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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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EV Sales: Denmark December 2019
 
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Reactions: hiroshiy
Poland has been a very tiny market for Tesla, but nevertheless they made small steps last year to enter the country officially with a "lite" service center in Warsaw and 4 Supercharger locations over the last few years.

Tesla hasn't been officially selling cars in Poland yet, but there's already a few hundred Teslas registered. Some are US imports, but last year few companies have started importing Model 3's from the European distribution, for a hefty (~3-4k EUR) markup and one of them has even opened an gallery/store in Warsaw where you can come in and buy a Tesla just like in regular Tesla store. In total they must have sold more than a 100 Model 3's last year (based on my observations of Polish Tesla groups).

It looks like the expansion will continue this year and we will finally become a "core market".

1. Job ad for a Store Manager in Warsaw was recently posted on Tesla website ( Store Manager - Warsaw | Tesla ). Same time last year a job ad for Service Manager was posted and the service opened in July. Could we assume a similar timeframe? Probably not, as there's much more to opening a store than hiring its manager ;)

Interestingly, the job requires fluent Dutch - which may be a big blocker as it's not a very popular language to learn (and all Dutch people I know speak almost native-level English, so I'm surprised this is required).

2. Two "stealth" Supercharger locations were unexpectedly opened last week in the country. One in Radom (construction spotted mid December) and one in Warsaw. The one in Warsaw was criticized heavily as it's on underground level -5 of a hotel inside the city, there are only 2 stalls cramped in a corner in a way that two X's can barely fit next to each other. And maximum power output is 70 kW (for now, supposedly).

Neither of these Supercharger locations have ever been on the Tesla map of planned locations and they are still not visible on the web or in the cars. In the meantime, most requested and most important location right in the country's mid point (Strykow, near Lodz) has been postponed since 2016 when it first appeared on the map.

Trusted sources say that there's at least 2 more SuC locations being actively worked on in Poland and one is supposedly near highway on Warsaw's outskirts for better access during road trips (as it should be).

3. There is also a Polish accent on the Gigafactory. It's going to be only about 70 km away from the Polish border and apparently Tesla wants to leverage that by hiring a recruitment manager that is fluent in Polish. Job ad for such role was on Tesla's site for the last few weeks (but it seems to have been pulled now that I checked - maybe position filled already?).

Gigafactory 4 will therefore have access to a cheaper work force than German population. Of course, they will still have to pay at least Germany's minimal wage (~1.5k EUR), but that is still higher than Poland's national average wage (~1.1k EUR). Not sure if Germans are gonna be happy about it.

4. Big EV incentives are being introduced this year in Poland (up to ~8k EUR), but Teslas are going to be excluded due to price limit (~32k EUR). Nevertheless, I imagine once a Tesla car can be easily bought and delivered in the country without any shenanigans there's gonna be quite a few buyers.
 
Whats the relative size of European mid sized SUVs to mid sized sedans?

You mean physical size?

The exterior is roughly the same but since SUVs are two box designs vs sedan three box design the interior is significantly bigger.

In Europe they really don't have what Detroit designers and engineers call SUVs. Body on frame vehicles.

In Europe virtually all "SUV"s are what Detroit calls crossovers. Europeans make "SUV" looking vehicles on sedan unibody structures.

BMW X3 built on 3 Series sedan structure.
BMW X5 built on 5 Series sedan structure.
BMW X7 built on 7 Series sedan structure etc.
 
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Reactions: VValleyEV
Sorry market size / unit sold of whatever the like category comparison for the Model Y is

Haven't seen someone compile full year numbers but here is first half of 2019.

upload_2020-2-7_22-27-26.png

Length of Model Y would put it at compact size while interior volume and width would put it at midsize/medium category.

Initial price would put Model Y in Premium segment while some argue TCO puts it in standard segment.

You be the judge.
 
Haven't seen someone compile full year numbers but here is first half of 2019.

View attachment 509160
Length of Model Y would put it at compact size while interior volume and width would put it at midsize/medium category.

Initial price would put Model Y in Premium segment while some argue TCO puts it in standard segment.

You be the judge.

Thanks! This is terrific info to help make guesses of MY adoption.

Can you provide the dimension ranges and price ranges that were used for arranging the cars into these categories? Examples of vehicles for each category? Perhaps a source article? (No good deed goes unpunished).
 
A friend in Germany sent me this, just published in Welt, numbers supposedly from vehicle registrations. Do you know why the numbers are so much different? Rough guess the BEV number total might be similar, but their “hybrid” number is 2.5x you total for both BEV and PHEV. Thx for your feedback.
View attachment 515979
Does the WELT number include conventional hybrids as well as PHEVs? Euro carmakers are pushing conventional hybrids as well, and Toyota is all-in.
 
Does the WELT number include conventional hybrids as well as PHEVs? Euro carmakers are pushing conventional hybrids as well, and Toyota is all-in.

Ah, I think that is probably the case. When I hear “hybrid” I think plug-in hybrid, which is I think what is included in Rob’s data and NOT the “conventional” hybrids that can only be fueled with gasoline. I once had a 2010 Prius, and considered it a “hybrid” at the time, but I do not now.

This view of the data (including “conventional” hybrids, not just PHEV) helps push the narrative that “see, the pure BEVs are are still small part of the EV market, people still want cars with gas engines to get enough range”.