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PaulRocket
Member
Wait a minute does this mean they only delivered 1208 cars to Asia in Q2? They delivered 14402 cars worldwide in Q2, according to InsideEvs they delivered 10240 cars to the US, then 2954 cars to Europe which means deliveries to Asia must be 1208?! Seems very low.
Well, this chart from 3 different sources seems to come to a similar low number. 3287 for January to July.
China Electric Car Sales Up 188%, Still Dominated By BYD
There is no trace of those 5150 in the European deliveries. If they were inventory they'd show up as well because the numbers we count here are car registrations. For example 141764 is listed as inventory in Norway on Tesla website and was registered there in August. But then again, we know some weird stuff did show up : for example search for '14577' in Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge and you can quite clearly see the range of 10 consecutive cars going to Oslo. The range extends to '14578' or '14582' as well. Maybe a big fleet buy? Or inventory?
See above. For Europe, inventory delivered is also counted as a new registration. So real customer deliveries are possibly lower, especially in Q2 because they had to refresh their demo/loaner cars with the new facelift. @bonaire probably has better accounting on just how much inventory was delivered in Q2, but I would not be surprised if it was 500 cars for Europe alone.
@PaulRocket,
Because Tesla published their USA numbers for 2014 and 2015 (HERE) and we already had global and Europe numbers, that made it possible to calculate accurate numbers for Asia/Pacific for 2014 and 2015.
Asia/Pacific Q2 2014 = 782 units
Asia/Pacific Q2 2015 = 1293 units
This is very useful because we don't have 2016 USA numbers but we still have global and Europe numbers. That means if one can guess Asia/Pacific, it will possible to calculate North America. Looking at those numbers above, my guess for APAC Q2 is 1808 units. Based on that, I would calculate the rest as follows for Q2 2016:
APAC = 1808 (Estimate)
Global = 14,402
Europe = 3106
North America = 14402 - 3106 - 1808 = 9488
Canada = 366 (Estimate)
USA = 9488 - 366 = 9122
By the way, if you open the wiki topic and scroll down, you can see a summary of continents. Click on the link that says more info for details, or just click HERE.
@mostapasta,
Thanks for the new data source for Italy. I have added it to the wiki tables. This is now our main data source for Italy.
Because Tesla published their USA numbers for 2014 and 2015 (HERE) and we already had global and Europe numbers, that made it possible to calculate accurate numbers for Asia/Pacific for 2014 and 2015.
Asia/Pacific Q2 2014 = 782 units
Asia/Pacific Q2 2015 = 1293 units
This is very useful because we don't have 2016 USA numbers but we still have global and Europe numbers. That means if one can guess Asia/Pacific, it will possible to calculate North America. Looking at those numbers above, my guess for APAC Q2 is 1808 units. Based on that, I would calculate the rest as follows for Q2 2016:
APAC = 1808 (Estimate)
Global = 14,402
Europe = 3106
North America = 14402 - 3106 - 1808 = 9488
Canada = 366 (Estimate)
USA = 9488 - 366 = 9122
By the way, if you open the wiki topic and scroll down, you can see a summary of continents. Click on the link that says more info for details, or just click HERE.
@mostapasta,
Thanks for the new data source for Italy. I have added it to the wiki tables. This is now our main data source for Italy.
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PaulRocket
Member
Thanks! Very interesting. So anyone have any guesses, on what the number of delivered vehicles for Q3 might be? At the moment they delivered about 1700 cars in July and August, correct?
In the wiki above the blue Model S table, there are links to 2013, 2014, 2015 numbers. Let me copy those here:
Model S Europe deliveries: 2013, 2014, 2015
Looking at 2015 numbers, my best guess for Q3 2016 Europe is 3517 * 1783/2273 = 2,759 units.
3517 = Q3 2015 Tesla Europe sales
1783 = Jul, Aug 2016 Tesla Europe sales
2273 = Jul, Aug 2015 Tesla Europe sales
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My guess it is going to be a higher. Last year August was when they tried their very short lived experiment of not caring for end-of-quarter numbers and having an even delivery path over the quarter. That's been long forgotten and the last month is once again the most important of them all. So I think last quarter is a better comparison. Taking into account that May was unnaturally depressed due to April production issues. So I think a little over what they have already delivered this month. 3500 to 4000.
Q3 starts July 1st - if the batching for boat and train shipments were not done and an even distribution of cars made for all continents were produced, then every month would be roughly the same deliveries. Rushing to do 2x in Sept over August is insane and not sustainable - the employees probably hate the pushes and would enjoy smooth workdays. Unless they are paid overtime for the 3rd month of a quarter...
PaulRocket
Member
Don't you think Elons email might mean employees are under a lot of pressure to deliver a lot of cars and they are really trying to get at least to Non-GAAP profitabile
@Troy
Use the following spreadsheet for Canada registrations ("CDN EV#s" tab):
Canadian EV sales
The owner posts Polk registration data, but unfortunately only for Canada (US is still an estimate).
Canada
2014: 847
2015: 2010
2016YTD: 1180 (898 S 282 X)
Use the following spreadsheet for Canada registrations ("CDN EV#s" tab):
Canadian EV sales
The owner posts Polk registration data, but unfortunately only for Canada (US is still an estimate).
Canada
2014: 847
2015: 2010
2016YTD: 1180 (898 S 282 X)
PaulR - the email said "GAAP profits" - which is going to mean non-GAAP profits are "much higher". Next thing is that various people here keep mentioning their DS is on vacation lately. There is an accounting method to help with profits by getting people to take vacation days within a period in order to lower the vacation liability of a firm - but if there is a need to deliver so much, why are the DS on vacation? Maybe it is a vacation ahead of the end of quarter rush. Usually first week of a new quarter is slower (best time for vacationing).
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Talked to a friend who works in Tesla HQ in EU about probability of getting my X next Wed when in Amsterdam and while discussing he mentioned that there's some uncertainty as they just got dumped by a major load of cars. They thought august was the spike this Q based on how many they got, but boy were they wrong and they are allocating everyone and their friends to Tilburg starting next week to help out with deliveries (like finance people etc). There are sooo many cars just off ships that they were really baffled by what the push is in Q3.
Oh and my car probably is ready for delivery a few days too late for me to pick up myself, but they still try to get it done through this huge queue
Oh and my car probably is ready for delivery a few days too late for me to pick up myself, but they still try to get it done through this huge queue
It isn't a very good way to calculate, as Model X volume deliveries hadn't really gotten started in July. Thus far in September in Norway, the Model X is leading with 142 to 47 Model S. That means Model X deliveres is exceeding 75% of the volume.
I think Q3 deliveries in Norway will be at least 850 cars. Maybe even over 1000.
PaulRocket
Member
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. I'm guessing 4,000-5,000 cars in Europe for Q3.
We'll be watching to see if the cars show up as inventory scatter around Europe or are Customers' cars (may be mix). I assume lots of Model X fulfillment.
Norway - thru 9/9 - 142 MX and 47 MS. Not sure they hit 1000 but MX is helping.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
The cara have recently arrived and the extra manpower is planned for end of next week onwards. My car is part of the large delivery and is now expected 19.09 ready for delivery...
PaulRocket
Member
Interesting! Keep us updated, especially what the situation is like when you take delivery. How many other cars are delivered on the same day, etc. maybe you could ask your DS some questions regarding the large shipment when you take delivery.
PaulRocket
Member
Any updates on Norway? Anyone close to the Tilburg factory? Anyone noticed a large number of cars on trucks or at the local SC?
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