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Estimates of January Model X production

So, we now have enough information to make some very rough estimates of January Model X production. We know that in December, they produced 507 Model Xs. As of January 30, 2016, they have produced at least 444 (approximately) production Model Xs (because people at the event last night reported that production engineers said that they produce Model Xs in roughly VIN order, and 444 was a VIN of one of the display production Model Xs). That means that they have probably produced a minimum of something like 1200 Sigs (could be more like 1000, we don't really know; the highest reported VIN on modelxtracker.com is 897), plus 60ish Founders, plus around 450 production Model Xs total. They may have produced some more production Model Xs; there are people with VINs up to 807 on the tracker, although VINs may be assigned before production begins, and are almost certainly assigned before production is completed. :)

So, if we assume 1000 Sigs + 60 Founders + 450 production, that's a minimum of a total of 1510 Model Xs produced (not delivered, of course, but produced), of which right around 1000 would have been produced during January. An upper bound might be assuming 1200 Sigs, plus 60 Founders, plus 900 production, which would be 2160 total, or 1600 and change during January. (I think the actual number would be closer to the lower bound than the upper, but I figured I'd calculate both).

So I think that they averaged about 250-300 Model Xs per week in January (right in the neighborhood of the "238 per week" from the announcement about Q4 production, but with a little bit of a ramp from that production rate).

The key question, of course, is what the ramp will be like from that point (and indeed, what the ramp within January was like--230, 250, 270, and 290 weekly production would average 260, but it's a very different situation for the future than 260, 260, 260, 260.)
 

vgrinshpun

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Apr 5, 2013
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The production is usually shut down first week of January. The cadence of production at Tesla factory seem to be 48 weeks per year, 12 production weeks per quarter, with one week of no production per quarter.

So the total should be divided by 3, not 4 weeks.
 

schonelucht

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Mar 10, 2014
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On the other hand, we also have a report from the factory during the event that the mix of S/X that was running then was representative for overall production. That mix was 1 in 10 at best which would point to 120-160 model Xs per week.

And then final question : if a model X can't be delivered to a customer because an integral part of the process hasn't been completed yet since it's shifted to the service center can you really say that the car was 'produced'?
 
On the other hand, we also have a report from the factory during the event that the mix of S/X that was running then was representative for overall production. That mix was 1 in 10 at best which would point to 120-160 model Xs per week.

And then final question : if a model X can't be delivered to a customer because an integral part of the process hasn't been completed yet since it's shifted to the service center can you really say that the car was 'produced'?

That mix was my best estimate on a small part of the line I could see on a day when the line was in maintenance mode, but should still have been reflective other than not moving at the same pace it would on Mon-Thursday.
 

andrewket

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Dec 20, 2012
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And then final question : if a model X can't be delivered to a customer because an integral part of the process hasn't been completed yet since it's shifted to the service center can you really say that the car was 'produced'?

^^^ this. We also know of a number of cars that were 99% complete weeks ago that are still sitting in limbo at the factory.
 
The production is usually shut down first week of January. The cadence of production at Tesla factory seem to be 48 weeks per year, 12 production weeks per quarter, with one week of no production per quarter.

So the total should be divided by 3, not 4 weeks.

Just to add a little. Some months have more than 4 weeks, so it kind of evens out to 12 weeks per quarter. A qtr. = 12 weeks which equals approx. 3 months. 4 qtrs. = 48 weeks, so no month in the production period consists only of 3 weeks unless the line is shut down for more than one week.
 
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