EU Market Situation and Outlook

[sweter]

1. P3D highest priority. We haven't seen any confirmation (I think?) about Model 3's Tilburg assembly situation, but if there's any ramp up there that needs to be financed. Even if there is a subsidy expiring in NL, then other countries can probably even this out anyway.
2. LR AWD second priority. Available for order from day 1, but possibly longer delivery times.
3. MR orders opening at the end of Q2.

I would really really really love it if they brought back LR RWD as that's the one I've been aiming for... But I don't have my hopes too high.

Regarding different offers in different countries, aren't they offering a cheaper base Model S (sub 60k EUR) in Germany for exactly the purpose of enabling incentives? Not sure how it sells and affects production though, haven't seen it discussed anywhere.

I also wonder if the roll out will just be open gates for everyone or reservationists first or even reservationists current owners first. Or even based on countries first (Norway would go first due to demand + skipping Tilburg).

reminder: Tesla builds what people order.

People can only order what Tesla offers, though.

 

[hobbes]

I made a poll for this here: Poll: Which versions of Model 3 do you expect Tesla in Europe at first?

 

[schonelucht]

The tweet also says that the incentives for EVs drop in January 2019 (which I knew, this is why Teslas have been selling like crazy in NL lately) but only for cars above 50,000 EUR (which I didn´t know).

Not really, the benefit is capped to 50 000k. That means a 55 000k Model 3 will still have the incentive on 95% of its value. Therefore there is no pressing need for Tesla to stay under the 50k.

Also, Tesla will not assemble the Model 3 in Tilburg but will ship complete cars through roll-on/roll-off via Zeebrugge, Belgium. Adjust your prices accordingly : US price, converted in euro + 10% import tax + 20% (or so) VAT + 2000 (or so) shipping costs.

 

[sweter]

Also, Tesla will not assemble the Model 3 in Tilburg but will ship complete cars through roll-on/roll-off via Zeebrugge, Belgium. Adjust your prices accordingly : US price, converted in euro + 10% import tax + 20% (or so) VAT + 2000 (or so) shipping costs.

Where did you get this info?

 

[hobbes]

Not really, the benefit is capped to 50 000k. That means a 55 000k Model 3 will still have the incentive on 95% of its value. Therefore there is no pressing need for Tesla to stay under the 50k.

Also, Tesla will not assemble the Model 3 in Tilburg but will ship complete cars through roll-on/roll-off via Zeebrugge, Belgium. Adjust your prices accordingly : US price, converted in euro + 10% import tax + 20% (or so) VAT + 2000 (or so) shipping costs.

That additional price increase would be a major bummer. I read about the roll on/roll off a short while back, too (Elon tweet?). I was thinking about the same problem (additional import tax for complete cars) but when I googled roll on/roll off that system is not for vehicles, but also for other freight (as for example vehicle parts) that can be loaded/unloaded more quickly in those ships. So still a chance that they´ll do some final assembly in Europe to avoid the taxes (unless you have more info on that I don´t have).

EDIT: found the tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[hobbes]

Also, Tesla will not assemble the Model 3 in Tilburg but will ship complete cars through roll-on/roll-off via Zeebrugge, Belgium. Adjust your prices accordingly : US price, converted in euro + 10% import tax + 20% (or so) VAT + 2000 (or so) shipping costs.

Regarding price: My current price estimation method was to take the price ratio of a Model S in US and Europe and apply that to Model 3 price in US. So this would increase by 10% import tax if the cars were imported complete, right?

 

[schonelucht]

Where did you get this info?

They had positions open for roll on/roll off specialists at Zeebrugge a few weeks ago.

 

[schonelucht]

Regarding price: My current price estimation method was to take the price ratio of a Model S in US and Europe and apply that to Model 3 price in US. So this would increase by 10% import tax if the cars were imported complete, right?

Yes, but that is partially offset by cheaper shipping and no capex (depreciation) + additional labour in Tilburg.

 

[hobbes]

They had positions open for roll on/roll off specialists at Zeebrugge a few weeks ago.

From those job descriptions, did it sound like it was for complete vehicles? Would make sense really. They´d also not have to expand Tilburg assembly so much then.

On the other hand doing ro-ro with the car in parts would save some time, too, and in addition save the 10% tax...

 

[schonelucht]

From those job descriptions, did it sound like it was for complete vehicles? Would make sense really. They´d also not have to expand Tilburg assembly so much then.

I am not a specifialist but roro by definition means the car is complete/in driveable condition, no?

 

[hobbes]

I am not a specifialist but roro by definition means the car is complete/in driveable condition, no?

Technically not necessarily, as I wrote above:

...when I googled roll on/roll off that system is not only for vehicles, but also for other freight (as for example vehicle parts) that can be loaded/unloaded more quickly in those ships.

Just wanted to link you the wikipedia page in English, but there it sounded more like it would be just cars or trains after all. So I agree it is very likely they´ll just drive the cars into the ship. I think they have been doing this with cars destined for China, too (a while ago there were pictures of a harbour with a parking lot full of Teslas).

What about Norway actually? I think there have been the same pics of parking lots at arrival. Thinking about it, I guess Europe has been the only over-seas place where did the final assembly (and consequently no ro-ro) due to the tax .

 

[Steve m]

Channeling my inner anti Antwon Wahlman....

Tesla's bev competition in Norway has completely collapsed in December as Tesla captures 97% of the bev marketshare. While Jaguar sales drop to zero.

 

[sweter]

A Model 3 shipment has been spotted in Antwerp on Friday evening. Posted on TMC: Model 3 draadje. Probably being transported from Zeebrugge (Belgium) to Rotterdam (The Netherlands).

The hype is real.

 

[hobbes]

A Model 3 shipment has been spotted in Antwerp on Friday evening. Posted on TMC: Model 3 draadje. Probably being transported from Zeebrugge (Belgium) to Rotterdam (The Netherlands).

The hype is real.

Most likely additional showroom cars IMHO. There will more locations with Model 3s later in the year according to Tesla: Events | Tesla Deutschland

 

[hobbes]

There are rumours on the German forum that Norway and possibly other European countries will be able to configure Model 3 tomorrow . Does anyone have more info from the other national forums?!

After all this time - don´t know if I´m ready... Haven´t finally decided on a color yet... But you can still change that for a while, right?!

 

[Model 3]

There are rumours on the German forum that Norway and possibly other European countries will be able to configure Model 3 tomorrow . Does anyone have more info from the other national forums?!

There was one rumor out (on Friday) in the Norwegian forum that the configurations should open up on Saturday (1th Dec). My replay to that rumor was they they would not send out configuration email in the weekend, so if they should open it up from the 1th Dec, no-one would get the email until Monday. That is all I have head about this.

 

[sweter]

Most likely additional showroom cars IMHO. There will more locations with Model 3s later in the year according to Tesla: Events | Tesla Deutschland

Some are speculating that they are actually going to NCAP. But who knows, really?

 

[hobbes]

SC CCS retrofit for M3 starting in Dec!

Hype is real! CCS Model 3 being tested in NL! : teslamotors

Edit: Also Air susp. Supposedly confirmed for Europe!!

 

[sweter]

Just as I thought, UK also gets viewings! Although I thought that's gonna be in January.

Events | Tesla UK

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Sweden November 2018