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Estimating EU reservations

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by DonPedro, Aug 5, 2013.

  1. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    #1 DonPedro, Aug 5, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2013
    It seems that it would be possible to get a reliable figure for the number of finalized reservations in the EU. The reason is that Tesla issues invoices (for the deposits) to those who have finalized, which have invoice numbers that start at XX00000001, where XX is the country code. Thus, the invoice number from a recently finalized order in a given country one can know how many orders have been finalized there.

    The invoice number is found at: My Tesla>View Profile>View Invoices and then clicking the invoice.

    Please, people, hunt for invoice numbers from your country and report them here together with the date for finalization.

    Here is what I have:


    Norway: 2165 (11 August 13)
    Denmark: >100 (8 August 13)
    Germany: 173 (5 July 2013)
    Netherlands (and Belgium?): 1025 (end July 2013)
    Belgium: 67
    France: 30 (4 June 2013)
    Switzerland: 300+?

    PS: Would be good to add this to the EU reservations spreadsheet. Not sure who is in charge of that...
     
  2. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    A friend of mine finalized on friday. I will ask him. Btw, with options his car costed 640 000 nok(110k $)
     
  3. Volker.Berlin

    Volker.Berlin Member

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    #3 Volker.Berlin, Aug 5, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2013
    Germany: 173 (5 July 2013)
     
  4. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Using invoice numbers is a very uncertain way to extrapolate to # of finalized reservations. Are you assuming that Tesla never issues invoices for anything else? Or ever makes a mistake, or cancels an invoice for any reason?
     
  5. Volker.Berlin

    Volker.Berlin Member

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    At least it's a pretty safe upper bound. In Germany in particular this upper bound is so low that I certainly hope the real number are not too far below that...
     
  6. Cobos

    Cobos S60 owner since 2013

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    Currently it seems to be tracking pretty well with orders. Though I suppose as soon as they actually start delivering cars they will invoice you again for the final amount so number of invoices /2 equals orders in Europe. And a few errors in the numbering is natural, but you can see here that the number of orders in Norway vs Germany seem to be huge, tracking nicely with the data that Norway is the second best selling country for Model S.

    Cobos
     
  7. LuckyLuke

    LuckyLuke Model S P85DL

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    Netherlands had 1025 invoices end of july
     
  8. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    It's up to you guys, although I'n not entirely sure what use it is in any case. Can someone tell me why this is important to the Investors sub-forum?
     
  9. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    6700002046 Norway. 2 aug
     
  10. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    Demand being potentially the most important value driver for the stock in the mid-to-long term, I should say this is more relevant than 90% of the threads in this forum.
     
  11. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Invoicing rate of finalized reservations isn't reflective of true demand; despite the drawbacks it is at best reflective of the conversion rate from existing demand. That said, everyone in the U.S. recognized that the longer term reservation holders had the lowest finalization rates (for a variety of understandable reasons). There's no way to accurately extrapolate invoice numbers to measurement of demand with anything less than a truckload of salt.

    Suggestion: the best way of gauging demand potential will be to look at reservation rates after deliveries start, which will be any day now.....
     
  12. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    #12 DonPedro, Aug 6, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2013
    We could have a debate about the quality of the numbers. I disagree with your first sentence. Take out the possible sources of error (which are unknown, and could be zero), and invoices are measuring exactly what we want to know: The number of people who are willing to put the actual money on the table and sign the contract. By seeing it develop over time, we see the rate at which orders are flowing in. I don't know what more we could have wished for! (And it is data that will only be available much later to investors who do not investigate in this way).

    Also, I fail to see better options to gauge this at the moment. You say "look at reservation rates", but how are you going to do that? The progress of the P numbers? They aren't giving out these any more. VINs? These have been scrambled. Guidance at earnings calls? That is too slow - then we get the info at the same time as the rest of the market.


    PS: This discussion seems to me to be about the soul of this sub-forum. I thought it was mainly about getting an edge as investors, i.e. to delve into every possible source of data and understanding. But seeing that this thread is questioned - while threads such as "Anyone having a hard time sleeping the past couple weeks because of TSLA?" and "Jim Cramer from Mad Money says we are a cult" have grown long here - I wonder whether it is meant to be more of a social venue for people who bought the stock. That's fine, but then I for one won't have much reason to hang around.
     
  13. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    I'm just noting that "sources of errors" are indeed unknown and they might be zero or they might be significant. My question about the relevance of the thread to this section (when there are similar threads in other sections), is because it's retroactive looking in any case.
     
  14. nikwest

    nikwest Member

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    I think this number is more reflecting the ability of Tesla fulfilling the demand. Usually you finalize about 2 months before delivery. If there are spikes or huge growth in demand this wont be reflected as the number of finalized orders reflect what Tesla thinks it can deliver within the next two month. It's not the demand unless the limiting factor is demand, but as Elon stated several times it is production.
    Still the numbers are interesting as they show the relative demand between the countries. And this should really reflect the demand if you assume that all countries are treated equally (which Norway and Switzerland might not). I was really surprised of the very low number of German orders.
    Also numbers show at some point what percentage of production is for Europe. This again would allow to guesstimate the total amount of cars going to be produced within the next 2 months. Eventually, but with a huge truck load of salt ;)
     
  15. purplewalt

    purplewalt Active Member

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    In looking at the Tesla world map, I noticed a large number of dots in Belgium, some in Sweden and Switzerland.
    (And these are only the self-reporting numbers)
    Might also consider adding those countries to your list.
     
  16. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    It will quickly cease to be important to investors once Tesla realizes it's something we look at, lol.

    The mods should rename this thread "nothing to see here" :)
     
  17. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    How many reservations in Italy?
     
  18. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    No. Since May, all European orders have been asked to finalize right away. This number thus reflects the accumulated demand in each European country to date.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Will be added as soon as someone reports an invoice number from each.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Don't know. Need someone to report a recent invoice number from Italy to know.
     
  19. gelden

    gelden Active Member

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    Belgium is invoiced from the Netherlands.
     
  20. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Joking aside, it might well be seen as information that they don't want out there and Tesla could simply allocate blocks of invoice numbers which would really screw up the assumptions here.
     

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