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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Mar 25, 2014.
There are two tones of blue, dark and light. Tesla and Renault are dark, others are light?
Actually to me those blues look the same, I think it is more an issue of bold font versus regular.
I think long range BEVs are bold or darker font
EV Sales: Short Range / Long Range
LEAF has two more km range than Zoe per NEDC.
Whatever. I'd still like to know why they're different from e.g. the Leaf.
My best guess:The bolded ones do 3 phase AC charging, the others don't with the exception of the i3. Which did single phase AC charging in it's early years, but was later upgraded to 3 phase charging on it's newer models as battery size grew.
The Zoe has a 40 kWh battery since 2016 with 370 WLTP range, the 2018 Leaf has 270km range. Bold could be "long range" EVs.
Looks like we got about 10k orders in EU.
Model 3 seit 21.12.2018 in Deutschland bestellbar • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde
The Dutch number must be a huge understatement. Most Model 3's will be sold through fleet sales (like 90% easily). One invoice may be tens or even hundreds of cars.
I feel like this is going to be the new VIN counting - with similar results. I would be very disappointed if we only had 10k orders from Europe - even with the late opening of the config screen and the holidays. I hope Tesla reveals some numbers in the Q4 letter.
If we start seeing the Mid Range being offered in January or February, or if we get reports of Tesla calling/pushing reservation holders, that may signal this is true. Otherwise, I would expect similar or higher numbers than the US. This car should be super popular in Europe. Norway alone should be 10k or more, given that they sell ~5k of the much more expensive S/X every quarter there.
Unlike the VINs that provide a hard upper limit and a lot of room for interpretation, everything so far points to sequential invoice numbers.
I, too, was expecting higher numbers, considering the long wait here in Europe. And while I would love to see an avalanche of orders from the shareholder point of view, I trust the invoice counts and see a couple of reasons why not everyone is pulling the trigger - yet.
Some are just holding back for a few days. They're away for skiing or want to get their financing worked out first or simply haven't decided on color or other options. This should be a relatively small number after Dec 31St.
Then, there's a group of people who are waiting for the end of their current lease or for other reasons don't want a delivery potentially as soon as six weeks from now.
The majority is waiting for a not-yet-available option, mainly smaller battery but also features where availability is completely unclear, like tow hitch and air suspension.
How does this translate to orders?
Hard to predict but another 5..8k doesn't seem to be out of reach between now and first half of February. At the announced 3k per week shipping rate for Europe, this would translate to 6 weeks (assuming 18k total) worth of EU-reserved production. Considering five to six weeks total shipping time, that's roughly the allocated time frame (and thus volume) for the initial EU batch anyway.
Even if total number of orders remains below that threshold, it still depends on domestic demand whether they pull MR or other options forward. If local demand remains at a level north of 3k/wk, we won't see any lower ASP configuration options in Europe before March IMHO.
So my fears have turned out correct. Tesla doesn't consider Poland, Czechia and many other European countries as "continental Europe" and didn't open orders for us. The phone number for customer support for "Other Europe" is bogus as I probably spent around 20h spread over the last 2 weeks waiting for somebody to pick it up.
My delivery estimator still claims "Early 2019" delivery, but I don't expect it until Q3 at least based on latest wording on Model 3 page for "Other Europe".
Maybe try to order it in Germany and just import it yourself?
Yea, I’m working on that with a friend from The Netherlands. I can’t buy myself in any country without an address there, I think.
Why not? EU rules are meant to prevent any internal barriers to trade. You are free to acquire services from Tesla Netherlands and they can't deny them based on your address (as long as you are within the EU obviously) See the EU regulations on the subject
Tesla is breaching EU regulations openly and will continue to do so unless someone with standing puts a stop to it. Just call Tesla Netherlands on Monday and demand they register your order : it's your right as an EU citizen. If they refuse, contact your local EU representative, your local consumer organisation and have a lawyer write a formal request on your behalf to register a purchase with them.
EV Sales: Czech Republic December 2018
In Czechia Tesla has 8% of the PEV market.
Which would be a very good number for a conventional premium brand in the ICE market. This bodes well for standard range Model 3 when Czechs are able to order.
It looks like SuC conversion in Europe accelerates. According to this German Facebook user (video) there are three teams driving through Germany and updating stalls to CCS.
Using Google Translate:
Three teams drive through GERMANY and convert all SuC locations for the Model 3. The conversion of the power supply from type 2 to CCS is via relays
EV Sales: Norway December 2018
It's not impossible for the Model 3 to capture somewhere between 15 and 20% of the overall(!) car market in Norway in 2019, especially if (and when) the short range becomes available for Norwegian buyers.
There is a report in Polish newspapers that Tesla registered companies in Poland and Czechia and is in final stages of preparation to launch in these two markets. It has a confirmation quote from Even Sandvold from Tesla PR office in Oslo (?).
They will start with service centers but they will also handle sales and online orders will also be enabled.
Source: Tesla zaparkuje w Polsce. Otworzy serwis samochodowy
Does anyone know / remember how long it took from 1st reports (e.g. company registration) to actual openings when Tesla was entering other markets? It's probably no indicator as every market is slightly different, but just curious.