Energy Sector News

[petit_bateau]

A thread for posting up any energy sector news and analysis, discussion optional

Starting with this chartbook on political sensitivity of oil prices, courtesy JohnKempReuters who is one of the better sector analysts imho

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpomadjnpd/OIL%20PRICES%20AND%20CONSUMER-POLITICAL%20SENSITIVITY.pdf

 

[petit_bateau]

A remarkably good article, mostly on European gas pricing, but relevant to other fuels and various aspects of transition to renewables

Opinion: Liberalisation and decarbonisation are a recipe for volatility

Europe’s exposure to fossil fuel volatility will actually increase during the clean energy transition to net zero.

www.energymonitor.ai

 

[petit_bateau]

The Scottish offshore wind licencing round results just in are very relevant to all USA seabords, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and some France and Med littorals.

Scotland's New Floating Wind Projects – What We Know So Far

Scotland made headlines yesterday (17 January) by awarding seabed lease rights to 17 offshore wind projects totalling almost 25 GW in capacity, well beyond the expected 10 GW, and by the fact that more than half of this massive capacity is coming from floating wind farms.

www.offshorewind.biz

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Scottish offshore wind licencing round results just in are very relevant to all USA seabords, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and some France and Med littorals.

Scotland's New Floating Wind Projects – What We Know So Far

Scotland made headlines yesterday (17 January) by awarding seabed lease rights to 17 offshore wind projects totalling almost 25 GW in capacity, well beyond the expected 10 GW, and by the fact that more than half of this massive capacity is coming from floating wind farms.

www.offshorewind.biz

Cracking Floating/tethered turbine construction and maintenance would be a huge deal globally. It would open up lots of deeper shelf.

 

[petit_bateau]

Cracking Floating/tethered turbine construction and maintenance would be a huge deal globally. It would open up lots of deeper shelf.

Indeed, and it is coming. Ten years ago we were just playing with 2MW units, now we are at 12-14MW units.

I think for the 20+MW class (which we were just sketching on the drawing boards ten years ago) it will be necessary to go almost entirely to floaters. For the sub-20 MW class they are already commissioning pretty ginormous lift vessels, such as this - and even then this is limited to 70m water depth

Van Oord orders mega ship to install 20 MW offshore wind foundations and turbines | Van Oord/

Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 1 October 2021 – Van Oord has ordered a new offshore installation vessel to further strengthen its market position in offshore wind. The jack-up vessel can operate on methanol and install up to 20 MW wind turbines at sea with a very low CO2 footprint. The investment...

www.vanoord.com

At least with a floater you can do a lot of the erection near-shore and then tow-out, and similarly tow back to near-shore for any major interventions, or for ultimate decommissioning (after prob 40-yr lives @ 20MW). So the lift vessels can be in sheltered shallow water for assembly and then it is just (!) tow vessels and anchor handlers and cable connectors out at site.

To put 70m water depth in perspective that already rules out a lot of northern North Sea.

And once the industry pivots to floaters then it is possible they will get deployed in shallow water locations in preference to bottom-fixed.

 

[petit_bateau]

This is really not looking good for prospects of Russia playing nice. If the weather stays normal there's another couple of months to go until Winter temperatures rise and Spring mud makes the ground too soft for heavy tanks.

During which all eyes are on gas stocks :

Earlier Than Ever, European Gas Storage Is Half-Empty

Russia is restricting supply westward and tweeting reminders of the perilous gas situation faced by Europe.

www.bloomberg.com

And is this bluff

Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move

The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.

www.nytimes.com

Or this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483867577319366662

And is this counter bluff

Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel

The Russian amphibious assault flotilla is heading towards the English Channel and is expected to head for the Black Sea amid mounting tensions with Ukraine.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

And triangulation is all very well, but surely its not an appropriate strategy for NATO

Macron urges new EU security deal in 'frank' dialogue with Russia

French President Emmanuel Macron called on fellow members of the European Union on Wednesday to work together to draw up proposals for a new security deal with Russia in the coming weeks involving a "frank dialogue" with Moscow.

www.reuters.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Discussion re environmental and social levies, mostly UK and Germany

Taking the heat out of funding the transition

High energy prices have reignited the debate in the UK on green and social levies. As energy transition costs rise, a new approach is needed.

www.energymonitor.ai

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Discussion re environmental and social levies, mostly UK and Germany

Taking the heat out of funding the transition

High energy prices have reignited the debate in the UK on green and social levies. As energy transition costs rise, a new approach is needed.

www.energymonitor.ai

Totally overblown. The costs are now low enough not to worry about it. If energy prices are high, as now, companies with price guarantees would be paying the government, not the other way round.

 

[petit_bateau]

Totally overblown. The costs are now low enough not to worry about it. If energy prices are high, as now, companies with price guarantees would be paying the government, not the other way round.

I'm not sure about that. Renewables may now be cheaper on a levelised cost basis, but they are not cheaper on an upfron-cash cost basis. And as anyone who has a bank account knows, its the cash flow that hurts.

In any case this is a political fight being fought out in various places, here is another article on the same politics. Lose the underlying fight and I can guarantuee that renewables adoption will slow.

UK energy industry urges ministers to stick with net zero plan

Some rightwingers claim renewables have increased costs, but Energy UK blames over-reliance on gas

www.theguardian.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm not sure about that. Renewables may now be cheaper on a levelised cost basis, but they are not cheaper on an upfron-cash cost basis. And as anyone who has a bank account knows, its the cash flow that hurts.

In any case this is a political fight being fought out in various places, here is another article on the same politics. Lose the underlying fight and I can guarantuee that renewables adoption will slow.

UK energy industry urges ministers to stick with net zero plan

Some rightwingers claim renewables have increased costs, but Energy UK blames over-reliance on gas

www.theguardian.com

Wholesale energy prices running high are what's prompting this concern FUD, and that _favors_ renewables and investment in efficiency and sustainability.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sensible synopsis of offshore wind

Six Key Offshore Wind Themes to Watch in 2022 – Westwood

The offshore wind sector had another record-breaking year in 2021. Some 18.6 GW of capacity was put into operation – the industry’s highest level of annual capacity additions.

www.offshorewind.biz

 

[petit_bateau]

In case anybody missed the news the first of the European EPRs finally went critical at Olkiluoto 3 in Finland, so that was about 19-years after approval. The Chinese EPRs had a rather swifter build, time will tell whether there is any difference in the build. Next up should be the much-delayed Flamanville, then Hinckley.

Europe's first EPR reaches criticality : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News

Finland's fifth nuclear reactor, Olkiluoto 3, has reached first criticality. The EPR is the first new nuclear unit to be commissioned in Finland in over 40 years, and will eventually produce some 14% of the country's electricity.

www.world-nuclear-news.org

 

[petit_bateau]

Energy price rises complicating things for EDF in France ...

EDF considers next move after French government's energy sale plan : Corporate - World Nuclear News

Unions at the French energy giant EDF are calling for strike action over government measures designed to control fuel bill rises, which the company estimates could cost it as much as EUR8.4 billion (USD9.5 billion).

www.world-nuclear-news.org

 

[petit_bateau]

and the California anti-solar proposition is off the table for now

A big decision on rooftop solar in California is off the table, for now

California utility regulators have quietly tabled a controversial plan that would drastically reduce the benefits provided to homeowners with rooftop solar panels.

www.kpbs.org

 

[petit_bateau]

UK tries to hold on to automotive manufacturing industry/etc in a post-Brexit landscape, courtesy of taxpayers with bribes for batteries

Britishvolt gets £100m boost to build UK’s first large-scale ‘gigafactory’

The deal to build an electric car battery plant near Blyth will bring up to 3,000 jobs to the area by 2028

www.theguardian.com

UK mfg

UK: yearly car production 2003-2022 | Statista

The United Kingdom produced roughly 775,000 passenger cars in 2022.

www.statista.com

UK exports

UK: cars exported 2022 | Statista

A decline in production in the previous decade led to a decrease in export sales, but from 2009 until 2018, there was strong growth in the export market, which reached its peak in 2016 when some 1.35 million vehicles were exported from the UK.

www.statista.com

(IMHO : This is going to be very difficult for the UK if the minimum economically-viable size for an auto-plant trends upwards. UK sales are about 1.6m, but a lot of UK-sales are imports. However about 80% of UK auto mfg is exported, and total mfg is also about 1.6m so there has been an OK balance-of-payments outcome for the last few decades. But UK mfg and exports are both falling steeply, no surprises given the Brexit carcrash. Most of the UK car plants are (imho) now structurally uncompetitive even before the BEVs start acting like a velociraptor in a bunny farm. Nisan Sunderland at ~500k/yr is pretty much the only plant that might be at-scale. If Tesla Berlin gets to the 4m/yr that I think is the 10-year target then any factory less than 1m/yr is going to be so uncompetitive it isn't funny. There's no way a post-Brexit UK can retain a competitive auto industry in such a scenario).

 

[petit_bateau]

Wholesale energy prices running high are what's prompting this concern FUD, and that _favors_ renewables and investment in efficiency and sustainability.

The renewables industry is out there pushing that argument

Paybacks from UK renewables could cut £27 from bills by end of winter

£140 might have been knocked off typical bill if rollout of projects had happened sooner, says industry

www.theguardian.com

 

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hydrogen true colour revealed as brown ....

World's first hydrogen tanker to ship test cargo to Japan from Australia

A Japanese-Australian venture producing hydrogen from brown coal is set to start loading its maiden cargo on the world's first liquid hydrogen carrier on Friday, in a test delayed by nearly a year because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.reuters.com

 

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anyone might think the Russians had a date in their calendar

俄国防部：俄海军将在重要海域举行一系列军演-新华网

俄国防部：俄海军将在重要海域举行一系列军演 ---俄罗斯国防部20日发布声明表示，俄海军舰队今年1月到2月间将举行一系列军事演习，以应对来自海洋方向的军事威胁。

www.news.cn

 

[petit_bateau]

An old study, resurfaced

https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020_12_Briefing_feasibility_study_renewables_decarbonisation.pdf

contains this

Electrofuels? Yes, we can … if we’re efficient Decarbonising the EU’s transport sector with renewable electricity and electrofuels December 2020 Executive Summary The scale of decarbonising transport using renewable electricity is challenging, but the EU is well positioned to meet that challenge : the renewables potential in the EU far outstrips future demand. The EU could meet the transport sector’s demand for the direct use of renewable electricity, the electrofuels produced from renewable sources in sectors like shipping and aviation where direct use of electricity is not feasible as well as meet the electricity and hydrogen demand in other sectors like power and industry. In the next decade, there is a window of opportunity for European industry to become leaders in developing and driving down the costs of the technologies involved in producing renewablesbased hydrogen and other electrofuels. Currently, the major costs involved in transporting hydrogen over longer distances via ships (by liquefaction or conversion into ammonia) creates an opportunity for production in the EU or importing it via pipeline from its immediate neighbourhood. But for the EU to live up to this challenge, there is no scope to use renewable electricity inefficiently. Enabling the use of e.g. synthetic hydrocarbons in road transport, where technical alternatives such as the direct use of electricity exist, comes with a huge energy penalty and risks derailing the entire decarbonisation effort.

 

[petit_bateau]

Everyone wants to mass produce offshore floating wind turbine 'foundations'

Japanese Consortium Launches Project to Mass-Produce Floating Wind Foundations

“K” Line Wind Service, Japan Marine United Corporation, Nihon Shipyard, and Toa Corporation have established a consortium to work on a project focused on mass production of floating wind foundations and cost reduction of floating wind installation.

www.offshorewind.biz

And every days brings another announcement of another GW of offshore wind

New 1 GW Project in China to Use MingYang 11 MW Offshore Wind Turbines

Guangdong Electric Power Development has awarded a contract to MingYang Smart Energy, under which the wind turbine manufacturer will supply its MySE 11-230 typhoon-proof hybrid-drive turbines for a 1 GW offshore wind project.

www.offshorewind.biz