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EU Market Situation and Outlook

mrco

Member
Feb 5, 2016
27
31
UK
February numbers looking very disappointing in Europe. I guess other OEMs actually trying to sell their EVs is having some effect on Tesla.
 
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Compton

Member
Dec 13, 2017
332
2,962
Finland
February numbers looking very disappointing in Europe. I guess other OEMs actually trying to sell their EVs is having some effect on Tesla.

The cars have not yet arrived over the pond in significant numbers. What are they supposed to sell? Cardboard images of the cars?
 
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mrco

Member
Feb 5, 2016
27
31
UK
They managed to get lots of cars over the pond on each of the previous 2nd months of the quarter. It could be that they’re allocating production elsewhere but that makes no sense with China plant now producing and US demand usually quieter in early part of the year. And at least in the UK, the model 3 order wait time has been pretty consistent so feels more like demand is the issue rather than a supply problem (Coronavirus was too late to effect Feb cars in Europe).
 

Brunel

Member
Jan 26, 2015
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100
Bristol, UK
At least 2 ships were delayed by the storms in February. One has just been unloading in Southampton and lorry loads heading up the motorways in the UK (delayed into Zeebrugge and then onward transport to UK, so both mainland and UK affected).
 
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Doggydogworld

Active Member
Mar 4, 2019
1,742
6,792
Texas
February numbers looking very disappointing in Europe. I guess other OEMs actually trying to sell their EVs is having some effect on Tesla.
Have you seen Germany or UK? EDIT: Germany just posted 685. That's much stronger than November, supporting the "Q4 starvation in favor of the Netherlands" thesis. It is down from last February when there was a lot of pent-up demand.

There's a report of 1024 Model 3s in France, which is a huge number for month 2. The smaller countries are a a mixed bag. Austria and Italy were strong, Switzerland and Sweden weak, etc.

We knew the Netherlands would be way down (I said down 80-90% from Q4, though KarenRei and others vehemently disagreed). Norway is the interesting one. New car shipments didn't arrive there until the last day of February. We'll see if March really takes off, but IMHO Tesla will lose a lot of market share in Norway this year. I could see ~10k sales this year vs. 18.8k last year.
 
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mrco

Member
Feb 5, 2016
27
31
UK
Agree about Norway and March confirms it, e-Tron outselling Model 3 even in March (as well as smashing it for Q1). E-Tron launched at the same time as M3. Why anyone would pay that money for the c200 mile range is beyond me but the Norwegians seem to be getting a bit bored of Tesla.
 

avoigt

Active Member
Sep 5, 2017
2,840
40,132
Germany
Agree about Norway and March confirms it, e-Tron outselling Model 3 even in March (as well as smashing it for Q1). E-Tron launched at the same time as M3. Why anyone would pay that money for the c200 mile range is beyond me but the Norwegians seem to be getting a bit bored of Tesla.
Agree about Norway and March confirms it, e-Tron outselling Model 3 even in March (as well as smashing it for Q1). E-Tron launched at the same time as M3. Why anyone would pay that money for the c200 mile range is beyond me but the Norwegians seem to be getting a bit bored of Tesla.

4F9B7797-EC4E-4EC9-BBDA-6A137820E19B.png
 

Oil4AsphaultOnly

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 14, 2015
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Arcadia, CA
What are the actual sales numbers? Sorry, not seeing the post (was it by someone on ignore?).

Agree about Norway and March confirms it, e-Tron outselling Model 3 even in March (as well as smashing it for Q1). E-Tron launched at the same time as M3. Why anyone would pay that money for the c200 mile range is beyond me but the Norwegians seem to be getting a bit bored of Tesla.
 

mrco

Member
Feb 5, 2016
27
31
UK
In fact the last time Tesla sold so few cars in a quarter in Norway was q2 2017. And now they have a much cheaper product on sale, and the proportion of plug-in sales is much higher.
Like it or not, there is now real competition for Tesla in Europe. OEMs need the EV sales in order to avoid fines, are advertising the cars and are incentivising their dealers to sell them.
I think H2 2019 gave a false impression of demand in Europe as was driven by Netherlands subsidy changes and only Tesla had the EV production capacity to meet that. But exactly why Tesla is doing so badly in Norway in particular, I have no idea.
 

Cobos

S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Supporting Member
Jun 22, 2007
1,510
2,201
Oslo, Norway
I really question why e-tron sells so well here as well.
Audi generally has a good reputation here, and was selling well before. They make a premium product, i.e. the doors make the right sound when you close them and stuff like that.
Tesla was the only long range family car for a long time, and due to low speeds the e-tron get's you to your cabin, where you charge and then gets you back on Sunday.
Model 3 sold a big lot last year so they might have saturated the market a bit. Tesla has had serious issues with service capacity and quality on the month 3 of the quarter deliveries. So Tesla's are high priced product with a very low class service at times.
The dollar cost 5.5NOK when Tesla sold it's first Model S here in 2013 now it's at 10.4NOK, while the Euro has only increased about 20-40%. So a Model S 85 cost as much as a M3P costs now so that also strongly influences how much value you get.
Not the least Norway used to be a solid 80% of the market as station wagons and 20% sedans, that's 10 % station wagons, 70% crossovers/small SUVS/whatever they call it and 20% sedans now.

That's the reasons I can think of, but maybe someone else that knows the Norwegian market can elaborate or add some more reasons?
 

Oil4AsphaultOnly

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,032
5,875
Arcadia, CA
I really question why e-tron sells so well here as well.
Audi generally has a good reputation here, and was selling well before. They make a premium product, i.e. the doors make the right sound when you close them and stuff like that.
Tesla was the only long range family car for a long time, and due to low speeds the e-tron get's you to your cabin, where you charge and then gets you back on Sunday.
Model 3 sold a big lot last year so they might have saturated the market a bit. Tesla has had serious issues with service capacity and quality on the month 3 of the quarter deliveries. So Tesla's are high priced product with a very low class service at times.
The dollar cost 5.5NOK when Tesla sold it's first Model S here in 2013 now it's at 10.4NOK, while the Euro has only increased about 20-40%. So a Model S 85 cost as much as a M3P costs now so that also strongly influences how much value you get.
Not the least Norway used to be a solid 80% of the market as station wagons and 20% sedans, that's 10 % station wagons, 70% crossovers/small SUVS/whatever they call it and 20% sedans now.

That's the reasons I can think of, but maybe someone else that knows the Norwegian market can elaborate or add some more reasons?

I'd throw in the fact that model Y is in production. The anticipation probably osbourned the model 3 in Norway.

Edit: Yup! The model 3 is the ONLY sedan, until you get to the corolla! Hatchbacks and SUV's all in the top X in sales. This sales slump is just temporary.
 

Cobos

S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Supporting Member
Jun 22, 2007
1,510
2,201
Oslo, Norway
I'd throw in the fact that model Y is in production. The anticipation probably osbourned the model 3 in Norway.

Edit: Yup! The model 3 is the ONLY sedan, until you get to the corolla! Hatchbacks and SUV's all in the top X in sales. This sales slump is just temporary.
Actually the Corolla in Norway is the shape of a Golf or a Polo. Which is a small hatchback I think it’s called. Or a station wagon it seems. Look here:
Toyota Corolla 5-dørs Active 5d | En ny tid
 
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Cobos

S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Supporting Member
Jun 22, 2007
1,510
2,201
Oslo, Norway
Yes the Y should sell well here, especially if oil price is up. That usually means the NOK strengthens and the price goes down here in Norway. Or rather they do deals like they did before with 0.5% interest instead of lowering the price of the car. Which is nice as it maintains the second hand value of the car.
 

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,749
15,613
Germany
Allowing myself to cross-post @Chocochip ´s post from the roundtable thread as it fits here even better:

A quick update from the British Isles; March UK registration numbers for new cars were released today (6th April), and Tesla seems to have managed to beat their monthly delivery record, even with a lockdown in place for the past 2 weeks.

The exact number of deliveries is a bit of a guessing game, as Tesla refused to become a member of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) :eek: and therefore its registrations are bunched up with those of some exotic car makers in a category marked "Other imports" rather than broken off separately as for most OEMs. However, based on historical data it's safe to assume that all other registrations in this group except Tesla come to about 150 cars or less in March, and so out of the total 5235 "other imports", there should be something like 5100 Teslas. We will find out the exact number of registered Tesla vehicles for the whole Q1 sometime this summer, probably end of June, when they are published on the gov.uk website.

One thing we do know for sure is that there were 4718 Model 3s delivered. That's because the SMMT also publishes a list of the top 10 best selling models, and in March the 9th best selling car was... wait for it... "Other", with 4718 regs! Personally, I'm really curious to see what happens when Model Y deliveries hit their stride in the UK and both the 3 and the Y end up in the top 10... hmmm...

Of significance, this March saw a 44.4% drop in car registrations Y-o-Y, mainly attributed to the pandemic-associated lockdown. However, BEVs registered increased almost by a factor of 3, from 3917 in 2019 to 11,694 in 2020, and have reached a market share of 4.59% (mainly at the expense of diesels, who sadly still hold over 20% market share); previous record-high was 3.4% in August 2019, when the Model 3 was the 3rd best seller in the UK. There is actually a very close correlation between significant Model 3 deliveries and jumps in the BEV market share.

With the lockdown still in place for the foreseeable future, April looks pessimistic. This is even sadder as the benefit-in-kind tax cut for BEVs was about to kick in and I was hoping for a massive "wave"... The wave is momentarily delayed, but will hopefully be reaching these shores this summer.

Didn´t know the part of Tesla not joining SMMT and that being the reason they are not mentioned by name in the reports.
 

dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,542
13,442
Naperville, IL
I really question why e-tron sells so well here as well.
Audi generally has a good reputation here, and was selling well before. They make a premium product, i.e. the doors make the right sound when you close them and stuff like that.
Tesla was the only long range family car for a long time, and due to low speeds the e-tron get's you to your cabin, where you charge and then gets you back on Sunday.
Model 3 sold a big lot last year so they might have saturated the market a bit. Tesla has had serious issues with service capacity and quality on the month 3 of the quarter deliveries. So Tesla's are high priced product with a very low class service at times.
The dollar cost 5.5NOK when Tesla sold it's first Model S here in 2013 now it's at 10.4NOK, while the Euro has only increased about 20-40%. So a Model S 85 cost as much as a M3P costs now so that also strongly influences how much value you get.
Not the least Norway used to be a solid 80% of the market as station wagons and 20% sedans, that's 10 % station wagons, 70% crossovers/small SUVS/whatever they call it and 20% sedans now.

That's the reasons I can think of, but maybe someone else that knows the Norwegian market can elaborate or add some more reasons?
Towing. Tesla needs a tow hitch on Model 3 or better Model Y.
 

Cobos

S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Supporting Member
Jun 22, 2007
1,510
2,201
Oslo, Norway
Towing. Tesla needs a tow hitch on Model 3 or better Model Y.
Actually both the Model 3 in Europe and the e-Tron can tow, 910kg and 1800kg respectively.
As most towing in Norway is not a boat, but lighter aluminum trailers with maybe 2-300kg I dare say Model 3's towing capacity is OK. So that's not it. And both the e-tron and the 3 can do skiboxes.
 
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hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,749
15,613
Germany
Tesla plans to resume production in Fremont on May 4 per email leaked to electrek: Tesla announces pay cuts, furloughs, and aims to get back to production by May 4 - Electrek

This would mean 6 weeks downtime for Fremont. That would be the time when usually cars for Europe would be produced and shipped. But if I remember correctly shipping takes about two weeks SFO to Zeebrugge (need to add some time for production and distribution) so they have a small time window of a few weeks left plus the cars they were not able to deliver in March due to corona. @Troy
 

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