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Estimated Model X starting price?

nitrochino

Member
Apr 18, 2014
141
-2
New York
Model X 70 $89000
Model X 85 $99000
Model X P85 $115000

Battery Upgrade, $3000
Next GenSeats, $3000
Air Suspension, $2500
21" Wheels, $4500
Sound Studio $2500
Auto Pilot, $2500
Premium Interior, $3000

Roughly equals the price of a fully loaded Sig X without Ludicrous Mode, etc.
 
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gordo

Member
Jan 16, 2015
223
91
CA
It's a rough estimate, and some of these options may not even be available. Plus the optional third row is a wildcard.

I appreciate your rough estimate for what it is. Now can you change the title and content of your first post so that it's clear you're speculating and have not just disclosed actual MSRPs?
 

drinkerofkoolaid

Active Member
Nov 3, 2012
1,816
1,756
F
1) Not accurate

2) Even if true, this is a bargain considering what a comparable vehicle costs.

3) This doesn't account for the heavy vehicle incentive. The Model X will almost definitely qualify. Is there any way the Model X weighs less than 6,000 pounds?

4) If the base price for a Model X is $99,000 (including additions), it would still be a bargain. The total addressable market for the Model X is at least 5-10 times the total addressable market for the Model S.

5) To give you an idea of the total addressable market for the Model X, BMW sold 147,381 X5 in 2014.
 
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MassX1317

Addicted to TMC
Aug 21, 2013
422
14
Cape Cod, Massachusetts
Trying to back into base price...
 

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chickensevil

Active Member
Jan 2, 2014
4,139
261
Virginia, United States
Trying to back into base price...

That seems more plausible considering there are so many options the OP is leaving out from his backing out to the base car.

Also note that a maxed S and maxed Sig X only have a 750$ price difference. So it can't be too different on the bottom end the likely big difference is the forced cost of going AWD since there is no non-d option on the X. Otherwise it looks like the prices are going to be pretty dang close.

What I could also see happening is them either lowering the price of the S or raisi g the price of the X down the road. Keep in mind that the S underwent some very rapid price changes in the early days...
 

Vexar

Member
Oct 11, 2012
553
94
Citrus Heights, CA
What I could also see happening is them either lowering the price of the S or raising the price of the X down the road. Keep in mind that the S underwent some very rapid price changes in the early days...

The Model S went through a ton of little option price changes, perpetually, over the first couple years. As did what went into the tech package, leather splitting into premium leather. Several early vehicles were released with features at no cost which were cost plus later. The only reason I could see Tesla Motors lowering the price of the Model S is the battery packs become so cheap from where they were initially that they grossly exceed their profit margin per vehicle. That is to say profit not considering R&D budgets, which the financial bloggers/media pundits are unable to comprehend. My expectation is that this can happen post Model III, post Gigafactory for sure, and perhaps when someone else releases something competitive from a performance and price point. Remember, Elon is backing the resale value of every Model S, so in doing that, he would be hard-pressed to drop the price.

What's most likely going to continue to happen is the Model S is going to get 6 1/2% more range per year (but not every year) and more features at no additional cost (a Model S 70 versus a Model S 60 is now a significant bargain). I don''t think these cars are going to get lighter, that requires recertifications. I cite the Model S 40 being a 60 kwh battery disabled (much like the Intel 386 sx and 386 dx processors were the same chip but the math coprocessor was simply disabled) as an example of what Tesla Motors will do. I'd love it if my car were 500 pounds lighter.

My expectation on the base Model X price is between 6% and 10% above the Model S, so $74,000 to $77,000. This was quoted at one point. There's more raw material involved. Definitely more windshield!

Also, I believe that some options are going to be more and some options are going to be the same. Autopilot. That's got to be the same price. Wheel upgrades have got to be more, as they are bigger. Twin onboard charging is probably going to be the same. Motor upgrades are going to be more because they are more powerful. Since Tesla Motors doesn't really have competition, they won't be doing screwy competitive things with pricing. If it costs them more, they charge more. Every option has a profit point in it.

The one counter-argument to my point on pricing is the ChaDEMO adapter. It went from $1000 down to $500 and I have no understanding as to why. Did they get a much better supplier? I'm really glad to see the community in the business of sharing them.
 

lucy

bluehair
Jul 5, 2015
320
13
Des Moines, IA
3) This doesn't account for the heavy vehicle incentive. The Model X will almost definitely qualify. Is there any way the Model X weighs less than 6,000 pounds? .

another thread noted an encounter with a transport driver that stated the weight of the MX he had delivered was 6100#
 

chickensevil

Active Member
Jan 2, 2014
4,139
261
Virginia, United States
The Model S went through a ton of little option price changes, perpetually, over the first couple years.

snip

So they have both raised and lowered prices of things on the S. For example the base 70 is a significantly better car than the 60 was even if you ignore the battery upgrade. They essentially took the majority of the original "tech package" and made that standard features and there are some other things they have straight added to the car that was never available, that are now included in the base 70. They essentially stopped increasing the price of the car in 2014 and essentially started dropping the price. I re-spec'd my car at the end of 2014 after they released the auto-pilot and dual motors and I could get my exact car with a handful of extras for around 5k cheaper. It has been a while so doing it all over again going with *exactly* what I got (so that means normal leather seats, not the new stuff, and not taking the autopilot convenience package), I still get the new safety stuff, being forced to take premium interior to get the power lift gate, cornering lights, and lighted handles actually *adds* the fog lamps, leather trim, lighting and such. and all this comes to 89,750 before incentives or taxes, I paid 96,000 for my car in early 2014. I could actually take the autopilot option and the dual motors and only come out paying an extra 1,250 for the car.

Anyway, what I am getting at is that the price has gone both ways, but if anything the price has come down over the past year not up... and it wouldn't surprise me to see it continue to come down a bit more with the release of the X in order to offset the real cost difference between the two. I am willing to bet it will be to get the same targeted GM on both vehicles of ~25% or whatever it is.

That being said, the forced dual motors choice means the base X will be a 70D and therefore will not be priced lower than 75,000$ (caveat-ed with an "unless they lower the price of the S). I would not be surprised to see it as high as 80,000$ due to the increased size, but anything beyond that would be a shock to me overall since the maxed price is only slightly more expensive than a maxed Model S.

Yes, some features will cost more on the X, but some might not. The big thing is that the motors and battery upgrades should stay static since they are actually using the exact same stuff in both cars (as opposed to what you were suggesting). The only feature that is actually different between the two (assuming they translate anything else new in the X down to the S) would be the rear jump seats vs the 3rd row seating. This was accounted for in MassX1317's post where he made the 3rd row cost 3,500$, this seems like a fair price as compared to the 3,000$ cost of the rear child seats, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4,000$ cost here. I wouldn't be surprised to see the wheels costing around the same (yes they are different sizes, I get that), and everything else should match up 1 for 1 feature wise to cost. So the only burning question will be the base cost of the X vs the base cost of the S and I would give that up to a 5k premium of the 70D.
 

Vexar

Member
Oct 11, 2012
553
94
Citrus Heights, CA
That being said, the forced dual motors choice means the base X will be a 70D and therefore will not be priced lower than 75,000$ (caveat-ed with an "unless they lower the price of the S). I would not be surprised to see it as high as 80,000$ due to the increased size, but anything beyond that would be a shock to me overall since the maxed price is only slightly more expensive than a maxed Model S.

You make valid points, but we are talking a difference of 74-77k versus 75-80k. For those who are stretching to buy the Model X base, save up $77k + appropriate taxes plus $1200 delivery fee.

Yes, some features will cost more on the X, but some might not. The big thing is that the motors and battery upgrades should stay static since they are actually using the exact same stuff in both cars (as opposed to what you were suggesting).

According to this mega-thread: 762 HP (259hp F + 503hp R)
the p85D has 188hp F and 470hp R.
the p85 is 416 hp
the S 85 is 362 hp (and the S 60 can only get 302 hp out of it due to the inverter). This is now being listed as 382 hp for the motor only.
According to this spec page, the motor horsepower is identical. I stand corrected, but I blame Tesla Motors for introducing confusion about overall horsepower.
I'm really, really glad hp means so little to me. If I were shopping with priority emphasis on that attribute, I'd go nuts. I'm only remotely glad I understand what the iconel contactors are, due in part to following SpaceX.

I am in full agreement that the motors now (as well as the batteries) are the same components. I read a quote that the Model X and Model S share 30% of the same components.
Broad strokes:
chassis: no
body panels: no
wheels & tires: no
glass: no
latches and door assemblies: mixed
door handles: no
seats, interior paneling, headliner, vents, carpeting: no
fans, service motors, lights, cabling: yes
displays: yes
steering wheel and controls: yes (?)
Power systems, motor, batteries: yes
Sensors, sound system, internet: yes
Software: majority

In brief, I think the difficult/complicated stuff they can share is being shared. Since they make their own plastic and aluminium parts I think and a price differential for all that will be by the pound, which is negligible, since aluminum coil is priced at between $2000 and $4000 a ton (versus $500-$800 a ton for galvanized steel) and a 10% difference in mass won't be more than a couple hundred dollars. My guess is that the windshield to the heavens is a greater contributor to price than the stamped aluminum mass differential.
 

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