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Estimating demand change with Google Trends

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by 9837264723849, Apr 15, 2015.

  1. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

    Aug 24, 2014
    #1 9837264723849, Apr 15, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2015
    Here are the charts from Google Trends that represent the overall search interest for Tesla Motors and the Model S, worldwide, in the US and in California.

    Take these measurements with a grain of salt because they track all queries related to the topics, not the exact search query for [Tesla Motors] and [Tesla Model S]. Also, search interest is relative to total search in these regions and they depends on many different factors (including product announcement, media coverage, reviews and controversies).

    Screen Shot 2015-04-15 at 16.44.15.png
    Screen Shot 2015-04-15 at 16.44.34.png
    Screen Shot 2015-04-15 at 16.44.50.png

    Since Nov 2013 search interest for the Model S has plateaued globally and decreased by ~30% in the US. Meanwhile, interest in the company stock has increased compared to searches for the Model S.

    Here's a chart for the US that compares search trends for the exact queries "model s" and "tsla" (stock ticker). In March, searches for "tsla" represented 37% of searches for "model s".

    Here's the trend line for this ratio over the years:
    Screen Shot 2015-04-15 at 17.29.05.png

    There are many reasons for these figures/charts to completely unreliable.
    What's your opinion?

    Edit: can't fix the title, sorry
  2. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

    Jul 29, 2013
    I am curious what is the vertical axis scaling and grid resolution on the first 3 graphs

    Just checked the links, it seems to be 20 per grid unit
  3. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

    May 23, 2014
    Atlanta, GA
    I'm not sure it measures demand, but it does measure interest. Perhaps if you do more focused searches like "Tesla Model X" or "Tesla fire" you can get more interesting results that reflect more on what is drawing particular interest.

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