End of quarter delivery disruption coming up?

[Hookemhorns]

Assuming the bill passes with EV tax credit of ?? (as of now $8K) on MY and M3 purchases made after Dec 31 (i.e. starting next year), I can imagine tens of thousands of new owners who have a delivery scheduled the last few weeks of December insisting their delivery be delayed until January. I'm not so sure that in the face of an $8,000 savings if Tesla refused to delay the delivery I wouldn't give up my $250 order fee, cancel the order, and place it again. Some people wouldn't do that because they don't want to go to the end of the line, but I imagine a lot of people will be doing whatever it takes to move their delivery to January.

I can just see a nose dive in deliveries as the end of the quarter approaches. Tesla always does an end of quarter push, so we have opposing forces at work here.

Maybe they are anticipating this and will load up foreign deliveries this quarter. Or even offer an incentive to take a delivery at the end of this year? Or not care because the sales are there, and bookkeeping by quarters is just an artificial accounting device; as an investor I would forgive lower deliveries this one quarter since I expect the revenue to be made up in the very next quarter.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Assuming the bill passes with EV tax credit of ?? (as of now $8K) on MY and M3 purchases made after Dec 31 (i.e. starting next year), I can imagine tens of thousands of new owners who have a delivery scheduled the last few weeks of December insisting their delivery be delayed until January. I'm not so sure that in the face of an $8,000 savings if Tesla refused to delay the delivery I wouldn't give up my $250 order fee, cancel the order, and place it again. Some people wouldn't do that because they don't want to go to the end of the line, but I imagine a lot of people will be doing whatever it takes to move their delivery to January.

I can just see a nose dive in deliveries as the end of the quarter approaches. Tesla always does an end of quarter push, so we have opposing forces at work here.

Maybe they are anticipating this and will load up foreign deliveries this quarter. Or even offer an incentive to take a delivery at the end of this year? Or not care because the sales are there, and bookkeeping by quarters is just an artificial accounting device; as an investor I would forgive lower deliveries this one quarter since I expect the revenue to be made up in the very next quarter.

I think with their 2021Q2 financials, Tesla already indicated a reduction in deliveries in 2021Q4.

 

[jhrorsman1]

I have a delivery date set for Dec 13-31 on Model 3, and then a Model Y slated for Dec 31-Jan 13th. That's a $16k difference based on two weeks. While I have already waited months, I can't sacrifice that sort of incentive to take delivery early.

 

[noah82]

I thought this, but in reality Tesla will just send everything that they produce up to Canada to fill the massive backlog up there since they don't have any tax incentives as of now.

 

[JayhawkCRNA]

I’m in same boat. My MYP has EDD of Dec15-31. I have an email into my SA to ask about if I can delay

 

[Tesraki]

I thought this, but in reality Tesla will just send everything that they produce up to Canada to fill the massive backlog up there since they don't have any tax incentives as of now.

I sure hope so. They could also offer earlier deliveries to people in the queue who just want the car and would forego the tax credit. My delivery window is 12/20-12/31, and I would like to push back but not go to the end of the line. I didn't buy expecting a tax credit, but if there is one I would feel wasteful not going for it.

 

[Kairide]

I may be against the grain on this one, but I don't think Tesla should let people delay delivery for this reason. When you order, you're fully aware of the current pricing and any incentives. Depending on when you ordered, the price increases may negate the point of sale or tax incentive offered anyways. If you're not happy with what is offered when you order, then you should wait. Either take delivery based on the financials of what was offered when you ordered or cancel and move to the back of the line.

 

[noah82]

I may be against the grain on this one, but I don't think Tesla should let people delay delivery for this reason. When you order, you're fully aware of the current pricing and any incentives. Depending on when you ordered, the price increases may negate the point of sale or tax incentive offered anyways. If you're not happy with what is offered when you order, then you should wait. Either take delivery based on the financials of what was offered when you ordered or cancel and move to the back of the line.

When I ordered the car in September, Tesla said that the estimated delivery was February. I was ok with this because I was pretty sure any potential EV credit wasn't going to be active until 1/1/22. If Tesla offers me delivery in 2021 even though my order was not estimated until 2022, do you think I should be forced to take delivery and miss out on the tax credit?

 

[Kairide]

When I ordered the car in September, Tesla said that the estimated delivery was February. I was ok with this because I was pretty sure any potential EV credit wasn't going to be active until 1/1/22. If Tesla offers me delivery in 2021 even though my order was not estimated until 2022, do you think I should be forced to take delivery and miss out on the tax credit?

That's a different scenario, if you ordered your car and were given an EDD prior to the end of the year then you should take delivery or cancel and end up at the back of the line. I don't think you should be forced to take delivery early though. Ordering a few months ago you locked in a lower price, but may miss out on point of sale or tax incentives. Ordering later, you got a higher price, but may have point of sale or tax incentives. There's always pros and cons when you order, you rarely can have your cake and eat it too.

 

[NotElunMosk]

I may be against the grain on this one, but I don't think Tesla should let people delay delivery for this reason. When you order, you're fully aware of the current pricing and any incentives. Depending on when you ordered, the price increases may negate the point of sale or tax incentive offered anyways. If you're not happy with what is offered when you order, then you should wait. Either take delivery based on the financials of what was offered when you ordered or cancel and move to the back of the line.

It'd be one thing if Tesla didn't allow for delays at all. However, as it stands today, customers can ask to delay delivery.

But with how Tesla moves through orders, there's a chance that for every 5 people that request a delay, 1 person will accept an early delivery. Those who want to wait can wait and those who want it earlier may have a chance to move up in line.

 

[torifile]

That's a different scenario, if you ordered your car and were given an EDD prior to the end of the year then you should take delivery or cancel and end up at the back of the line. I don't think you should be forced to take delivery early though. Ordering a few months ago you locked in a lower price, but may miss out on point of sale or tax incentives. Ordering later, you got a higher price, but may have point of sale or tax incentives. There's always pros and cons when you order, you rarely can have your cake and eat it too.

It’s a car. Let’s not get all “should” this and that.

 

[Kairide]

It’s a car. Let’s not get all “should” this and that.

Not really understanding your thought process here. There’s no point in a forum about cars, if there isn’t any “should” this and that.

 

[torifile]

Not really understanding your thought process here. There’s no point in a forum about cars, if there isn’t any “should” this and that.

Kinda a black and white way to view things, isn’t it?

 

[westernvine]

With the proposed 400/600/800k income limits to quality for the credit, though, there's plenty of coastal folk who won't be able to qualify. There will be plenty of people ready to take delivery.

 

[Viv1984]

I may be against the grain on this one, but I don't think Tesla should let people delay delivery for this reason. When you order, you're fully aware of the current pricing and any incentives. Depending on when you ordered, the price increases may negate the point of sale or tax incentive offered anyways. If you're not happy with what is offered when you order, then you should wait. Either take delivery based on the financials of what was offered when you ordered or cancel and move to the back of the line.

It was supposed to be 4-6 weeks when I ordered. It's about to hit 12 and still no VIN. If they are going to delay by several months, they sure as hell better let me. I would have taken the car in September (promised delivery window) tax credit or not, but if they're delaying to December, I better be able to delay to January.

 

[tashtibet]

if you are stuck with incentive-there're people who are ever ready to take delivery-with incentive it's gonna get crowded. Are you going to stay home put just because of Govt incentive-you'll get your car late 2022.

 

[pepperoni]

If congress has any sense they will make the tax incentive retroactive knowing that their law will otherwise artificially depress Tesla’s Q4 earnings. In theory it would hurt GM too, though I don’t think they’re selling any Bolts right now. Wait, did I say if congress has any sense?

My Y order is currently scheduled to show up in January (it was initially scheduled for April 2022). If my order gets pulled in to December and there is a $8K incentive for me to delay, you bet I’ll delay. If it means waiting until next September to get my car, I would still do that. But I don’t believe Tesla would be placing my order at the back of the line Though they certainly could if they really wanted to play some mind games with their customers.

This law will be a good thing for Tesla, assuming it passes. However, it does put Tesla in a bit of a pickle in the short term. If I were in charge, I would give my customers receiving cars in December the option of pushing their delivery to January, and shipping the extra cars to Canada.

 

[Spidey616]

I think there's enough people that want to get their car sooner and not have to wait that the pending rebates/incentives may not do a ton to Tesla. It would be interesting to see if Tesla tries to incentivize people to take delivery instead of postponing. Free or discounted FSD, some free Supercharger miles, or small price drop? I don't think any of those is really likely, but who knows.

 

[pepperoni]

I think there's enough people that want to get their car sooner and not have to wait that the pending rebates/incentives may not do a ton to Tesla. It would be interesting to see if Tesla tries to incentivize people to take delivery instead of postponing. Free or discounted FSD, some free Supercharger miles, or small price drop? I don't think any of those is really likely, but who knows.

You’re right, there probably are enough people who want their car now to not impact Q4 earnings. It could turn into a logistical headache for Tesla as December customers delay, January customers get pulled in and then they too ask for a delay, and so on. I do get the sense that some people receiving their cars in the coming weeks wouldn’t change their mind. But once the law gets passed, I’ll bet a lot more will be rethinking that decision. On the other hand, maybe some folks at the end of the line would be willing to forgo their tax incentive if they were given the opportunity to jump to the front. I’ll bet that would work.

 

[leaftoy]

With the proposed 400/600/800k income limits to quality for the credit, though, there's plenty of coastal folk who won't be able to qualify. There will be plenty of people ready to take delivery.

We are potentially talking about, say, 60k deliveries. You mean to tell me we have more than that many “coastal folk” with an AGI north of 800k joint or 400k solo currently waiting for a Y delivery?