TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Enhanced Autopilot 2 may never happen before Full Self Driving is ready!

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Bladerskb, Dec 24, 2016.

Tags:
  1. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    Looking closer at the promised features and the available camera hardware assigned to those features i discovered that based on the current configuration reaching EAP complete is essentially IMPOSSIBLE.

    Here me out, lets take a took.


    1) Automatic Lane Changes

    • People forget that the current AP1 is simply a very good lane keeping and adaptive cruise control. What Elon is promising with automatic lane change is a fundamental difference. Your car actually has to be aware of the lane that its in and it has to know that changing lane would not jeopardize your destination. Its no longer a glorified lane keeping, it actually has to know where your going and how to get there. Simply seeing a free lane and taking it won't be wise because GPS isn't accurate enough to keep you within a lane or give you road changes update or what lane to stay on or exit with.
    • You would need HD mapping (aka fleet learning), meaning a Tesla must have traversed the freeway you are on in order for EAP2 to be fully functional for that trip.
    • Sure you can make lane changes using only Tesla Vision but that will lead to problems we already see from AP1. Decisions made with limited information lead to close calls, missed exit, wrong routes and accidents.

    2) Exit Freeway and transition control back to you

    I believe this is the most debated topic in the autonomous field. How and when to transition control back to the driver and how long does it take for the driver to regain control. Tesla says their car will exit the freeway and then afterwards hand control back to you. There are two problems with that.

    • EAP2 cameras configuration consists only of the redundant forward looking camera and the two rear looking cameras.
    • The camera used for tracking traffic signs/lights and pedestrian is the Wide forward camera which is not included in EAP2.

    Why is this a problem?

    • Well if you are a driver you know that most freeway exits end abruptly and quickly with a traffic light/sign intersection, sometimes a roundabout up ahead.
    • Exit ramp most of the times are short (50 feet etc) and with sharp curves and out of no where intersection. It would be impossible for Tesla to implement a safe hand-off as they have outlined without using the wide forward camera to stop at the intersections.


    3) Smart Summon - Navigate Parking Space to find you

    This is another feature that will require all 8 cameras in order to work as promised. In a parking lot there are cars and obstacle at every angle. While during highway driving you are only looking straight. In many parking spaces you will need your side looking cameras and main forward cameras for your car to safely navigate. Some driveways also sit adjacent of a busy road or street. Ultrasonic isn't enough, as has already been proven by the current summon system.


    TLDR

    Tesla promised Enhanced Autopilot 2 may never come to fruition till FSD is in its advanced stage, because most of the features of EAP2 ties directly to FSD. For example you can't change lanes without HD mapping of the freeway (done by fellow teslas) or take exits without main forward looking cameras to stop at intersections or navigate parking lots to find you without the aid of your side looking cameras. Sure you can perform all these maneuvers unsafely just as AP1 perform alot of maneuver unsafely today. You will end up with the same unsafe system you had before in AP1. Why? adding more features without supplemental data for that feature will be extremely unsafe and will put us owners back in the same scenario of a buggy software because of the lack of necessary information. Leading the car to make erroneous decisions leading to accidents and then the driver being blame because he isn't supper attentive.

    Remember the more features you have that are not implemented safely, the more attentive you have to be. Reminds me when summon was released without the dead man switch and the deficiencies in the sonar sensors made it run into obstacles.

    EAP2 is essentially L4 Highway that alot of companies have talked about and one being volvo, will be implementing for specific routes in 2017. But the car will be fully responsible on the highway with you watching a movie, reading newspaper or playing a game until you are a mile from your exit. That sounds alot better and safer.
     
    • Disagree x 6
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 1
  2. drklain

    drklain Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    345
    Location:
    Scottsdale, AZ/Fairfax, VA
    Just got to say "Huh?"

    Do you even own a Tesla or have any experience with them? Have you looked at the equipment provided for AP2? You say there are only 2 forward looking cameras on the system when all AP2.0 cars have 3 forward looking (or 5 depending on if you want to count the two side ones as well) and 8 total cameras.

    Your post seems to be based on a lack of understanding as to what equipment is being deployed for EAP and how it works. It seems as if you would be much more satisfied with the Volvo system you reference, which of course can't be purchased now and is likely not going to be available for several years....perhaps that's what you should wait for?
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    I have a pre-order for M3.

    Yes I'm fimiliar with the equipment provided for AP2 and i listed them out. Outside of the 8 cameras which i mentioned in my post (if you took the time to read it), there are 1 radar, 12 improved ultrasonics, improved gps and nvidia drive px 2.

    EAP2 which my post was focused on only have access to 4 of those cameras.

    "Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver."

    www.tesla.com/autopilot

    Elon Musk said in the press conference that the 4 cameras being used for enhanced autopilot were the two rear facing cameras and the two redundant forward facing cameras.



    I'm not satisfied with volvo, i was referencng its mode of operation.
     
  4. eloder

    eloder Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2015
    Messages:
    1,079
    Location:
    Ohio, USA
    So you're saying Teslas are less advanced than Garmin GPS circa 2006?

    Navigation software has been around for a very long time that can tell you which lane to get into. Tesla already solved the hard part, having the vehicle change lanes safely on its own (even with needing an input telling it to begin a lane change).
     
  5. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    How do i get into a lane when i don't know where i am?
    Sure my phone tells be to keep left or keep right or stay at the right most lane.
    But as a human i can understand where i am and what lane i am inorder to comprehend the navigation instructions.

    But for a car its Not true as have been heavily documented because GPS is heavily in-accurate.
    The best gps will get you accuracy of acouple meters, while you need CM accuracy.

    The current AP1 doesn't know where it is. All it sees are lanes and identify them.
    So lets say you want to enter the left lane. With its sole camera it can detect that there is a lane to the left and confirms with its ultrasonic that the lane is empty. It then enters the lane and aligns the car to the center of its lane.

    The human is 100% in control and tells it what lane to take. So if you told it to take a left lane and that lane leads to a exit then that's what it will do.

    For EAP2 its completely different. The car has to know that the empty lane its about to take doesn't lead to an exit or another freeway, or away from where the destination is.

    GPS is inaccurate to determine what lane the car is or how many lanes there are as road changes alot. this is why you need HD mapping



    11:20
     
    • Like x 1
  6. Nietschy

    Nietschy Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2016
    Messages:
    75
    Location:
    Austria
    I seem that you are just replicating what they tell in the video but are missing the point that they are already printing all the lanes of the street, with their information whether it is an exit lane or not, which in fact is a matter of meters not centimeters.

    I do not get what you really want to tell us here?
    You want to tell us that AP2.0 will not be better as AP1.0, ever?

    Yes AP 2.0 will no be better than AP1.0 at day one, but it will progress and will overtake it, like all new tech.
    AP2.0 is lacking a lot of AP2.0 but has so much more potential to do more than AP1.0.
    I relly do not see how AP2.0 will not overtake AP1.0 in a matter of months from now. It will get the features of AP1.0 in a few weeks or months and will progress, where AP1.0 will basically stay where it right now.
     
  7. eloder

    eloder Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2015
    Messages:
    1,079
    Location:
    Ohio, USA
    Again, this problem was solved by decades-old GPS programs. They know where you are and which lane you are in, and which lane you need to be in, even if you do not.
     
  8. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    #8 Bladerskb, Dec 24, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2016
    Omg did you not watch the video? It's literally spelt out for you...How can you possibly miss it?

    It literally says at 11:20 that GPS is inaccurate and shows you on the screen where the GPS is actually playing it's markers at the wrong lane and how the car is actually completely in a different lane. It also shows u there HD map of the lanes which is an accuracy of 10-20 cm. Every HD map from google, Tom tom, nvidia next all have HD map that are 10-20cm.

    This is simple facts. My goodness just google it. GPS accuracy is a couple meters.

    I'm simply presenting facts that you can find yourself by googling.

    Lastly I'm not saying that EAP won't be better than AP1. But that those listed features won't be here any time soon and will show up only when FSD is in its advanced stages
     
    • Like x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  9. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    No it wasn't.
    The video tells you right there. My goodness. Just google. Google is your friend. Self driving car need cm level accuracy. GPS today have accuracy of acouple meters. How is this so difficult to understand?
     
    • Like x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  10. Dcr26

    Dcr26 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2016
    Messages:
    97
    Location:
    SoCal
    Volvo troll
     
  11. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan
    I dont even like Volvo and was gonna delete the video after posting it and seeing its embedded but couldn't find a way to edit the post. I don't understand why such animosity agianst simple facts? I just don't get it....
     
  12. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    12,985
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    Thanks for your post. I am sure that you, neither a Tesla employee nor an automotive autonomous driving systems engineer, know much more than Elon and his engineering team do and it is now clear to me that Tesla has lied to us about EAP.
     
    • Funny x 3
  13. cirrus282cd

    cirrus282cd Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2016
    Messages:
    6
    Location:
    lake oswego oregon
    I am new to Tesla owner ship and trying to catch up.. I bought a S in Sept and am getting a X for my wife next week.

    however I own a very nice airplane.. and our GPS system in that is only good to 10 feet o so.. that's called WAAS wide area augmentation system. now its nice when you break out of the cloud and the run way is right there.. but from what I know only the military as dead accurate GPS for navigatation.. but then again I could be behind the times.
    Also how do I know if my S is able to accept the up date for version 2 full autonomous drive.. ?
     
  14. bswn1

    bswn1 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2016
    Messages:
    311
    Location:
    CA
    Few points...

    - I don't think they need HD maps to determine what lane you're in based on what I've seen about the new system... it can determine your lane without any lane markings whatsoever, so determining the correct lane on a clearly marked highway should be a much easier task

    - It's common knowledge that Tesla has been developing HD maps for years already. Combined with the above, I don't think that they'll need years more data to be able to complete functionality

    - I don't think having access to all 8 cameras with FSD would change any of the points you've brought up, so regarding this functionality being unavailable before FSD rolls out I think doesn't really make sense

    - Off-ramp transition to driver could literally be as simple as a dash countdown from the time the car is in the correct lane to the time it takes an exit (10 seconds?) in which the car transitions control back to the driver instantly once the exit has been taken. Problem solved, no additional cameras or sensors needed and promise fulfilled. Pretty simple.​

    I like the way you're thinking, but I'm pretty sure the flagship functionality will definitely be rolled out in a reasonable time frame. It would be silly for them to promise the three or four main features on the Tesla website then decide it was too hard to do after people bought cars. I understand Elon made promises about AP1 he didn't fulfill, but those were fringe use cases not flagship functionality promises.
     
    • Informative x 1
  15. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    Michigan

    No I'm analyzing the possibility and implementation of EAP based on the available sensors to it.

    Explain to me how you will safely exit the freeway and transit control safely to the driver without having to stop at the intersection?

    Because without the main forward camera that's exactly what Tesla will be regulated to. Doesn't this makes ap2 as dangerous as AP1?
     
  16. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    3,453
    Location:
    Redmond, WA
    Selective Availability (the difference between military & civilian GPS) was phased out in 2000. The only difference now with the military GPS signal is that it's a better quality (has a redundant frequency) and is more immune against hacking.

    GPS is accurate to about 2 to 4 meters (depending on where you are), according to the latest FAA study in July:
    http://www.nstb.tc.faa.gov/reports/PAN94_0716.pdf

    A lane on the road is 2.5 to 3.25 meters. So GPS alone can't place you in an exact lane all the time. To do that, the accuracy would have to be better than a 1/3rd of a car width.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  17. bswn1

    bswn1 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2016
    Messages:
    311
    Location:
    CA
    I explain it above.
     
  18. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    Messages:
    689
    Location:
    Virginia
    TMC = largest group of brand protecting fan boys on the Internet. Hands down....
     
  19. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    Messages:
    689
    Location:
    Virginia
    No. Even with WAAS, no. Not granular enough.
     
  20. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2013
    Messages:
    5,100
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC
    Your post is speculation based on your own analysis. It is not fact based.

    Right, because if we don't agree with the OP's absurd assumption that Enhanced AP 2.0 won't be out until FSD is out then we are protecting the brand. :rolleyes:

    I find far more criticism on this forum than on other forums I post on.
     

Share This Page