The first and second month of a quarter still account for roughly 25% of the sales each. That makes them important as well. Sweden reported 87 cars (up from 75 last quarter and 24 last year) while Austria reported 81 cars (up from 61 last quarter and 15 last year). We may end up this month somewhere between 1300 and 1500 which I think is very respectable. But enough to do better than the first quarter? That is indeed a tall order so I would bet no. Not a problem anyway : there is only one thing that matters stock price wise : production cars rolling of the line in July. And regardless, 5000 cars this quarter in Europe is more than enough to reach guidance of 22k overall.
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Update of European registration numbers coming in for May:
6 countries reported so far representing 1558 out of 2556 cars in Jan/Feb had 1508 registrations in Apr/May,
so I´d say we´re on track here. I am betting against you, @schonelucht
!
Germany reported 519 in Apr/May vs 353 in Jan/Feb.
6 countries reported so far representing 1558 out of 2556 cars in Jan/Feb had 1508 registrations in Apr/May,
so I´d say we´re on track here. I am betting against you, @schonelucht
!Germany reported 519 in Apr/May vs 353 in Jan/Feb
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@hobbes the bet is on. If Tesla delivers more this quarter than last quarter, I will wire 100 EUR to an (official) charity of your choosing with a European bank account for donations. Let me know here or in PM which one. But remember, as @bonaire says : 3rd month is critical
(spoiler, Norway is off to an incredible start for June, so I may well have to pony up on this bet)
(spoiler, Norway is off to an incredible start for June, so I may well have to pony up on this bet)
If the VINs from Norway are any indication my guess is this is still a fallout from removing the free Supercharging.
Deal. I´ll do the same.
Regarding Norway, it was not as strong as most other countries in May, so my guess/hope is that the countries still to report will follow the general trend which might lead to a final score better than the extrapolation I just made.
@hobbes the bet is on. If Tesla delivers more this quarter than last quarter, I will wire 100 EUR to an (official) charity of your choosing with a European bank account for donations. Let me know here or in PM which one. But remember, as @bonaire says : 3rd month is critical
(spoiler, Norway is off to an incredible start for June, so I may well have to pony up on this bet)
Regarding Norway, it was not as strong as most other countries in May, so my guess/hope is that the countries still to report will follow the general trend which might lead to a final score better than the extrapolation I just made.
Yeah, feels like that. I think it comes from more people owning Teslas over time leading to more people getting in touch with the cars leading to a virtuous cycle. Awareness has increased so much over the last years. I think Model 3 presentation and record-breaking reservations have done a lot for that, too. Just the other day I was out cycling with a friend and we were passed by a Tesla, I asked him if he recognized the car and he even knew it was a Model S.
I think Germans just really care about the free Supercharging. We might travel a bit longer distances than in some other Europeans countries as well as use a bit more energy on the Autobahn and both our gas as well as electricity prices are rather high.
Here is for example a Model X that was ordered 15. January, but just now delivered (ok that was Austria, but should be similar timelines for German cars).
Model X Bestellungen und Liefertermine • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde
Here is for example a Model X that was ordered 15. January, but just now delivered (ok that was Austria, but should be similar timelines for German cars).
Model X Bestellungen und Liefertermine • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde
SebastianR
Active Member
I would agree that Germans really like free Supercharging. I sometimes feel that we happily incur some costs to get something for free. There is even a saying where I'm from which is "lieber den Magen verrenkt als dem Wirt was geschenkt" - which liberally translates to "I rather feel sick after overeating then to leave anything on the table and thus let the restaurant profit".
However, besides that - more stingy - motivator, I also do think that more and more people realise that ICE cars are all dirty. There is not a day without some revelation of emission cheating. And we have very first (very timid) Diesel banning policies in place which also has an impact. I think that Germans typically move slowly and are very conservatively. But once they move, this will be an avalanche...
May data is coming in surprisingly strong. Right now, we are 272 below January + February totals and we still have a few countries about to report.
Switzerland only has data on the brand level so far and it shows 251 "diverse other brands". In the past 4 months, Tesla was 30-60% of that, with January being the - unsurprising - outlier. So staying with a more realistic 40%, I expect 100 cars from there. If all the others pull in similar numbers to February, we should have about 220-250 in total still to be reported. We will know for sure in a few days, today being a holiday in many of our countries.
Having said that, knowing how unrealistic a repeat of January was and seeing "OK" April numbers, I must admit I did not expect this. I now think we should be within +- 2-3% of the first 2 months of this year, which is stellar performance.
If this were to play out similarly in June and the rest of the world (i know, I know, but stay with me) and Tesla would deliver roughly the same number of cars in Q2 as it did in Q1, it would surely beat it's own estimate and market expectations for H1 2017.
Revealing such positive news around June 3rd, followed by confirmation on Model 3 production start-up a few weeks later, should be a pretty strong catalyst.
Switzerland only has data on the brand level so far and it shows 251 "diverse other brands". In the past 4 months, Tesla was 30-60% of that, with January being the - unsurprising - outlier. So staying with a more realistic 40%, I expect 100 cars from there. If all the others pull in similar numbers to February, we should have about 220-250 in total still to be reported. We will know for sure in a few days, today being a holiday in many of our countries.
Having said that, knowing how unrealistic a repeat of January was and seeing "OK" April numbers, I must admit I did not expect this. I now think we should be within +- 2-3% of the first 2 months of this year, which is stellar performance.
If this were to play out similarly in June and the rest of the world (i know, I know, but stay with me) and Tesla would deliver roughly the same number of cars in Q2 as it did in Q1, it would surely beat it's own estimate and market expectations for H1 2017.
Revealing such positive news around June 3rd, followed by confirmation on Model 3 production start-up a few weeks later, should be a pretty strong catalyst.
Hi. This month Finland has uploaded an incomplete Excel file here. The file has neither YTD or monthly numbers. This was most likely by error as you can guess even looking at the file sizes. We will find out May registrations from the YTD number next month when they upload the correct file but until then we need to use an estimate. Here is my calculation:
March was 18 units in 2016, 26 units in 2017. The increase was 8 units.
April was 1 unit in 2016, 9 units in 2017. The increase was again 8 units.
May was 6 units in 2016. If the increase is 8 units again, May 2017 would be 14 units.
March was 18 units in 2016, 26 units in 2017. The increase was 8 units.
April was 1 unit in 2016, 9 units in 2017. The increase was again 8 units.
May was 6 units in 2016. If the increase is 8 units again, May 2017 would be 14 units.
Yeah, I was kind of hoping they'd realize the mistake and fix it... but thanks, your estimate will have to do for now.
So with that, we only have France left and April + May should come in about 50-75 from January + February.
So we have the Finland file fixed and is shows 18 cars for May. I`ve submitted the data.
For France, our usual site already has the news piece out for May (published today), but for some reason they`ve decided it`s fun putting out charts without numbers... The article itself mentions Model S sales at 63, but X was outside the "top 5", the chart doesn`t have numbers and the detailed statistics file is not published yet. Judging from the size of the Model X column, it should be 40-50 vehicles. I`ll keep checking for the official file...
In any case, Finland is 4 above what @Troy estimated, S is 63 in France, which leaves us at 50 Model X needed in France to hit Q1 numbers. Stay tuned...
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Number five is Ion at 55. Unfortunately the bar for the X is seems a bit lower than that for the Ion, so it may just miss 50. Still, great position going into June for @hobbes. To win the bet Tesla just needs to do as well in June as in March instead of beating it by 200 like it seemed earlier! Looking forward to holding up my end.
Hi. Just a quick reminder: The actual Q1 UK numbers are expected to be released soon, most likely within 6 days. I have checked the file here today and it is not updated yet. These were the last few update dates:
14 Jun 16
08 Sep 16
08 Dec 16
14 Apr 17
By the way, I was looking at the charts in the wiki and I noticed there is a lot of consistency in Model S registrations. The monthly fluctuation is almost the same every year. I thought I would mention this in case people are trying to estimate future registrations. Of course, the Model X is a different story.
14 Jun 16
08 Sep 16
08 Dec 16
14 Apr 17
By the way, I was looking at the charts in the wiki and I noticed there is a lot of consistency in Model S registrations. The monthly fluctuation is almost the same every year. I thought I would mention this in case people are trying to estimate future registrations. Of course, the Model X is a different story.
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Phew! I was somehow under impression we made the bet for just the first two month of the quarter... Even wrote an Email to the Finland registrations lady which she promptly replied to and said sorry for the delay
. This gives me some more time to catch up with Q1.Phew! I was somehow under impression we made the bet for just the first two month of the quarter... Even wrote an Email to the Finland registrations lady which she promptly replied to and said sorry for the delay
Haaa. I can see how you got that impression. I agree the original wording was ambiguous. It honestly didn't cross my mind earlier but rereading some of the comments since, seems like more people took it as pertaining to only the two first months. My bad for not being clearer. Send me your charity and I will already donate 50 EUR, leaving the original bet in place for 3 months (should you so desire). With the recent share price run-up, I can spare the money
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