EU Market Situation and Outlook

[green48]

These Europe and US numbers for July aren't adding up. For 5000 in-transit cars, these aren't very significant jumps in July deliveries. Is it possible that InsideEV has made some big mistake with their US numbers? Specifically with their Model X #s? They seem low. I know they're historically pretty accurate, does anyone know exactly how InsideEV makes their estimates?

Also, does anyone have monthly figures for Asia? That may be a significant # of those 5000 cars as well...

 

[mmd]

We would have known if there were any production shutdown. There weren't any.

Funny. How would you have known? Tesla never announces these shutdowns. It is not a positive news.

Aren't you the one spreading rumors yesterday of 8000 deliveries in July?
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Tomorrow we will see insideEV's estimates for July. Someone here estimated that MS deliveries might already be well past 8K for July, which I think is unprecedented and extremely good. Let's see how it turns out.

 

[Fallenone]

The 640 Wh/mile (400Wh/km) at 100 mph is gross overestimation. My three year old P85 consumes about 325Wh/mile at 75mph with some up and downgrades (as I observe every day on my regular commute). The 90D will do markedly better, say around 300Wh/mile.

As seen from the video I posted above consumption at the sustained 125mph was 840Wh/mile. The consumption at the mid-point of 100mph can conservatively be estimated to be significantly less than 300 + 840 / 2 = 570. This proves that 640Wh/mile at 100 mph is way off.

I am going to measure what the consumption in my P85 is at 100 mph... The 90D will do markedly better

Check out Bjorn's video using his XP90DL on the German Autobahn. He drove 14 minutes covering 38.7 km with an average speed of 166 km/h. Range at start was 299 km with 296 Wh/km, at end was 191 km with 424 Wh/km. He was doing crazy stuff though. Went as high as 248 km/h.

 

[maoing]

We would have known if there were any production shutdown. There weren't any.

My elementary school math leads me to make such speculation. Otherwise 5K number doesn't work at all. The most challenging part for 2nd half of 2016 is the demand instead of production, mark my words. My prediction for annual delivery ranked 2nd for 2014, and I predicted TM will miss 2015 guidance. The same prediction still holds for 2016.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Check out Bjorn's video using his XP90DL on the German Autobahn. He drove 14 minutes covering 38.7 km with an average speed of 166 km/h. Range at start was 299 km with 296 Wh/km, at end was 191 km with 424 Wh/km. He was doing crazy stuff though. Went as high as 248 km/h.

Thanks, I actually looked through this video, but I doubt that we can extract any information pertinent to our discussion. MX is much heavier vehicle with larger frontal area, but most importantly, there was traffic, and in spite of the 40km stretch of unlimited autobahn in front of him, Bjorn was doing multiple full on accelerations from 75 to as high as 150MPH, so energy consumption is not really representative of the sustained 100mph autobahn driving.

The video, though, demonstrated the larger point I was making: that sustained driving at 100mph can be seemingly done theoretically, but in practice is not really possible...

 

[schonelucht]

Belgium reported 20 deliveries (32 last quarter, 38 last year)

 

[Fallenone]

Belgium reported 20 deliveries (32 last quarter, 38 last year)

When will UK and German give numbers? These two are the biggest now aren't they?

 

[TMSE]

My elementary school math leads me to make such speculation. Otherwise 5K number doesn't work at all. The most challenging part for 2nd half of 2016 is the demand instead of production, mark my words. My prediction for annual delivery ranked 2nd for 2014, and I predicted TM will miss 2015 guidance. The same prediction still holds for 2016.

It is not about your elementary math prowess. It is about common sense.

Thousands of line workers work in the factory. You think news about any shutdown event doesn't get leaked out? Given the very high short interest, you think those shorters don't have people in place to report on such things?

 

[schonelucht]

My elementary school math leads me to make such speculation. Otherwise 5K number doesn't work at all.

I don't think it's that impossible. 2 week of US orders = 3000, 6 weeks of EU order = 1200, 4 weeks of CH orders = 800.

 

[schonelucht]

When will UK and German give numbers? These two are the biggest now aren't they?

UK unfortunately will only have solid numbers for us in December. We may have a guesstimate on the 6th. I just checked Germany and it reported as well. 89 for July which compares with 86 last quarter and 132 last year.

Without any surprises, July total should be around 600, maybe a bit more but probably not over 700. Around 50 of those are Model X.

 

[Fallenone]

UK unfortunately will only have solid numbers for us in December. We may have a guesstimate on the 6th. I just checked Germany and it reported as well. 89 for July which compares with 86 last quarter and 132 last year.

Without any surprises, July total should be around 600, maybe a bit more but probably not over 700.

Thank you sir.

 

[RobStark]

My prediction for annual delivery ranked 2nd for 2014, and I predicted TM will miss 2015 guidance. The same prediction still holds for 2016.

In Q4 last year I said you were likely to win the contest and you said you were overly optimistic. That Tesla would likely do much worse.

For this year I predicted 77,777 units. I am liking my chances.

 

[TMSE]

UK unfortunately will only have solid numbers for us in December. We may have a guesstimate on the 6th. I just checked Germany and it reported as well. 89 for July which compares with 86 last quarter and 132 last year.

Without any surprises, July total should be around 600, maybe a bit more but probably not over 700. Around 50 of those are Model X.

I guess I am not reading it right. Was it 89 for July compared to 86 for all of last quarter or April? And, 132 is for July of last year or all Q2 of last year? Thanks.

 

[maoing]

It is not about your elementary math prowess. It is about common sense.

Thousands of line workers work in the factory. You think news about any shutdown event doesn't get leaked out? Given the very high short interest, you think those shorters don't have people in place to report on such things?

If I would be shorts (definitely not), I would keep such information as secrete and then release such information when they try to cover. Btw, it's just my speculation, we shall see Q3 guidance tomorrow.

 

[maoing]

I don't think it's that impossible. 2 week of US orders = 3000, 6 weeks of EU order = 1200, 4 weeks of CH orders = 800.

Thanks for the information. The number leads to me think it's 2nd QoQ and YoY decline quarter even including X delivery.

 

[schonelucht]

I guess I am not reading it right. Was it 89 for July compared to 86 for all of last quarter or April? And, 132 is for July of last year or all Q2 of last year? Thanks.

Sorry when I compare it is always on a month to month basis. So last quarter means 3 months ago (April vs July) and last year means 12 months ago (July'15 vs July '16). Last quarter, Tesla had 362 deliveries over the 3 months in Germany. Last year, they had 402 deliveries over the 3 months of the second quarter and 395 over the 3 months in the third quarter.

 

[schonelucht]

Thanks for the information. The number leads to me think it's 2nd QoQ and YoY decline quarter even including X delivery.

Remember those are delivery rates for the beginning of a quarter which are always at a much lower rate than deliveries later in last month. It's basically impossible we will decline q-o-q from Q2 to Q3 when combining S and X.

 

[maoing]

Remember those are delivery rates for the beginning of a quarter which are always at a much lower rate than deliveries later in last month. It's basically impossible we will decline q-o-q from Q2 to Q3 when combining S and X.

Theoretically we should see growth in Q3. But so far the July number is very confusing, even considering the lower rate in the first month of a quarter, but we all knew 5K in transit by end of June, so we should expect better July number. It's going to be fun to watch Q3 guidance tomorrow.

 

[maoing]

It's even more fun that no Q3 guidance was given today. I guess market would expect 20K-25K for Q3 delivery. With existing July data, it's going to be very challenging for TM.

 

[bonaire]

Given numbers so far, we know:
- H1 2016 in Europe were below H1 2015 And July is not shaping up to be good. Cars in transit still in transit, it appears.
- Europe may actually present sales volume of 2016 less than 2015, inclusive of Model X.

Model X Production reservation ratio was 1:4.8 for Europe:USA on Sept 7, 2015 - not long before they stopped showing the #s.
The ratio on 9/7/15 was 4287:20612.

Some on both sides of the Atlantic may have chosen to switch to Model S since allowing for heightened MS deliveries.
If Model X is to be strong in Europe it seems it will be late Q3 and Q4.
Total Model X to Europe in 2016 (barring 5-seat orders) is probably in the 4000 to 4500 range inclusive of Sigs.

The 5150 cars in transit is supposed to be named customers and not inventory layout. What we should see is a better July/August in Europe than we are starting to see now. Let's review early Sept after August is done. We do know Norway is slowing and Denmark is "done".

What I believe happened was Q2 was initially setup to build and deploy the new look Model S (and was discussed on Q2 ER call last night) and slowed up some customer order builds and the last couple weeks of Q2 were a flurry of customer order builds - they then became "in transit". In my tracking data, I can look at the Prod Start dates of Model S and see relatively few production starts in April (19), then May (97), 1st two weeks June (66) and final two weeks (63) making 129 "samples" for June. This seems to lead to favoring inventory and Model X builds earlier in Q2 for transit through the quarter and making customer orders for MS a little later. It also helps some customers who are eager to pay for their cars when Tesla presents the finance document to the customer - pay for it, even if car was in transit. A car paid for while in-transit places the monetary figure into the Customer Deposits accounting item - and it shows up in the earnings report (yesterday). That number was very large this time around and it allows analysts to view that number as a net positive, even "Huge!". The data supports this because the MS Vin # rate of issue actually fell the last two months of Q2 on a weekly basis. Blocks of inventory build-out Vin #s for Model S (refresh) were setup at the end of Q1 and would have been built earlier in the quarter. Many of these were with the old-fascia front end (for the USA) P90D/P90DL and new (for Europe), many also P90D, within the same Vin # ranges. I've collected hundreds of such Vin #s and all point to being inserted into the flow on 3/30/16 (134xxx-136xxx) and again 4/6/16 (1377xx). More blocks of fewer occur later in April. Were they part of the 45% "increased orders" of Q1?

All I am saying is that the cars in transit were a by-product of building inventory ahead of customers and possibly in order to cause the sales profile like we saw for Q1 (sluggish MS sales, 5150 cars in transit, high Customer Deposits).

I present this information simply as guidance if you guys are not actually doing this deep due diligence.

In the big picture? Doesn't matter. But data is objective and realistic. I like data because it is the only thing we can trust.