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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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I think there's a typo. Probably "now a show-stopper", not "not a show-stopper". Contextually "now" makes more sense (blame autocorrect again?).

I was pretty sure there was something like that going on, or a lost in translation thingy but for the life of me I couldn't figure it out. It makes sense now. Thank you! (And yes, auto correct is the sugars!)
 
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I was meaning that they are doing their part and they will deliver a sugarload of cars this quarter :D Might make also loads of mistakes now, have been driving 21h of which only 4h were intermittent sleep at superchargers and am now 50km from Stockholm going to board a ferry for Tallinn in about 3h :)

Oh and not far from Stockholm saw at a gas station a truck with 6 Teslas, 4x Model S and 2x Model X to be delivered likely next week :) Just more anecdotes ;)
 
Played around with the data from Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
For comparison, Dec was 373, Mar 487, Jun 291 (see Tesla Europe Registration Stats).

Would call 550 a conservative estimate (regression for all of Sep up to today), they´d hit around 700 if they kept going as fast as during the last few days, so my guess is on 650 :).

Impressive how many Xs are being delivered!

Screen Shot 2016-09-22 at 22.28.54.png
 
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I was meaning that they are doing their part and they will deliver a sugarload of cars this quarter :D Might make also loads of mistakes now, have been driving 21h of which only 4h were intermittent sleep at superchargers and am now 50km from Stockholm going to board a ferry for Tallinn in about 3h :)

Oh and not far from Stockholm saw at a gas station a truck with 6 Teslas, 4x Model S and 2x Model X to be delivered likely next week :) Just more anecdotes ;)

Have a safe trip! I guess it is good that the Supercharger stops force you to rest ;).
 
Have a safe trip! I guess it is good that the Supercharger stops force you to rest ;).

Yes, the only reason I would do such a trip is because the superchargers allow you to rest every 150-250km and the fact that most of the way it's the car driving and you are just an observer for unusual road conditions. That last bit is especially important once you've driven >10h already and it's the middle of the night on a boring highway. Autopilot really is a huge blessing for such trips as I'd never have been able to stay conscious enough to drive safely without it. Now I just had to observe that there are no roadworks/stopped cars/carcasses etc and react only to those.

But yes based on what I saw I would say they are going to have a huge quarter this time and the EU deliveries are ticking on nicely. But again, it's delivery heavy in the back part of September so any flukes on customers issues there may well be deliveries that fall through the cracks and are delivered first week of October or so, but those hopefully are just a few.
 
Norway is going to have their third best month ever, after March '14 and '15. However we should keep in mind that this is basically because Tesla delivered nearly 3 years of backlogged MX orders in a single month. To replicate this success in December will require additional incentives (new models/features or more attractive prices are the most obvious ones)
 
One obvious thing Tesla should do is drop the pricing. The NOK has strengtened significantly over the last few months. With the current exchange rate, the situation now is that a Model X 60D costs 81,760 USD, and a Model X P100D costs 146,800 USD. The prices in the US are 74,000 USD and 135,500 USD, respectively. Tesla could drop the prices by 9-10% and still make the same profit as in the US.

But I do understand that Tesla is waiting to do this until after the end of Q3. Tesla wants the order backlog filled at the higher prices, so that they can roll this bonus-income into the earnings figures.
 
Played around with the data from Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
For comparison, Dec was 373, Mar 487, Jun 291 (see Tesla Europe Registration Stats).

Would call 550 a conservative estimate (regression for all of Sep up to today), they´d hit around 700 if they kept going as fast as during the last few days, so my guess is on 650 :).

Impressive how many Xs are being delivered!

View attachment 195635
48 registrations today should bump up the graph nicely. :)

Tesla has occasionally registered cars on weekends, so it will be interesting to see if there are any registrations this weekend.
 
48 registrations today should bump up the graph nicely. :)

Tesla has occasionally registered cars on weekends, so it will be interesting to see if there are any registrations this weekend.
Seems like there's a few new registrations trickling in today, 5 thus far. (The resolution on the data colletion script isn't good enough to see the development from hour to hour.)

If it developes like this:

Saturday: 20
Sunday: 0
Monday: 40
Tuesday: 50
Wednesday: 30
Thursday: 10
Friday: 10

The total for the month will end up at 655 Teslas total in September, 1055 in Q3. I think the probability of hitting 1000 is now very good.
 
Post Brexit Price Increase Due 1st October?

UK seems to get a price increase in October. Always wondered why Tesla didn't do it after Brexit considering how much the Pound dropped, but I guess since the UK became such a strong market in Europe they probably wanted those Q3 sales.

A big chunk of Tesla's expenses are selling, rent and upkeep of their sales and service centers. Those employees get paid in Euros, the NOK or pound and those salaries aren't adjusted for currency changes. Thus, a strengthening currency will not equate to an exact reduction in selling price.
 
Good stuff. One tale of caution. The Norwegian registrations as counted by itanywhere also include cars registered for inventory. This was easy to verify when they still published full VIN numbers. While I would assume most of what they register these days are actually customer cars, there is a possibility there is a sizeable amount of inventory registered too. Impossible to know for now.
 
Good stuff. One tale of caution. The Norwegian registrations as counted by itanywhere also include cars registered for inventory. This was easy to verify when they still published full VIN numbers. While I would assume most of what they register these days are actually customer cars, there is a possibility there is a sizeable amount of inventory registered too. Impossible to know for now.
There aren't a huge amount of inventory cars for sale on the website at least. Just 15 high spec P90D's, which are most likely cancelled customer cars. Someone on the Norwegian EV forum went into a Tesla store to inquire about a 90D, and walked out with a contract for a P90D with a 18,000 USD discount and pretty much immediate delivery. I think the amount of P90D's for sale bodes well for the P100D sales in the next few months.

Also, the number has reached 699 Teslas! With 305 in August and 67 in July, Norway has broken 1000, with a total of 1071 thus far. I think we'll break 1100 today.
 
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There aren't a huge amount of inventory cars for sale on the website at least.

Sure, but what's on the website is rarely a full view of inventory.

Also, the number has reached 699 Teslas! With 305 in August and 67 in July, Norway has broken 1000, with a total of 1071 thus far. I think we'll break 1100 today.

The big question, which we will probably learn next monday, is whether the rest of Europe is on the same schedule to deliver all of the Model X backlog this month as well.
 
There aren't a huge amount of inventory cars for sale on the website at least. Just 15 high spec P90D's, which are most likely cancelled customer cars. Someone on the Norwegian EV forum went into a Tesla store to inquire about a 90D, and walked out with a contract for a P90D with a 18,000 USD discount and pretty much immediate delivery. I think the amount of P90D's for sale bodes well for the P100D sales in the next few months.

Also, the number has reached 699 Teslas! With 305 in August and 67 in July, Norway has broken 1000, with a total of 1071 thus far. I think we'll break 1100 today.

I think when they added nearly 500 the other day (MS in USA) and quickly removed 300+ soon after - that they were not all sold "immediately" but rather just kept off the web site and back to the "quiet list" again. I think it was a sort of teaser to see what the fish would do - would they jump into boats? There was a good amount but maybe too much to deliver in Q3 logistically. I'll report back if I see some pop up on the web again after Q3 is over. I believe the web will fill with inventory in Europe after 10/1.