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EU Market Situation and Outlook

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Mar 25, 2014.

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  1. Alfred

    Alfred Supporting Member

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    Yes - also in Switzerland. Invoice numbering for early reservations holders may be following the dates of these reservations - as it did in my case. I have not seen any local statistic on these numbers.
     
  2. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    I think it is due to extremely bad timing. The configurator opened on the Dec 21, the start of the Christmas holidays in Germany. A huge number of people start their holidays by flying/driving abroad. All the others (at least those with families) are occupied with the pre-Christmas preparations.

    Plus, most people I know don't rush a purchase as expensive as a car. Even I was hesitant at first, once I was invited to configure - even though I had waited two and a half years for this moment. You simply don't fork out 60K+ Euro without giving it some thought first.
    In the end, the most difficult decision for us actually was the colour. ;)
     
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  3. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Also, the Model 3 is still not in the list for the EV incentive; the situation with upgrade of Superchargers to CCS is a bit uncertain, you can´t be sure how many SCs will be compatible with the Model 3 in the beginning. And, last but not least, nobody understands why Tesla opened German configurator so late compated to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland etc. Then, no test drives yet, only expensive versions (which was expected for us Tesla insiders but probably not so much for the average reservation holder).

    But I agree, a bit underwhelming numbers.
     
  4. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    I am sure this is just a matter of time. I mean, Tesla already factored in their part of the deal in the form of the 2K Euro rebate. They certainly wouldn't have done this if they thought they wouldn't be put on the list. And anyway, proper paperwork provided, there is no reason why the Model 3 shouldn't be eligable. Its net base price is far below the limit of 60K Euro.
     
  5. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    I agree - however while that is obvious to us, it isn´t to every reservation holder. And unlike us, most probably don´t feel the urge to be among the first to have Model 3, so they wait until stuff like that is sorted out.
     
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  6. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    The best advertising for the model 3 is a model 3. There is a going to be significant second wave of orders once the first cars are actually on the European roads.
     
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  7. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    Quite likely. We mustn't forget that we here are quite the early adopter bunch among German Model 3 reservation holders. :)
     
  8. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    So I am asking this very quietly as I do not want to add to the FUD... but what do you guys think about possible homologation issues? I have seen some chatter, but really feels like a final straw shorts are clinging to. The "rumor" according to them is that the Model 3 will not be certified as 1, the single center screen design is too dangerous/distracting for EU regulations and 2, the rear doors need a mechanical emergency opener as well.

    The first one seems highly unlikely to me. First, there have been plenty of cars in the past with a central instrument cluster design (i have driven at least 3) and if it is about operating everything from that screen, the Model S and X have the same design.

    The second one may be plausible, but I do not know the regulation. However, one would think it would not be too difficult to replicate the solution used at the front doors.

    Also, AFAIK they only need 1 of the 27 countries to certify for compliance throughout the EU. So even if, say (no offense) the German authorities would be dragging their feet, others may be more lenient.
     
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  9. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    Correct but many or most of those 27 countries do *not* have institutions that could certify the car on their own inspection.
    Most of them just copy and stamp foreign EU certification.
     
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  10. Dreadnought

    Dreadnought Member

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    You got me going for a second there. What speaks against those theories regarding center screen and door locks being show-stoppers are the individually certified early imports. There is the recent sighting at a CCS charger in the Netherlands and at least one vehicle owned by nextmove. Another one in Switzerland doesn't count as not EU but these are just the ones from the top of my head. Nextmove had to change the cooling agent to get the approval, headlights and other components certified and would certainly not have gotten the blessings if there had been major safety concerns.

    Video is in German. Homologation talk starts at about 4:40.

     
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  11. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Thanks! Fair point. I know they have a couple M3s imported from the US. The question is if there are different rules for one-off, individual imports with limited volume vs. mass market imports by the manufacturer. But I agree, serious safety concerns would be a no go in any case. As for the lights and AC coolant, this was extremely obvious/well known to Tesla the S and the X, so there is no way they did not prepare for that.
     
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  12. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    I don't believe that's an issue. (see posts above). Also: Tesla knows about these things. For instance the Model X had cameras instead of mirrors in early prototypes and has now mirrors to avoid homologation issues. So they clearly have a clue how to deal with that kind of stuff...

    On the numbers and the orders etc. Here is my Bull view on this issue: why did they not open all reservations at the same time? I mean they promised to everyone that pre-ordered that if they click "order" by 31-Dec they will get their car in Feb/Mar?!?

    To me the answer is quite obvious: instead of saying "we will only allow the first x-tausend folks to order, they just open market by market with a very limited offering. By now they should be pretty good in gauging how many reservations will order after how much time. So by opening a market shortly before the deadline they know the will get fewer actual orders by the deadline and thus can keep their word while managing order volume a bit. It is not that there is no demand, but I don't know many folks that decide on the final configuration of a new car in mere hours.

    I tell you what would have worried me a bit more: if all orders had opened for every country in early December and then on December 15th if we had had the chance to order the MR without AWD. Now, that didn't happen.

    I call what Tesla is doing "horizontal slicing" - if you think of a grid of reservations with the reservation date on the x-axis and the desired configuration on the y-axis, Tesla is serving the high-margin / high trim markets first (work horizontally through the reservations) rather than going full-spectrum by reservation date (working vertically/chronologically). We will soon see that folks in Europe can walk up to any Tesla Store, put in an order for a Performance Model 3 and have their car in about 2 months. Tesla should never(!) lose a sale of a Performance model since the delivery time is too long. Now on the "lesser" trims Tesla will manage production load and demand by carefully releasing/withholding different trims/configurations from different markets as they see fit to balance production/demand.

    (BTW: Watch for shorts complaining about this tactic: soon we will hear stories like this "Demand would have cratered already had it not been for Tesla introducing the MR, SR, non-PUP, new color, different interior, different wheels - whatever...")
     
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  13. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I do not believe ordering would have been opened if there were any real homologation issues. They're probably retooling the production lines as we speak, and for all their communications failures, they do have enough sense to have talked to the regulators *before* actually retooling the production lines. It's not like this is new for them; they went through it with the S and X and Roadster.
     
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  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Norway, and Switzerland aren't EU, but along with the Netherlands were already significant markets for the S and X, so opening first in those countries makes sense.
     
  15. guidooo

    guidooo Supporting Member

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    #3355 guidooo, Dec 24, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2018
    Regarding homologation:

    Found on twitter sometime ago a picture of a model 3 with a dutch license plate. DutMv7gWsAAjzhO.jpg:large.jpeg
    Christoph Maria on Twitter
    A query of the license plate in the data base revealed it does not have type approval at this moment, so it's most likely approved as individual car. Database revealed further that 7 model 3's do have a dutch license plate and approved for the road individually. Latest license plate given 12/22/2018. So no type approval yet.
    tesla model 3 kenteken gegevens - RDWdata.nl

    I'm not the expert, but did quick google search what the difference is between type approval/individual approval.
    Document is in dutch, but on page 4 is (freely translated) stated:
    That there is a difference between type approval and individual approval because an individual approved vehicle does not have to meet all the requirements. And that that is because individual approved vehicles don't have to be subject to destructive testing, like crashtests, which implies they cannot be judged on certain requirements.

    It's a summary and not the exact text like in law and it's in dutch. But others are naturally free to google as well :). Until convinced otherwise, i'm just assuming the model 3 is awaiting crashtesting (results).
    https://www.swov.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/gearchiveerde-factsheet/nl/factsheet_voertuigregelgeving_gearchiveerd.pdf

    Edit: although we cannot be 100% sure no other modifications have been done for the individual approval.
     
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  16. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  17. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    So 25k S+X in Europe, maybe 60k US and 15k in China + other countries?
     
  18. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29, M3P 80k

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  19. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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  20. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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