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Estimating EU reservations

DonPedro

Member
Mar 28, 2013
688
1
Oslo, Norway
It seems that it would be possible to get a reliable figure for the number of finalized reservations in the EU. The reason is that Tesla issues invoices (for the deposits) to those who have finalized, which have invoice numbers that start at XX00000001, where XX is the country code. Thus, the invoice number from a recently finalized order in a given country one can know how many orders have been finalized there.

The invoice number is found at: My Tesla>View Profile>View Invoices and then clicking the invoice.

Please, people, hunt for invoice numbers from your country and report them here together with the date for finalization.

Here is what I have:


Norway: 2165 (11 August 13)
Denmark: >100 (8 August 13)
Germany: 173 (5 July 2013)
Netherlands (and Belgium?): 1025 (end July 2013)
Belgium: 67
France: 30 (4 June 2013)
Switzerland: 300+?

PS: Would be good to add this to the EU reservations spreadsheet. Not sure who is in charge of that...
 
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NigelM

Recovering Member
Apr 3, 2011
13,386
555
Northern Virginia
Using invoice numbers is a very uncertain way to extrapolate to # of finalized reservations. Are you assuming that Tesla never issues invoices for anything else? Or ever makes a mistake, or cancels an invoice for any reason?
 

Volker.Berlin

Member
Dec 16, 2011
243
0
Using invoice numbers is a very uncertain way to extrapolate to # of finalized reservations. Are you assuming that Tesla never issues invoices for anything else? Or ever makes a mistake, or cancels an invoice for any reason?
At least it's a pretty safe upper bound. In Germany in particular this upper bound is so low that I certainly hope the real number are not too far below that...
 

Cobos

S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Jun 22, 2007
1,503
2,060
Oslo, Norway
Using invoice numbers is a very uncertain way to extrapolate to # of finalized reservations. Are you assuming that Tesla never issues invoices for anything else? Or ever makes a mistake, or cancels an invoice for any reason?
Currently it seems to be tracking pretty well with orders. Though I suppose as soon as they actually start delivering cars they will invoice you again for the final amount so number of invoices /2 equals orders in Europe. And a few errors in the numbering is natural, but you can see here that the number of orders in Norway vs Germany seem to be huge, tracking nicely with the data that Norway is the second best selling country for Model S.

Cobos
 

NigelM

Recovering Member
Apr 3, 2011
13,386
555
Northern Virginia
It's up to you guys, although I'n not entirely sure what use it is in any case. Can someone tell me why this is important to the Investors sub-forum?
 

DonPedro

Member
Mar 28, 2013
688
1
Oslo, Norway
It's up to you guys, although I'n not entirely sure what use it is in any case. Can someone tell me why this is important to the Investors sub-forum?

Demand being potentially the most important value driver for the stock in the mid-to-long term, I should say this is more relevant than 90% of the threads in this forum.
 

NigelM

Recovering Member
Apr 3, 2011
13,386
555
Northern Virginia
Demand being potentially the most important value driver for the stock in the mid-to-long term, I should say this is more relevant than 90% of the threads in this forum.

Invoicing rate of finalized reservations isn't reflective of true demand; despite the drawbacks it is at best reflective of the conversion rate from existing demand. That said, everyone in the U.S. recognized that the longer term reservation holders had the lowest finalization rates (for a variety of understandable reasons). There's no way to accurately extrapolate invoice numbers to measurement of demand with anything less than a truckload of salt.

Suggestion: the best way of gauging demand potential will be to look at reservation rates after deliveries start, which will be any day now.....
 

DonPedro

Member
Mar 28, 2013
688
1
Oslo, Norway
Invoicing rate of finalized reservations isn't reflective of true demand; despite the drawbacks it is at best reflective of the conversion rate from existing demand. That said, everyone in the U.S. recognized that the longer term reservation holders had the lowest finalization rates (for a variety of understandable reasons). There's no way to accurately extrapolate invoice numbers to measurement of demand with anything less than a truckload of salt.

Suggestion: the best way of gauging demand potential will be to look at reservation rates after deliveries start, which will be any day now.....

We could have a debate about the quality of the numbers. I disagree with your first sentence. Take out the possible sources of error (which are unknown, and could be zero), and invoices are measuring exactly what we want to know: The number of people who are willing to put the actual money on the table and sign the contract. By seeing it develop over time, we see the rate at which orders are flowing in. I don't know what more we could have wished for! (And it is data that will only be available much later to investors who do not investigate in this way).

Also, I fail to see better options to gauge this at the moment. You say "look at reservation rates", but how are you going to do that? The progress of the P numbers? They aren't giving out these any more. VINs? These have been scrambled. Guidance at earnings calls? That is too slow - then we get the info at the same time as the rest of the market.


PS: This discussion seems to me to be about the soul of this sub-forum. I thought it was mainly about getting an edge as investors, i.e. to delve into every possible source of data and understanding. But seeing that this thread is questioned - while threads such as "Anyone having a hard time sleeping the past couple weeks because of TSLA?" and "Jim Cramer from Mad Money says we are a cult" have grown long here - I wonder whether it is meant to be more of a social venue for people who bought the stock. That's fine, but then I for one won't have much reason to hang around.
 
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NigelM

Recovering Member
Apr 3, 2011
13,386
555
Northern Virginia
Take out the possible sources of error (which are unknown, and could be zero), and invoices are measuring exactly what we want to know: The number of people who are willing to put the actual money on the table and sign the contract.

I'm just noting that "sources of errors" are indeed unknown and they might be zero or they might be significant. My question about the relevance of the thread to this section (when there are similar threads in other sections), is because it's retroactive looking in any case.
 

nikwest

Member
Jun 14, 2011
202
0
Munich, Germany
I think this number is more reflecting the ability of Tesla fulfilling the demand. Usually you finalize about 2 months before delivery. If there are spikes or huge growth in demand this wont be reflected as the number of finalized orders reflect what Tesla thinks it can deliver within the next two month. It's not the demand unless the limiting factor is demand, but as Elon stated several times it is production.
Still the numbers are interesting as they show the relative demand between the countries. And this should really reflect the demand if you assume that all countries are treated equally (which Norway and Switzerland might not). I was really surprised of the very low number of German orders.
Also numbers show at some point what percentage of production is for Europe. This again would allow to guesstimate the total amount of cars going to be produced within the next 2 months. Eventually, but with a huge truck load of salt ;)
 

purplewalt

Active Member
Jun 9, 2013
1,629
579
Dallas, Texas
In looking at the Tesla world map, I noticed a large number of dots in Belgium, some in Sweden and Switzerland.
(And these are only the self-reporting numbers)
Might also consider adding those countries to your list.
 

CapitalistOppressor

Active Member
Jun 18, 2012
1,621
0
It's up to you guys, although I'n not entirely sure what use it is in any case. Can someone tell me why this is important to the Investors sub-forum?

It will quickly cease to be important to investors once Tesla realizes it's something we look at, lol.

The mods should rename this thread "nothing to see here" :)
 

DonPedro

Member
Mar 28, 2013
688
1
Oslo, Norway
I think this number is more reflecting the ability of Tesla fulfilling the demand. Usually you finalize about 2 months before delivery.

No. Since May, all European orders have been asked to finalize right away. This number thus reflects the accumulated demand in each European country to date.

- - - Updated - - -

In looking at the Tesla world map, I noticed a large number of dots in Belgium, some in Sweden and Switzerland.
(And these are only the self-reporting numbers)
Might also consider adding those countries to your list.

Will be added as soon as someone reports an invoice number from each.

- - - Updated - - -

How many reservations in Italy?

Don't know. Need someone to report a recent invoice number from Italy to know.
 

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