End of the ICE industry

[dm28997]

I believe this is a very important topic. Tony Seba has graphs illustrating the growth of BEVs along with the rapid decline of fossil fuel vehicles and associated industries.
Consumers are not so stupid to continue to buy a gas/diesel vehicle when BEVs are becoming ubiquitous on the roads. Legacy auto makers are advertising concept EVs but only make a dismal number due to competing with their cash generating ICE vehicles. This paradigm shift is surprising many people even the bullish that have difficulty in understanding exponential growth or S curve. This is excellent news for the fight to limit Climate Change although the politicians in power seem to focus more on jobs that are becoming useless and missing the obvious disaster by doing the same thing expecting a different result(Insanity).
The oil pipelines, coal leasing, drilling, etc. continues practically unabated growing the Keeling curve to ridiculous levels. Wildfires, storms, new viruses, coastlines flooding and so on is beyond economic calculations and cannot be measured. What is a life worth?
So anyway none of this matters as a transition is rapidly changing everything. I will add more but thought I'd post a video to see if anyone has projections on how soon legacy will either change or go bankrupt.

 

[dm28997]

So it appears utility rate payers have no voice in generation of electricity. If they build a gas or coal backup plant instead of a cost effective Solar/Wind/Battery system the public ratepayers will have higher electricity costs since they based their utility life of use on FALSE data.
In addition the PUC wants to shift costs to home owners that install solar. Recall the San Onefre nuclear power plant shutdown that ratepayers had to fund.
Climate Change is still ignored and the politicians and appointees seem to be getting paid by fossil fuel interests.
Pretty weird stuff besides being selfish and dumb.

 

[dm28997]

A pretty good summary of worldwide EV sales and growth. But still ICE SUVs are selling. Good news and bad news. Of course China and the EU are leading since the US can't seem to understand that GM doesn't sell many EVs and is falling behind exception is Tesla.

IEA (2022), Electric cars fend off supply challenges to more than double global sales, IEA, Paris Electric cars fend off supply challenges to more than double global sales – Analysis - IEA

 

[dm28997]

The struggling California Utility companies seem to resort to total BS. The so called unfair solar owners who make others pay higher utility bills is so bogus a 5 year old could see it. These are not public utilities as they are fossil fuel interests directed. Fortunately this bogus solar bill has been halted. Its time to shine light on these greedy interests.

Coalition received $1.7 million from three California utilities to push NEM 3.0, a rooftop solar ‘killer’

The Affordable Clean Energy for All coalition received payments from PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E to "stop the cost shift" and support the proposed (and since postponed) Net Energy Metering 3.0 decision.

pv-magazine-usa.com

 

[dm28997]

Wow. Kelly Blue Book reported that in Q4 car sales fell 21.3% while EV sales grew 72%. Tesla is leading the way big time as reported in this article.

Car sales slip, electric vehicle sales surge—temporary blip or game-changing trend?

Every crisis presents opportunities, ‘tis said—but when looking at facts and figures in the midst of the chaos, it can be hard to identify what represents crisis and what represents opportunity. Above: A look at a fleet of electric vehicles from industry leader Tesla (Source: EVANNEX; Photo...

evannex.com

 

[kabin]

It will be interesting to see how electric utilities plan for and manage EV growth. One would think a tipping point happens after a certain number of EVs get connected to the grid. I suspect an electric grid pain is inevitable.

Will the night time charging discount become a thing of the past? Will there be any financial advantage for solar owners trying to pay off their large investment when the day time rates are equal to or cheaper than the night time rates? Will solar owners need to double down by buying solar systems that are virtually off the grid (larger solar system able to run both house/cars)?

A news story today reports France is planning to build 5 nuclear reactors.

 

[kabin]

Wow. Kelly Blue Book reported that in Q4 car sales fell 21.3% while EV sales grew 72%. Tesla is leading the way big time as reported in this article.

Car sales slip, electric vehicle sales surge—temporary blip or game-changing trend?

Every crisis presents opportunities, ‘tis said—but when looking at facts and figures in the midst of the chaos, it can be hard to identify what represents crisis and what represents opportunity. Above: A look at a fleet of electric vehicles from industry leader Tesla (Source: EVANNEX; Photo...

evannex.com

Probably more about the law of big numbers, supply shortages, and Tesla being vertically integrated.

 

[dm28997]

Various sources suggest Tesla could buy or merge or take over with Lexus, Mercedes or?
I don't believe Tesla would want to because of the factories building factories and anti trust barriers. Yet it could help speed up the mission to replace ICE vehicles. Some automakers like Ford might benefit and survive the paradigm shift. Others are still in paradigm paralysis(Munro). We live in super exciting times.

 

[dm28997]

Both vehicles in this head on exploded in fire killing 9 people caused by a tire blowout and 75 mph speed limit. Wonder if this will hasten the move away from ICE. Don't think gas cars would have been allowed if EV's had been first.

NTSB: 13-year-old was driving truck that struck van in West Texas, killing 9

Six New Mexico college students were killed in the crash along with their golf coach.

www.khou.com

 

[Azlaneguy]

Elon needs to get the $25K Model 2 rolled out before there can be broad public acceptance of EVs (at least Teslas) in the US. Even a RWD standard M3 is way beyond the budget of most Americans. Remember ICE cars were rare luxuries until Ford came out with the Model T for the "common man". We Tesla owners are privileged and can afford to pay the early adopter premium to enjoy the thrill of the Tesla Smile. But if the Model 2 gets delayed too long, Chinese or other EV makers will get the jump on sales to this largest segment of buyers.

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon needs to get the $25K Model 2 rolled out before there can be broad public acceptance of EVs (at least Teslas) in the US. Even a RWD standard M3 is way beyond the budget of most Americans. Remember ICE cars were rare luxuries until Ford came out with the Model T for the "common man". We Tesla owners are privileged and can afford to pay the early adopter premium to enjoy the thrill of the Tesla Smile. But if the Model 2 gets delayed too long, Chinese or other EV makers will get the jump on sales to this largest segment of buyers.

The BEV market is big enough for Tesla and some Chinese rivals and legacy OEMS.

Model 2 only makes sense if the batteries are secured, meaning:
- the raw materials for the batteries;
- enough manufacturing lines for battery cells (mostly ramping the 4680 cell production, which is still in its infancy).

Tesla is going as fast as they can. If another company catches up to produce a compact BEV for $25k at scale and with a profit within 2 years, I'll be surprised.

 

[Azlaneguy]

I know that Tesla is chsrging ahead as quickly as it can. But its obvious that Model 2 is a lower priority because it will be a lot less profitable like OEMs focused on trucks and SUVs instead of sedans.

 

[jeewee3000]

I know that Tesla is chsrging ahead as quickly as it can. But its obvious that Model 2 is a lower priority because it will be a lot less profitable like OEMs focused on trucks and SUVs instead of sedans.

Less profitable, probably. But not necessarily.

Elon hinted at stamping the whole compact car in one casting, including everything but the structural battery.

This would mean a lighter but stronger car body. Resulting in even less battery cells necessary to achieve similar range. So the amount of cells (i.e. the greatest cost of the car) would be greatly reduced compared to Models S/3/X/Y.

If Tesla could figure out the one-part-casting of the body and have an efficient solution for the wiring harness, margins could be equal to other models.

Unlikely of course, but not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[dm28997]

It seems the Trucking industry emits about 28% of GHG emissions which is enormous. On top of that John Oliver does an expose on the industry. What a con game. The sooner Tesla Semi grows (with FSD even better). It not only saves emissions but deaths by truckers are very high. Here is a link:

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

BMW CEO Once Again Warns That Going All-In On EVs Is Not A Good Idea

Oliver Zipse warns that companies should not become too dependent on a select few countries—mainly China—by focusing only on EVs.

insideevs.com

 

[dm28997]

Although most posters know how ridiculous it is to use H2, this article goes into some interesting details such as:

According to a new UK "Government study, hydrogen’s Global Warming Potential (GWP) is about twice as bad as previously understood; over 100 years, a ton of hydrogen in the atmosphere will warm the Earth some 11 times more than a ton of CO2. This is because hydrogen reacts with other gases and vapours in the air, causing significant heating effects."

Hydrogen Is 11 Times Worse For The Environment Than CO2, New Report Says

The use of hydrogen as a source of energy has sparked controversy. It is promoted as a non-polluting alternate source of clean energy. Nonetheles

wonderfulengineering.com

 

[Azlaneguy]

I believe in EVs but know I'm lucky to be able to afford my Model Y. There are so many people who can't afford most EVs or don't have home charging access (e.g. urban apartment dwellers) who will hang onto their ICE vehicles until cost or availability of dino fuel or parts becomes prohibitive. So unless the $25K Model 2 or similarly priced EVs are available soon, unfortunately there's probably another 10-15 years of majority ICE vehicles we'll have to endure.

 

[scubastevo80]

I believe ICE will be extinct one day, but right now market conditions allow them to persist. Given the car shortage, everything will be sold ICE and EV. Once there’s enough EV supply at parity with ICE, then you’ll see the steady trend downward.

I also believe people will buy inferior EVs just to beat the expensive gas argument, but this will lead to certain companies going bankrupt eventually. Five years is a good time horizon to see who’s leading and who’s falling further behind.

 

[zigmeister]

It will be interesting to see how electric utilities plan for and manage EV growth. One would think a tipping point happens after a certain number of EVs get connected to the grid. I suspect an electric grid pain is inevitable.

Will the night time charging discount become a thing of the past? Will there be any financial advantage for solar owners trying to pay off their large investment when the day time rates are equal to or cheaper than the night time rates? Will solar owners need to double down by buying solar systems that are virtually off the grid (larger solar system able to run both house/cars)?

A news story today reports France is planning to build 5 nuclear reactors.

Not everyone has this problem. My power company in FL is the same rate all day. They make their money in Summer when everyone’s AC is running 90% of the time and makes up about 80% of our bill.