1000 packs are needed currently. The source may not know that the other much larger amount of cells is currently going to supply power pack creation which is a different chemistry. They probably don't know what's sitting in the aging room now.
In other words and in my opinion.... the worker/source is in the weeds. They have no clue what the bigger picture is. Not to say they are wrong but to have no answers. Maybe they don't want to reveal too much in fear of losing their job but when they find out that we know about the new equipment and it's product rate, I would expect a simple reply to defend the position rather than clamming up.
"We don't have enough employees." (fixed with more automation)
"We don't have enough cells." (fixed by shifting resource needs)
"We don't have enough space." (Would stop production while semi-line is swapped or tweaked)
"We don't have a stable enough power source." ((fixed with solar and battery backup) FYI: they are adding solar now)
Not knowing the reason at all means I have no way to play this information and it is not usable to me.
Once the new equipment is in place and running the source may not realize that his/her job is basically over. Another piece of equipment will be ordered to put the semi-auto line out of commission.
The source may also notice that the Panasonic side is barely keeping up with cells so 5K is impossible in their view because 2500 is not even possible yet. They don't realize that maybe Panasonic is only making enough cells to supply the needs of pack creation for Fremont, however if the semi-auto side is able to make 2500 packs now and they simply don't have the cells to do it I can understand the skepticism. Getting a new faster piece of equipment will be exactly what the 8-k said and Tesla will announce, "we have run the lines at an equivalent of 5000 packs." Yet again maybe the bigger picture is Fremont is doing tweaks and only 1000 packs are needed currently. The source may not know that the other much larger amount of cells is currently going to supply power pack creation which is a different chemistry. They probably don't know what's sitting in the aging room now.
In other words and in my opinion.... the worker/source is in the weeds. They have no clue what the bigger picture is. Not to say they are wrong but to have no answers. Maybe they don't want to reveal too much in fear of losing their job but when they find out that we know about the new equipment and it's product rate, I would expect a simple reply to defend the position rather than clamming up.
"We don't have enough employees." (fixed with more automation)
"We don't have enough cells." (fixed by shifting resource needs)
"We don't have enough space." (Would stop production while semi-line is swapped or tweaked)
"We don't have a stable enough power source." ((fixed with solar and battery backup) FYI: they are adding solar now)
Not knowing the reason at all means I have no way to play this information and it is not usable to me.
eyedrop
Member
I'm in it for the long game. As long as everyone remains bullish and Tesla can keep afloat with the help of the enthusiastic customers and investors, eventually the production bottlenecks will become sorted and the sales will simply explode. The company is already viral.... And when looking at Tesla's control of entire ecosystem of the Supercharger network, solar and battery storage, and by everything developed and manufactured in house, they will become an extremely profitable company, and will likely have a monopoly in the sector, while everyone else simply rides out the legacy of yesteryear for as long as possible...
dennis
Model S Plaid
Insider information is deemed to be any material, non-public information. It doesn't matter if it comes from the CEO or the janitor.
Captain literal says:
Here that y'all? no panic selling.
Only indicates one should not sell one's stock before April 1st...
Here that y'all? no panic selling.
I'm still fascinated by the Model 3 journey and want Tesla to succeed in general, so yes, I still follow and contribute to this forum.
I've been particularly interested in the number of issues that have arisen for new 3s, from 12v battery problems to cracked roof glass. Had we kept our reservation and somehow ordered a $49k+ car, any of these issues happening to us would've caused my wife to deem the car a waste of money and demand that we replace it asap with something more reliable/better build quality (we come from a Honda/Acura background).
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