EU Market Situation and Outlook

[hobbes]

Haaa. I can see how you got that impression. I agree the original wording was ambiguous. It honestly didn't cross my mind earlier but rereading some of the comments since, seems like more people took it as pertaining to only the two first months. My bad for not being clearer. Send me your charity and I will already donate 50 EUR, leaving the original bet in place for 3 months (should you so desire). With the recent share price run-up, I can spare the money

Well you didn´t lose the bet yet, even for the Apr-May period (looks like you´re likely going to win that part). But let´s call it a tie as it will within 1% of last quarter and both pay 50 EUR. My charity is Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International What´s yours?

The bet for the whole quarter stays in place.

 

[schonelucht]

Well you didn´t lose the bet yet, even for the Apr-May period (looks like you´re likely going to win that part). But let´s call it a tie as it will within 1% of last quarter and both pay 50 EUR. My charity is Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International What´s yours?

The bet for the whole quarter stays in place.

Excellent choice! I wired 50 EUR in your name towards their branch in the Netherlands per the instructions on their website under 'Donate'.

My charity is any that works towards organ donation (both preventive care or active). For example in the Netherlands Nierstichting (Kidney foundation) Geef Fabian zijn vrijheid terug Website is in Dutch, their IBAN is in the middle of the page. If you don't get through the Dutch language, then just donate to an equivalent organization in Germany.

 

[hobbes]

Excellent choice! I wired 50 EUR in your name towards their branch in the Netherlands per the instructions on their website under 'Donate'.

My charity is any that works towards organ donation (both preventive care or active). For example in the Netherlands Nierstichting (Kidney foundation) Geef Fabian zijn vrijheid terug Website is in Dutch, their IBAN is in the middle of the page. If you don't get through the Dutch language, then just donate to an equivalent organization in Germany.

Done.

 

[Bgarret]

Well you didn´t lose the bet yet, even for the Apr-May period (looks like you´re likely going to win that part). But let´s call it a tie as it will within 1% of last quarter and both pay 50 EUR. My charity is Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International What´s yours?

The bet for the whole quarter stays in place.

Gentleman. Thanks for all your contributions and your exceedingly gentlemanly bet. Just sent $50 to Doctors without Borders in support of your efforts.

Cheers.

 

[mrdoubleb]

OK ladies and gentlemen, I think I've managed to raise crazy to a whole new level..

The EV site that published the France data can be pretty sloppy (I already had to ask for a fix to their charts once in the past). As I said yesterday, this time they have omitted the numbers from their EV chart in their news article. They usually label the columns on the charts and did so for hybrids, but not for EVs. The actual text only mentions Model S (63 cars) and for X you can only guess based on the size of the bar in the chart... Well, today they have posted the official PR in the section we usually pull the data from and that one is just a transcript of the article (and completely omits the charts). I've already contacted them and asked for the Model X data, but there is no guarantee they'll do anything.

So we needed an estimate and I ended up downloading a screen measurement app, where i selected the Model S bar, which the app set as the baseline of 1cm and appropriated the rest of my measurements to it. I measured the Model X bar at 64mm which calculates to roughly 40.32 cars. As a "control group" I took a measurement of the Peugeot Ion, which we know is 55 cars. The bar came in at 85mm which equates to 53.55 cars. So I ended up going with 41 for Model X to compensate a bit.

I know, this is faaaar from perfect and I way overdid it (NERD), but for now, unless anyone has a better idea, this should work.

Probably can't make a call on your little bet though.

Paging Dr. @hobbes or Dr. @Troy to validate.

 

[hobbes]

OK ladies and gentlemen, I think I've managed to raise crazy to a whole new level..

The EV site that published the France data can be pretty sloppy (I already had to ask for a fix to their charts once in the past). As I said yesterday, this time they have omitted the numbers from their EV chart in their news article. They usually label the columns on the charts and did so for hybrids, but not for EVs. The actual text only mentions Model S (63 cars) and for X you can only guess based on the size of the bar in the chart... Well, today they have posted the official PR in the section we usually pull the data from and that one is just a transcript of the article (and completely omits the charts). I've already contacted them and asked for the Model X data, but there is no guarantee they'll do anything.

So we needed an estimate and I ended up downloading a screen measurement app, where i selected the Model S bar, which the app set as the baseline of 1cm and appropriated the rest of my measurements to it. I measured the Model X bar at 64mm which calculates to roughly 40.32 cars. As a "control group" I took a measurement of the Peugeot Ion, which we know is 55 cars. The bar came in at 85mm which equates to 53.55 cars. So I ended up going with 41 for Model X to compensate a bit.

I know, this is faaaar from perfect and I way overdid it (NERD), but for now, unless anyone has a better idea, this should work.

Probably can't make a call on your little bet though.

Paging Dr. @hobbes or Dr. @Troy to validate.

Good work! Being perfectionist, I had to resubmit the X number as an estimate though . So we still need someone to validate it.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Good work! Being perfectionist, I had to resubmit the X number as an estimate though . So we still need someone to validate it.

well, i guess unless someone else wants to spend their Friday night pixel measuring grainy charts to confirm i did it right... i can validate the results.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Here are the latest official UK numbers:

Q1 2017 UK registrations:
Model S: 786 units
Model X: 627 units
Total: 1,413 units

Our estimate was 1,441 units which is 98% accurate. That's not too bad.

Last year in Q1, 762 Model S and 0 Model X were registered in the UK. In other words, Model S registrations have increased only by 3% but the addition of the Model X meant 85% increase in Tesla registrations.

Out of the 786 Model S registered, 669 were AWD. That's 85%. It shows that RWD is not such a popular choice. I wouldn't be surprised if one day Tesla discontinues the RWD Model S completely. It is already gone for the 100 kWh Model S and it never existed for the Model X.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/619163/veh0160.ods
If you can't open .ods files and you want to copy the tabular data, you can open this page and scroll down.

 

[hobbes]

Update on Norway registrations: Picking up, today 38 new cars, if we keep going at that pace for the last 5 days of June that would be another 190 cars on top of 586 already registered for this month leading to 776 which compares to 744 in March. If this trend is representative for other countries, Tesla should make Q2 guidance.

It´s interesting to note that there have been 432 Xs vs. 164 Ss this month (factor 2.6) while there were 446 Xs vs 298 Ss in March (factor 1.5). One possible interpretation is that Model 3 has more of an impact on S sales being more similar while the X is in its own segment. On the positive side good that increased X sales seem to make up for this osbourning.

Tesla Registration Stats

 

[schonelucht]

Our bet is really going to go down the wire! Crossing my fingers.

 

[Spidy]

I think many people also really wanted the 100kWh battery with the Model X since you really benefit from it with the higher consumption and when towing.

On the other hand I wonder if many of the 90kWh batteries are Inventory cars, since there aren't any of those left in Norway and some people maybe don't want the expensive 100kWh one, but more than 75kWh and this was basically the last chance. I'm not sure how many were available, but the 46xxx VIN range would fit Model X Inventory available in other European countries.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Update on Norway registrations: Picking up, today 38 new cars, if we keep going at that pace for the last 5 days of June that would be another 190 cars on top of 586 already registered for this month leading to 776 which compares to 744 in March. If this trend is representative for other countries, Tesla should make Q2 guidance.

It´s interesting to note that there have been 432 Xs vs. 164 Ss this month (factor 2.6) while there were 446 Xs vs 298 Ss in March (factor 1.5). One possible interpretation is that Model 3 has more of an impact on S sales being more similar while the X is in its own segment. On the positive side good that increased X sales seem to make up for this osbourning.

Tesla Registration Stats

Haha. Kinda made a long 3 part post in the investors general discussion thread without reading your post. Came to the same conclusion after spending some time with the Norway daily data.

Thought I may have been a little too optimistic about closing the gap with X deliveries, but I see we both came to the same conclusion, so maybe I am not crazy?

 

[geneclean55]

Update on Norway registrations: Picking up, today 38 new cars, if we keep going at that pace for the last 5 days of June that would be another 190 cars on top of 586 already registered for this month leading to 776 which compares to 744 in March. If this trend is representative for other countries, Tesla should make Q2 guidance.

It´s interesting to note that there have been 432 Xs vs. 164 Ss this month (factor 2.6) while there were 446 Xs vs 298 Ss in March (factor 1.5). One possible interpretation is that Model 3 has more of an impact on S sales being more similar while the X is in its own segment. On the positive side good that increased X sales seem to make up for this osbourning.

Tesla Registration Stats

Its almost as if Tesla knew in advance

 

[hobbes]

Haha. Kinda made a long 3 part post in the investors general discussion thread without reading your post. Came to the same conclusion after spending some time with the Norway daily data.

Thought I may have been a little too optimistic about closing the gap with X deliveries, but I see we both came to the same conclusion, so maybe I am not crazy?

I see another explanation that I don´t want to discuss further though .

 

[hobbes]

4 days to go, 89 cars missing in Norway registrations to hit March! 31 today, so looks good.

However, a total of 919 would be needed in June for Q2 to match Q1, so 919-655=236 to go. Unlikely, but who knows... But the other European countries were stronger than Norway so far this quarter, so no worries.

 

[mrdoubleb]

4 days to go, 89 cars missing in Norway registrations to hit March! 31 today, so looks good.

However, a total of 919 would be needed in June for Q2 to match Q1, so 919-655=236 to go. Unlikely, but who knows... But the other European countries were stronger than Norway so far this quarter, so no worries.

Yeah, just ran the numbers as well. I went with the itanywhere daily numbers, so may be a bit off from what you calculated (or I made an error) but the end result is the same.
In Q1 there were 65 workdays in Norway - and we have 65 days of data. However in Q2 there are only 58, but we will likely have 59 days of data as they kept delivering last Saturday. Today we had day 55, so very unlikely we would catch up, especially that today wasn't anything special in registration numbers.
So compared to day 55 of Q1 we are 125 ahead. But we will have 6 days less.

PS: yes, I should get a life.

 

[Cobos]

Considering how much trouble I have getting ahold of the sales people at Tesla for my CPO purchase this week and last I get the distinct feeling it is a massive end of quarter rush here in Norway. And the fact that the sales people say directly that everything is crazy now adds to the feel that they are working. What that actually means for numbers, I've no idea?

Cobos

 

[schonelucht]

Dutch media are reporting that Maersk has troubles with a ransomware attack. Unfortunately APM (their container handler in the Port of Rotterdam), presumably responsible for offloading Teslas, is also hit.

 

[geneclean55]

Dutch media are reporting that Maersk has troubles with a ransomware attack. Unfortunately APM (their container handler in the Port of Rotterdam), presumably responsible for offloading Teslas, is also hit.

Unfortunate news.
Bit late to disrupt q2 I would imagine?

 

[geneclean55]

C'mon squeeze out one more X registration today Norway.... 500