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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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EV Sales: Finland June 2019
 
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Reactions: hiroshiy
There are some interesting statistics for Tesla Model 3 sales in Switzerland for March to June 2019 in a German language forum here. Switzerland is a particularly interesting market as there is mostly no special support for EV's and there is no local car industry to be protected. In some Cantons taxes are even higher than for equivalent ICE cars. Switzerland often serves as an automotive test-market. The graph below is from the site referenced above. Note that 4WD cars are appreciated on snowy mountain roads.

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US sales Jan. - May 2019
sorry, this probably the wrong place to post, and probably a duplicate - perhaps someone missed it?
  • Tesla Model 3: 178,499
  • Mercedes-Benz C-Class: 78,262
  • BMW 3-Series: 60,932
  • Audi A4: 44,849
  • Lexus IS: 29,566
  • Jaguar XE: 6,925
https://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/Teslamodel3owns.JPG

Tesla Model 3 Outsold Premium Competitors By 100,000 Since 2018
That US Model 3 number is way off. InsideEVs has US Model 3 sales at 46.5k from Jan-May 2019. A bit ahead of Audi A4, well behind BMW and Mercedes. It's a little unfair to cut it off in May, though, as June was by far Tesla's strongest month.

For context, Tesla sold 128.5k Model 3s worldwide through June. 178.5k in US only through May is a goofball number.
 
It had been set to go to 2% company car tax next April. They just recently decided on no tax.
I think this is going to be massive for EV take-up in the UK.

It’s true that the 2020 tax rate for BEVs was previously announced at 2% and is now 0% (down from 16% this year). But this attractive 2% rate was impossible to exploit as previously govt had always announced rates for the next 3 years in order for people to have certainty on what they were going to pay during a normal 3 year car lease. But for some reason (scared of reduced tax revenues?) last time they only provided rates for 1 year). Now, under more pressure generally on climate & air pollution, they’ve announced 0% followed by 1% and 2% in following years.

You pay tax on the % of the vehicle list price multiplied by your marginal tax rate. I suspect that substantially all Tesla drivers will pay higher rate uk tax (40 or 45%). EVs are also the only cars that are compliant with ‘salary sacrifice’ schemes. These allow employees to reduce their salaries to enable their employers to fund the car lease. In this way the employee can pay for the lease from their gross (pre income.tax) earnings.

So basically whilst company car tax is usually pretty penal in the uk (and therefore actively avoided), uk higher tax rate employees will now be able lease a Tesla for 3 years in a way that reduces the cost by 40 or 45% compared with taking a personal lease with close to zero company car tax.

As I say, this should be massive. Expect deliveries to accelerate meaningfully from April 2020.
 
I think this is going to be massive for EV take-up in the UK.

It’s true that the 2020 tax rate for BEVs was previously announced at 2% and is now 0% (down from 16% this year). But this attractive 2% rate was impossible to exploit as previously govt had always announced rates for the next 3 years in order for people to have certainty on what they were going to pay during a normal 3 year car lease. But for some reason (scared of reduced tax revenues?) last time they only provided rates for 1 year). Now, under more pressure generally on climate & air pollution, they’ve announced 0% followed by 1% and 2% in following years.

You pay tax on the % of the vehicle list price multiplied by your marginal tax rate. I suspect that substantially all Tesla drivers will pay higher rate uk tax (40 or 45%). EVs are also the only cars that are compliant with ‘salary sacrifice’ schemes. These allow employees to reduce their salaries to enable their employers to fund the car lease. In this way the employee can pay for the lease from their gross (pre income.tax) earnings.

So basically whilst company car tax is usually pretty penal in the uk (and therefore actively avoided), uk higher tax rate employees will now be able lease a Tesla for 3 years in a way that reduces the cost by 40 or 45% compared with taking a personal lease with close to zero company car tax.

As I say, this should be massive. Expect deliveries to accelerate meaningfully from April 2020.
I would expect some UK people to try and get a jump on this. If you register an EV before April, it still gets the 0% once April rolls around. Considering the several month delay that RHD customers are currently experiencing, my guess is that plenty of folks will order later this yeAr/early next year even if they have to pay a few months worth of the current tax regime.
 
Other sponsors of the council presidency have included car manufacturers, software companies and other firms with vested interests in influencing EU policy.

But hopes that the incoming Finnish presidency, which took the helm this summer, might end the practice, were dashed after it picked German car manufacturer BMW as a sponsor – despite the firm being hit with a fine over its cars’ diesel emissions earlier this year.

Corporate sponsorship of EU presidency to continue despite outcry
 
Poland is a tiny EV country. Sales for 1H 2019:

  1. BMW i3 – 603
  2. Nissan Leaf – 106
  3. Renault Zoe – 50
  4. Jaguar I-Pace – 43
  5. Audi e-tron – 42
  6. VW e-Golf – 27
  7. Hyundai Kona Electric
  8. Tesla Model 3 – 16
  9. Tesla Model S – 10
  10. Tesla Model X – 8
500 of those i3's and 40 of the Zoe's are for car sharing companies.

There were also 56 delivery vans sold (vs 16 a year ago):

1. Citroen Berlingo - 13
2. Kangoo Express - 13
3. Mercedes eVito - 10
4. Crafter - 8
5. Nissan e-NV-200 - 8

Source

I'm almost ashamed reporting these numbers.

There are total of 3645 EV's registered in the country with 445 Teslas.

HOWEVER, an incentive is going to be introduced in the coming weeks of up to 36,000 PLN ~= 8,300 EUR! This would make it one of the biggest EV incentives in Europe. Unfortunately, there is a twist that in its current draft the incentive is limited to cars with price tag less than 125,000 PLN ~= 29,000 EUR, effectively limiting it to just a few tiny city cars. The final bill hasn't been created yet, so there's hope this limit will be gone or at least raised to something more inclusive.
 
Poland is a tiny EV country. Sales for 1H 2019:

  1. BMW i3 – 603
  2. Nissan Leaf – 106
  3. Renault Zoe – 50
  4. Jaguar I-Pace – 43
  5. Audi e-tron – 42
  6. VW e-Golf – 27
  7. Hyundai Kona Electric
  8. Tesla Model 3 – 16
  9. Tesla Model S – 10
  10. Tesla Model X – 8
500 of those i3's and 40 of the Zoe's are for car sharing companies.

There were also 56 delivery vans sold (vs 16 a year ago):

1. Citroen Berlingo - 13
2. Kangoo Express - 13
3. Mercedes eVito - 10
4. Crafter - 8
5. Nissan e-NV-200 - 8

Source

I'm almost ashamed reporting these numbers.

There are total of 3645 EV's registered in the country with 445 Teslas.

HOWEVER, an incentive is going to be introduced in the coming weeks of up to 36,000 PLN ~= 8,300 EUR! This would make it one of the biggest EV incentives in Europe. Unfortunately, there is a twist that in its current draft the incentive is limited to cars with price tag less than 125,000 PLN ~= 29,000 EUR, effectively limiting it to just a few tiny city cars. The final bill hasn't been created yet, so there's hope this limit will be gone or at least raised to something more inclusive.

Interesting... Poland has 4x the population of Hungary and GDP per capita is fairly similar - $15k for both of our countries. I would have expected higher EV numbers. For us the latest H1 2019 stats are 1405 BEV and 2018 hybrids.

Now we do have a maximum 1.5M HUF ~= 4,600 EUR incentive but it`s only for BEVs sold by a local official dealership of a brand, so Teslas are excluded for now. Hopefully once the Budapest Service Center opens (already on the map with grey), they will become eligible if Tesla registers the local affiliate for new car sales as well.
 
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