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Not really a surprise,

Fatih Birol said reductions in supplies in recent weeks which the Kremlin has attributed to maintenance work could, in fact, be the beginning of wider cuts designed to prevent the filling of storage facilities in preparation for winter, as Russia seeks to gain leverage over the region. “Europe should be ready in case Russian gas is completely cut off,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “The nearer we are coming to winter, the more we understand Russia’s intentions.


 
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Not really a surprise,

Fatih Birol said reductions in supplies in recent weeks which the Kremlin has attributed to maintenance work could, in fact, be the beginning of wider cuts designed to prevent the filling of storage facilities in preparation for winter, as Russia seeks to gain leverage over the region. “Europe should be ready in case Russian gas is completely cut off,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “The nearer we are coming to winter, the more we understand Russia’s intentions.



$5 says that even knowing this . . . Europe won't prepare for winter.
 
$5 says that even knowing this . . . Europe won't prepare for winter.
Europe is preparing, and indeed has been since 2004 and more so since 2014, and lots more in the last year. What is unclear is whether the preparations will be sufficient and what level of disruption will occur. None of rejigging entire energy systems and continent (and global) scale economies is easy. We are all in this together.
 
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Europe is preparing, and indeed has been since 2004 and more so since 2014, and lots more in the last year. What is unclear is whether the preparations will be sufficient and what level of disruption will occur. None of rejigging entire energy systems and continent (and global) scale economies is easy. We are all in this together.

I would argue that only parts of Europe have been preparing. Germany being the biggest counter-example. Their actions show they are clearly terrified of Russia turning off oil and gas supply, and that their economy would take a major hit if that happened. They do not appear to be able to get off Russian gas, not without probably pushing them into a recession due to the decreased industrial output.
 
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I would argue that only parts of Europe have been preparing. Germany being the biggest counter-example. Their actions show they are clearly terrified of Russia turning off oil and gas supply, and that their economy would take a major hit if that happened. They do not appear to be able to get off Russian gas, not without probably pushing them into a recession due to the decreased industrial output.
The gas wouldn't be able to flow west-to-east from Germany into Poland if the Germans hadn't been doing their bit preparing. The German % of renewables wouldn't be the highest of all the major European economies if the Germans hadn't been doing their bit preparing. Etc.

Yes, there have been problems in Germany with respect to preparations, but they do not deserve all the brickbats they are getting. Some of them, but not all.
 
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Interesting article about an obscure treaty which compensates the fossil fuel industry.
Five people, aged between 17 and 31, who have experienced devastating floods, forest fires and hurricanes are bringing a case to the European court of human rights, where they will argue that their governments’ membership of the little-known energy charter treaty (ECT) is a dangerous obstacle to action on the climate crisis. It is the first time that the Strasbourg court will be asked to consider the treaty, a secretive investor court system that enables fossil fuel companies to sue governments for lost profits.

The case comes as the ECT falls under growing scrutiny. The treaty – which has about 55 member countries, including EU states, the UK and Japan – has been described as a real threat to the Paris agreement; it could allow companies to sue governments for an estimated €1.3tn until 2050 in compensation for early closure of coal, oil and gas plants. Activists and whistleblowers say these vast sums would stymie the green transition, while time is running out to keep within the 1.5C global heating limit.
 
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Interesting article about an obscure treaty which compensates the fossil fuel industry.
Five people, aged between 17 and 31, who have experienced devastating floods, forest fires and hurricanes are bringing a case to the European court of human rights, where they will argue that their governments’ membership of the little-known energy charter treaty (ECT) is a dangerous obstacle to action on the climate crisis. It is the first time that the Strasbourg court will be asked to consider the treaty, a secretive investor court system that enables fossil fuel companies to sue governments for lost profits.

The case comes as the ECT falls under growing scrutiny. The treaty – which has about 55 member countries, including EU states, the UK and Japan – has been described as a real threat to the Paris agreement; it could allow companies to sue governments for an estimated €1.3tn until 2050 in compensation for early closure of coal, oil and gas plants. Activists and whistleblowers say these vast sums would stymie the green transition, while time is running out to keep within the 1.5C global heating limit.
Yes, the ECT is problematic. However well intentioned it was at the beginning it is now being weaponised.
 
I don't understand how this could be well intentioned.
If you go back to when the ECT was put together it was an attempt to encourage the ex Warsaw Pact / Comecon / USSR countries along the path of democracy and market economies, rather than spiralling into a very dangerous mess (much much worse than it has). The obvious way to do this was to integrate the economies of W and E so that economic benefits would flow in both directions (aka wandel durch handel), and generally the east would develop in a pacifistic democratic manner. But this required massive western financial investment into the east to enable the oil & gas fields to reach their potential for all parties. And that in turn required legal certainty so that the investments, once made, were relatively safe from political risk. Hence the ECT which if you look extends further east than just Russia and includes all the Stans. In principle the ECT is agnostic with respect to energy source, and indeed back when it was drafted it was unclear how fast renewables would come to fruition. If you recall back then big hydro and big nuclear were candidates for massive increases, and we were already trying to understand how fast we could scale what were then called the "new renewables" to distinguish them from the "old renewables" (of hydro, biomass). (I know this stuff because I worked on some of this in one of the big oil companies back in this time, in fact I got told off for working on the renewables too much).

To a great extent it has worked. There has been widespread peace in Europe and the ex WarPac states with only limited conflicts for about 30-years since the wall came down. But it has failed in two significant ways, one of which was foreseen as a risk, the other less so. The failures are:

1. The extent to which core-Russia has flipped on to the non-democratic pathway. This in many ways is the fault of the right wing of US politics, as they stymied the more inclusive approach that was the original partnership development model envisaged by (amongst others) George W Bush. The result was a perfect disaster of mafia-style raping & looting of Russia aided, abetted, and in many ways led by the vampire squid elements of the US banking sector using the tenets of unfettered capitalism as camouflage. That ultimately begat Putin et al as a response. The EU was able to salvage most of the European Comecon countries, and the combination of EU carrot and NATO stick has kept the Balkans just about on a positive pathway with various ups and downs and ups. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are still very much in play as we can see. However Russia itself and the Stans were basically lost by the West's own ineptitude. That in turn means the various Russian state proxies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc) can use provisions in the ECT in any way they see fit, however unreasonable - the specifics are complex because Russia never ratified but the dispute resolution mechanisms are accessible to Russia.

2. The contradiction between long term investments in fossils and cumulative damage mechanisms in climate change, and the extent to which the global political system would not act fast enough to resolve this before those contradictions got out of hand. That is what this particular court case is about as other attempts to update/reform the ECT have not come to fruition. These failings are not just ECT-specific, indeed they are endemic in pretty much all human economic activity in the last 30-years*, so it would be unfair to single out the ECT as being the only example of these failings. However this particular legal case is also a good example of the lawfare that I expect to see much more of over the next few decades. In fact I believe I linked to a higher level exemplar only yesterday **

Anyway the underlying point is that the ECT was a well-intentioned effort that has in many ways been sucessful, but not entirely so.

Energy Charter Treaty - Wikipedia

* I say 30-years because that is when I began working in the energy sector and we could both see (more accurately, glimpse) the climate change (and peak anything) issues, and see/glimpse solutions, and the global political system for the first time ever had a possibility of addressing them. So the triad of puzzle pieces was tantalisingly beginning to come into focus in a solvable way. All time before that basically was either unknowable and/or unsolvable imho.

** Finance, geopolitics cast shadow over climate talks
 
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Germany hits gas alarm
and

.. not just Germany

thoughtful wider peace piece

plausible deniability ?

disconnect

US charger network platitudes

15GW of floaters

lots more offshore

... some contradiction with this : TINA or not ?

flow batteries press marketing pedal, i have my doubts

decimal point in the right place

right direction in Italy

... and some product p0rn
 
If you go back to when the ECT was put together it was an attempt to encourage the ex Warsaw Pact / Comecon / USSR countries along the path of democracy and market economies, rather than spiralling into a very dangerous mess (much much worse than it has). The obvious way to do this was to integrate the economies of W and E so that economic benefits would flow in both directions (aka wandel durch handel), and generally the east would develop in a pacifistic democratic manner. But this required massive western financial investment into the east to enable the oil & gas fields to reach their potential for all parties. And that in turn required legal certainty so that the investments, once made, were relatively safe from political risk. Hence the ECT which if you look extends further east than just Russia and includes all the Stans. In principle the ECT is agnostic with respect to energy source, and indeed back when it was drafted it was unclear how fast renewables would come to fruition. If you recall back then big hydro and big nuclear were candidates for massive increases, and we were already trying to understand how fast we could scale what were then called the "new renewables" to distinguish them from the "old renewables" (of hydro, biomass). (I know this stuff because I worked on some of this in one of the big oil companies back in this time, in fact I got told off for working on the renewables too much).

To a great extent it has worked. There has been widespread peace in Europe and the ex WarPac states with only limited conflicts for about 30-years since the wall came down. But it has failed in two significant ways, one of which was foreseen as a risk, the other less so. The failures are:

1. The extent to which core-Russia has flipped on to the non-democratic pathway. This in many ways is the fault of the right wing of US politics, as they stymied the more inclusive approach that was the original partnership development model envisaged by (amongst others) George W Bush. The result was a perfect disaster of mafia-style raping & looting of Russia aided, abetted, and in many ways led by the vampire squid elements of the US banking sector using the tenets of unfettered capitalism as camouflage. That ultimately begat Putin et al as a response. The EU was able to salvage most of the European Comecon countries, and the combination of EU carrot and NATO stick has kept the Balkans just about on a positive pathway with various ups and downs and ups. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are still very much in play as we can see. However Russia itself and the Stans were basically lost by the West's own ineptitude. That in turn means the various Russian state proxies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc) can use provisions in the ECT in any way they see fit, however unreasonable - the specifics are complex because Russia never ratified but the dispute resolution mechanisms are accessible to Russia.

2. The contradiction between long term investments in fossils and cumulative damage mechanisms in climate change, and the extent to which the global political system would not act fast enough to resolve this before those contradictions got out of hand. That is what this particular court case is about as other attempts to update/reform the ECT have not come to fruition. These failings are not just ECT-specific, indeed they are endemic in pretty much all human economic activity in the last 30-years*, so it would be unfair to single out the ECT as being the only example of these failings. However this particular legal case is also a good example of the lawfare that I expect to see much more of over the next few decades. In fact I believe I linked to a higher level exemplar only yesterday **

Anyway the underlying point is that the ECT was a well-intentioned effort that has in many ways been sucessful, but not entirely so.

Energy Charter Treaty - Wikipedia

* I say 30-years because that is when I began working in the energy sector and we could both see (more accurately, glimpse) the climate change (and peak anything) issues, and see/glimpse solutions, and the global political system for the first time ever had a possibility of addressing them. So the triad of puzzle pieces was tantalisingly beginning to come into focus in a solvable way. All time before that basically was either unknowable and/or unsolvable imho.

** Finance, geopolitics cast shadow over climate talks
Thank you. Great explanation.
 
Thank you. Great explanation.
No worries.
==========
Some stuff I missed earlier today:

EU-Russia ban commentary, worth the read

Positive news re acceleration

More nukes in Arabia

Green nukes

SMR wants to make stuff

Russian SMRs

Finnish nuke not finally finished yet

Fukushima water

next UK nuke progresses
 
WTI $105.6
Brent $107.5

EU grants Ukraine & Moldova candidate status

HIMARs documented in action in Ukraine

of Baltic grids

US pathways for 2030

liquid metal battery prize etc, MIT

direct air capture (DAC) symposium at MIT

(other universities are available)

big turbines

implications of Freeport LNG fire
 
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If you go back to when the ECT was put together it was an attempt to encourage the ex Warsaw Pact / Comecon / USSR countries along the path of democracy and market economies, rather than spiralling into a very dangerous mess (much much worse than it has). The obvious way to do this was to integrate the economies of W and E so that economic benefits would flow in both directions (aka wandel durch handel), and generally the east would develop in a pacifistic democratic manner. But this required massive western financial investment into the east to enable the oil & gas fields to reach their potential for all parties. And that in turn required legal certainty so that the investments, once made, were relatively safe from political risk. Hence the ECT which if you look extends further east than just Russia and includes all the Stans. In principle the ECT is agnostic with respect to energy source, and indeed back when it was drafted it was unclear how fast renewables would come to fruition. If you recall back then big hydro and big nuclear were candidates for massive increases, and we were already trying to understand how fast we could scale what were then called the "new renewables" to distinguish them from the "old renewables" (of hydro, biomass). (I know this stuff because I worked on some of this in one of the big oil companies back in this time, in fact I got told off for working on the renewables too much).

To a great extent it has worked. There has been widespread peace in Europe and the ex WarPac states with only limited conflicts for about 30-years since the wall came down. But it has failed in two significant ways, one of which was foreseen as a risk, the other less so. The failures are:

1. The extent to which core-Russia has flipped on to the non-democratic pathway. This in many ways is the fault of the right wing of US politics, as they stymied the more inclusive approach that was the original partnership development model envisaged by (amongst others) George W Bush. The result was a perfect disaster of mafia-style raping & looting of Russia aided, abetted, and in many ways led by the vampire squid elements of the US banking sector using the tenets of unfettered capitalism as camouflage. That ultimately begat Putin et al as a response. The EU was able to salvage most of the European Comecon countries, and the combination of EU carrot and NATO stick has kept the Balkans just about on a positive pathway with various ups and downs and ups. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are still very much in play as we can see. However Russia itself and the Stans were basically lost by the West's own ineptitude. That in turn means the various Russian state proxies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc) can use provisions in the ECT in any way they see fit, however unreasonable - the specifics are complex because Russia never ratified but the dispute resolution mechanisms are accessible to Russia.

2. The contradiction between long term investments in fossils and cumulative damage mechanisms in climate change, and the extent to which the global political system would not act fast enough to resolve this before those contradictions got out of hand. That is what this particular court case is about as other attempts to update/reform the ECT have not come to fruition. These failings are not just ECT-specific, indeed they are endemic in pretty much all human economic activity in the last 30-years*, so it would be unfair to single out the ECT as being the only example of these failings. However this particular legal case is also a good example of the lawfare that I expect to see much more of over the next few decades. In fact I believe I linked to a higher level exemplar only yesterday **

Anyway the underlying point is that the ECT was a well-intentioned effort that has in many ways been sucessful, but not entirely so.

Energy Charter Treaty - Wikipedia

* I say 30-years because that is when I began working in the energy sector and we could both see (more accurately, glimpse) the climate change (and peak anything) issues, and see/glimpse solutions, and the global political system for the first time ever had a possibility of addressing them. So the triad of puzzle pieces was tantalisingly beginning to come into focus in a solvable way. All time before that basically was either unknowable and/or unsolvable imho.

** Finance, geopolitics cast shadow over climate talks
and on that note,

"After more than four years of talks, 52 countries and the EU on Friday struck a deal to “modernise” the energy charter treaty, a 1994 agreement that allows investors to sue governments for changes in energy policy that harm their profits."

 
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Russia in default, first time since 1918

Hydrogen vaporware

Iran 4GW

polysilicon highs

ginagorous cable support, Australia - Singapore

European online tool for energy independence (worth understanding)

The tool itself is here (worth playing with)

Denmark rejects wind overlaps

Big anti-typhoon blades - a big deal

ERCOT storage hot property

Backroom stuff
 
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WTI $107.6
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G7 talks
and

Russia "maintains"

Bulgaria (and EU) acts

China bakes

OPEC tapped out

... alternatives

refraccing is a thing

conservation is also a thing

Sweden 5.5GW

dash slowly in Germany

hobble slower in France

agrivoltaic fads, evade planning is the real thing

smart metering very slowly

good thinking on hydrogen, unusually

more money for hydrogen, normally

India always lots of opportunities, going begging

big modules keep coming
 
WTI $113.8
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NATO will expand, Finland and Sweden joining, Turkey drops objection, more stuff on east flank, full strategy paper released

Worth re-reading old NATO releases, this from 2008 was re-affirmed today, "NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. "

Macron manoeuvres

G7 price capping

Copper dropping, recession fears

Tesla Berlin adds second shift (and a third shift is also in prospect from other sources)

California burning

California pricing

Namibian gas (wow, this brings back memories)

No idea if the seminar is still available online, but I can endorse the message in the flyer
"Unfortunately, the [emerging battery energy storage system] BESS market also shares an unfortunate similarity with early solar energy deployment: a low level of manufacturing maturity leading to inconsistent quality. With many emerging players operating in the same space and vying for their market share, products are launched on the market and ramped up aggressively, even though some may still be at the stage of prototypes."

real fuel cell vehicles exist

Chinese nuclear keeps coming

Reasons to be a nuclear neighbour

Slowbuild

Terminal decline
 
WTI $109.7
Brent $112.6

Gazprom divvi suspended, shares down

Uniper shares down

Indian triangulation
 
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Baltic grids ready

Sakhalin 2 seized by Russia

JohnKempReuters chartbook global economy decellerating

... more evidence of turndown

US supreme court hobbles US EPA

Warn polluters, not polluted

....like this, not

Very big grids

Tesla (battery operator) fined

Tesla (itself) lawsuit

What a surprise, carbon credits sham scam

... so put a scheme in place ..... (and pay)

Australian gas

4GW floaters Korea

Driving change

Advertorial - solar + storage, may interest some (I'm actually on the verge of ordering Huawei due to unavailability of Tesla Powerwall)
 
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