EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Right_Said_Fred]

90k in Q2 looks more bleak. And so is 400k for the year

Why would you say that when the quarter is barely more than a month old? That's way too early. Tesla gave the 90-100k guidance at the end of April, when they knew how many cars they had already delivered in the first weeks of the quarter and when they probably had a good insight about the number of cars in transport and firm orders for deliveries in Europe and maybe China through June. It's unlikely they just picked a random number.

 

[schonelucht]

Morning Cornelia is en route once more. Destination not yet disclosed, but it's northbound so likely Bremerhaven or any of the Norwegian destinations.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe April 2019


Hard to believe neither Model S nor Model X breaches the 2100 sales threshold to be in the top 20, Model S with 2005 sales and Model X with 1858.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Hard to believe neither Model S nor Model X breaches the 2100 sales threshold to be in the top 20, Model S with 2005 sales and Model X with 1858.

My guess is that the model S and X are just very large cars. I live in Greece, and a majority of these roads are tiny. I've traveled to Italy, and a lot of the roads I saw while there were also small. Germany, from what I saw, was decent (but then fighting the German native car market). Not only is it just driving the car, but parking as well.

So that could be a large factor. The Model 3 is smaller, and better fit to the roads. And a lot cheaper, since the 24% VAT would be murder on a 100k car.

 

[AustinPowers]

Hard to believe neither Model S nor Model X breaches the 2100 sales threshold to be in the top 20, Model S with 2005 sales and Model X with 1858.

I think this was to be expected. Until the arrival of the Model 3, the Model S and X were the only real long-range BEVs available and many people were willing to stretch in order to be able to afford one, even if those models were both too expensive really as well as far too large for what most people need in everyday driving (and parking) over here.

Now the Model 3 offers comparable range plus Tesla tech at much more affordable prices and in a "European-road-friendly" package.
I don't think Model S or X sales will pick up again over here, at least not until some significant refresh arrives. And even then sales numbers will remain low because the oversized nature of these cars stays the same and once it arrives the Model Y will satisfy the needs of most buyers who look for an SUV-type Tesla.

 

[schonelucht]

Another headwind for EU sales is the end of supercharging as a unique selling point. Ionity just opened its 100th station across Europa and Fastned is up to 98. A number of smaller networks are also expanding.

 

[NicoV]

Another headwind for EU sales is the end of supercharging as a unique selling point. Ionity just opened its 100th station across Europa and Fastned is up to 98. A number of smaller networks are also expanding.

Well, in Belgium Ionity has 12 chargers on 3 sites. Tesla has 138 chargers on 13 sites. Headwind yes, but in the opposite direction, for the non-Tesla drivers.

 

[Electroman]

Ionity just opened its 100th station across Europa and Fastned is up to 98. A number of smaller networks are also expanding.

Why is this a head wind for Tesla?

 

[FinFan]

This quarters cars started arriving in Norvay today, I think. 52 Model 3's registered today already. Fun to see how high the tally ends up this quarter.. And interesting if Tesla starts unraveling the wave format a little.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla started confirming the first Model 3 SR deliveries in the Netherlands from next week on. Meaning Grand Dahlia carried SRs.

 

[RobStark]

 

[canoemore]

Something that catches my eye about this chart is how the other 4 models are all hatchbacks. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Y comes to market. I suppose it'll be a lot more expensive than many other hatchbacks, but still...

 

[sixela]

Almost all cars in Europe are hatchbacks/CUV/SUVs, except the Tesla S and 3. All my former cars since time immemorial (going back to a 1979 Ford Fiesta bought in 1984) were hatchbacks, with exactly zero exceptions. The model 3 sells here (to me and others) despite the fact it's a sedan.

Glad to see the Zoe is also picking up sales. The Zoe II will have more range so it should also appeal to a large audience...

 

[Brando]

All that Advertising seems to be paying off. </sarcasm>

Build a compelling product and people will buy it - surprised?
Zoe, eGulf, ID3, most any reasonable electric will do fine, IF the OEMs will offer them.
I'm amazed the Leaf fit so many buyers needs - my mistake.

Limiting function is of course batteries.

 

[NicoV]

Interesting choice of the period: the first 5 months of the year, with the Model 3 not available in the first 6 weeks of that period, and not including june, they would only have needed to wait 12 days to include an absolute top month.
It will be interesting to see how that lloks like for the last 6 months of 2019.

 

[RobStark]

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (15%, down 1%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%, up 1%) is a recovering runner-up, but with June’s Tesla deliveries peak, expect the California-based maker to jump ahead again.

Renault (10%, up 1%) is in the 3rd spot, with Hyundai and Mitsubishi not far behind, with 8%.

EV Sales: Europe May 2019

 

[Troy]

The official UK numbers for Q1 2019 were released here. Q1 total was 646 registrations. Our estimate was 672 which is 96.0% accurate. 646 looks low but that actually puts the UK in second place after Norway in terms of only Model S/X registrations.

The UK doesn't publish monthly numbers. The method we use to split the quarterly numbers into monthly is explained here.

 

[aubreymcfato]

The official UK numbers for Q1 2019 were released here. Q1 total was 646 registrations. Our estimate was 672 which is 96.0% accurate. 646 looks low but that actually puts the UK in second place after Norway in terms of only Model S/X registrations.

The UK doesn't publish monthly numbers. To split the quarterly numbers into monthly, we use a certain method which is explained here.

Do you think it means that M3 could possibly sell in the thousands (plural) in UK?

 

[Troy]

Do you think it means that M3 could possibly sell in the thousands (plural) in UK?

My best guess is 6,000 Model 3 registrations in the UK by the end of 2019.

By the way, I have been estimating Tesla deliveries for the last few quarters on Twitter. This time, I decided to try to estimate Europe too. My estimate for Europe in June is 12,660 units. I tweeted this before the end of 30 June, Pacific Time. I'm not sure about the accuracy. I guess we will find out soon. Link to my tweet: Troy Teslike on Twitter

Edit: Europe looks more like 15,500 in June based on initial data.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Non-EU Switzerland Tesla totals: June 659 [283 June 2018] // YTD 2'989 [788 YTD 2018]

Source http://e3.marco.ch/publish/autoschweiz/941_958/2019-07-02_MOFISPW2019_06.pdf

In Jan-May, the Model 3 was the 7th best selling vehicle, ahead of all ICE "rivals". See:

auto-schweiz: Zulassungen neuer Personenwagen nach Modellen