canasion35
Active Member
Probably creating a position to either pass upgrades cost onto consumers or generators. Either way it’s to form a path to upgrade their resiliency and reliability.
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Ercot issues Conservation Warning
- Thread starter CrazyRabbit
- Start date
Fear mongering by the headline writer.
_If_ they have similar storms, then up to 16.8% chance of rolling blackouts around 8am. Not 16.8% chance of 3 days without power.
And I'm sure that's without any other mitigation attempts.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Headline and the paragraph I posted seem accurate.
The council has predicted a 14.4 percent chance that it could order controlled outages if Texas experiences a storm similar in nature to the late 2022 cold snap that left more than a million homes across the U.S. without power from December 22 to 25. Controlled outages would be used if temperatures in Texas drop to sub freezing levels and last for an extended period. In January, the chances of controlled outages will grow to about 16.8 percent, ERCOT predicted. The grid operator said the relatively high chances for blackouts are still only likely in extreme winter storms, with the actual likelihood of power outages being much lower.
I think they need to find a way to use the smart meters (at least the ones with shutoffs built in) to do the rotating outages.
Give each household an allocation per hour. Cuts as soon as it's exceeded and restarts the next hour.
Gives people the option to go big or nurse it through.
Of course I doubt the meters are tested for that sort of cycling.
Give each household an allocation per hour. Cuts as soon as it's exceeded and restarts the next hour.
Gives people the option to go big or nurse it through.
Of course I doubt the meters are tested for that sort of cycling.
It's fearmongering because the wording deliberately implies greater probability and frequency.
"Texas faces risk of rolling blackouts this winter". There, that's better.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
No shining example: Texas-style electric deregulation is bad for consumers
Texas power market designers argue that short-term price spikes will encourage long-run investment, but why would power plant owners build more power plants just to make sure prices stay low?
Today is different. The government-designed and managed markets have created a shortfall in power generation during periods of peak demand in winter and summer. Power plant owners — including wind and solar farms — benefit from skyrocketing prices. The market designers still argue that such short-term price spikes will encourage long-run investment, but they have never played poker. Why would power plant owners build more power plants just to make sure prices stay low?
The Wall Street Journal reported Texans overpaid $28 billion for electricity prior to 2021 due to the ERCOT market design. Add in the costs of the February 2021 winter storm: 246 dead, $2.1 billion in government mandated bailouts, and economic losses estimated by the State of Texas to have been more than $100 billion. And now add in $12 billion.
MontyFloyd
Member
For profit speculative market causing price increases, with guaranteed government bailout in case of collapse.No shining example: Texas-style electric deregulation is bad for consumers
Texas power market designers argue that short-term price spikes will encourage long-run investment, but why would power plant owners build more power plants just to make sure prices stay low?www.utilitydive.com
Today is different. The government-designed and managed markets have created a shortfall in power generation during periods of peak demand in winter and summer. Power plant owners — including wind and solar farms — benefit from skyrocketing prices. The market designers still argue that such short-term price spikes will encourage long-run investment, but they have never played poker. Why would power plant owners build more power plants just to make sure prices stay low?
The Wall Street Journal reported Texans overpaid $28 billion for electricity prior to 2021 due to the ERCOT market design. Add in the costs of the February 2021 winter storm: 246 dead, $2.1 billion in government mandated bailouts, and economic losses estimated by the State of Texas to have been more than $100 billion. And now add in $12 billion.
Who would have thunk nothing bad would happen.
This is probably much more volatile than Bitcoin.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Texas power plants have no responsibility to provide electricity in emergencies, judges rule
Welcome to the libertarian paradise of Texas, where the deregulated, for-profit power companies are both unable to provide power for all their customers AND can't be held liable for letting your grandma freeze to death when their duct-tape and coat-hanger-ass power grid inevitably collapses under the weight of neglect and refusal to divert any money away from almighty shareholder profits
Welcome to the libertarian paradise of Texas, where the deregulated, for-profit power companies are both unable to provide power for all their customers AND can't be held liable for letting your grandma freeze to death when their duct-tape and coat-hanger-ass power grid inevitably collapses under the weight of neglect and refusal to divert any money away from almighty shareholder profits
IIRC, Texas does not have a capacity market, only an energy market for wholesale electricity. This is a failure, IMO, of the regulators to design the market properly, so that competition and profit motives result in a reliable system. If there was a capacity market, like in the northeast, it would provide incentive to build generators and collect revenue for just having the capacity available if/when needed.
As others have pointed out, why build generators that will drive down pricing for energy, if energy is your only source of revenue?
GSP
As others have pointed out, why build generators that will drive down pricing for energy, if energy is your only source of revenue?
GSP
canasion35
Active Member
Your memory serves you well, you're correct in ERCOT not having a capacity market. Ancillaries, yes, straight capacity, no.
The idea is that if you don't buid generators, somebody else will build them. In an energy-only market you need low barriers to entry so that happens. That should really be the case now given renewables (including home solar) and batteries. Plus there are demand-response programs.
But remember that the major failure for Texas was _not_ a capacity problem. It was an _energy_ problem. More generation wouldn't have prevented it.
Well it is second full day below 12 degrees, woke up it was 9.5F, and grid is holding up. What is different then uri, not two weeks below freezing and not as cold, improvements to gas supply, battery storage now.
MontyFloyd
Member
North TX? I am in Houston Metro, over 24 hours freezing (despite the grossly incorrect predictions), today generating huge amount of juice from my PV.
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