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EU Market Situation and Outlook

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Mar 25, 2014.

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  1. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    Why would you say that when the quarter is barely more than a month old? That's way too early. Tesla gave the 90-100k guidance at the end of April, when they knew how many cars they had already delivered in the first weeks of the quarter and when they probably had a good insight about the number of cars in transport and firm orders for deliveries in Europe and maybe China through June. It's unlikely they just picked a random number.
     
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  2. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Morning Cornelia is en route once more. Destination not yet disclosed, but it's northbound so likely Bremerhaven or any of the Norwegian destinations.
     
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  3. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    #3483 RobStark, May 30, 2019
    Last edited: May 30, 2019
    [​IMG]

    EV Sales: Europe April 2019


    Hard to believe neither Model S nor Model X breaches the 2100 sales threshold to be in the top 20, Model S with 2005 sales and Model X with 1858.
     
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  4. LN1_Casey

    LN1_Casey Member

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    My guess is that the model S and X are just very large cars. I live in Greece, and a majority of these roads are tiny. I've traveled to Italy, and a lot of the roads I saw while there were also small. Germany, from what I saw, was decent (but then fighting the German native car market). Not only is it just driving the car, but parking as well.

    So that could be a large factor. The Model 3 is smaller, and better fit to the roads. And a lot cheaper, since the 24% VAT would be murder on a 100k car.
     
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  5. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    I think this was to be expected. Until the arrival of the Model 3, the Model S and X were the only real long-range BEVs available and many people were willing to stretch in order to be able to afford one, even if those models were both too expensive really as well as far too large for what most people need in everyday driving (and parking) over here.

    Now the Model 3 offers comparable range plus Tesla tech at much more affordable prices and in a "European-road-friendly" package.
    I don't think Model S or X sales will pick up again over here, at least not until some significant refresh arrives. And even then sales numbers will remain low because the oversized nature of these cars stays the same and once it arrives the Model Y will satisfy the needs of most buyers who look for an SUV-type Tesla.
     
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  6. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Another headwind for EU sales is the end of supercharging as a unique selling point. Ionity just opened its 100th station across Europa and Fastned is up to 98. A number of smaller networks are also expanding.
     
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  7. NicoV

    NicoV Active Member

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    Well, in Belgium Ionity has 12 chargers on 3 sites. Tesla has 138 chargers on 13 sites. Headwind yes, but in the opposite direction, for the non-Tesla drivers.
     
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  8. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

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    Why is this a head wind for Tesla?
     
  9. FinFan

    FinFan Member

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    This quarters cars started arriving in Norvay today, I think. 52 Model 3's registered today already. Fun to see how high the tally ends up this quarter.. And interesting if Tesla starts unraveling the wave format a little.
     
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  10. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Tesla started confirming the first Model 3 SR deliveries in the Netherlands from next week on. Meaning Grand Dahlia carried SRs.
     
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  11. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  12. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Something that catches my eye about this chart is how the other 4 models are all hatchbacks. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Y comes to market. I suppose it'll be a lot more expensive than many other hatchbacks, but still...
     
  13. sixela

    sixela Active Member

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    Almost all cars in Europe are hatchbacks/CUV/SUVs, except the Tesla S and 3. All my former cars since time immemorial (going back to a 1979 Ford Fiesta bought in 1984) were hatchbacks, with exactly zero exceptions. The model 3 sells here (to me and others) despite the fact it's a sedan.

    Glad to see the Zoe is also picking up sales. The Zoe II will have more range so it should also appeal to a large audience...
     
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  14. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    All that Advertising seems to be paying off. </sarcasm>

    Build a compelling product and people will buy it - surprised?
    Zoe, eGulf, ID3, most any reasonable electric will do fine, IF the OEMs will offer them.
    I'm amazed the Leaf fit so many buyers needs - my mistake.

    Limiting function is of course batteries.
     
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  15. NicoV

    NicoV Active Member

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    Interesting choice of the period: the first 5 months of the year, with the Model 3 not available in the first 6 weeks of that period, and not including june, they would only have needed to wait 12 days to include an absolute top month.
    It will be interesting to see how that lloks like for the last 6 months of 2019.
     
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  16. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (15%, down 1%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%, up 1%) is a recovering runner-up, but with June’s Tesla deliveries peak, expect the California-based maker to jump ahead again.

    Renault (10%, up 1%) is in the 3rd spot, with Hyundai and Mitsubishi not far behind, with 8%.

    EV Sales: Europe May 2019
     
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  17. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #3497 Troy, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
    The official UK numbers for Q1 2019 were released here. Q1 total was 646 registrations. Our estimate was 672 which is 96.0% accurate. 646 looks low but that actually puts the UK in second place after Norway in terms of only Model S/X registrations.

    [​IMG]


    The UK doesn't publish monthly numbers. The method we use to split the quarterly numbers into monthly is explained here.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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    Do you think it means that M3 could possibly sell in the thousands (plural) in UK?
     
  19. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #3499 Troy, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
    My best guess is 6,000 Model 3 registrations in the UK by the end of 2019.

    By the way, I have been estimating Tesla deliveries for the last few quarters on Twitter. This time, I decided to try to estimate Europe too. My estimate for Europe in June is 12,660 units. I tweeted this before the end of 30 June, Pacific Time. I'm not sure about the accuracy. I guess we will find out soon. Link to my tweet: Troy Teslike on Twitter

    Edit: Europe looks more like 15,500 in June based on initial data.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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