EU Market Situation and Outlook

[tomsky]

Estonia and Ireland - 0 in august
Estonia: http://www.mnt.ee/file.php?28395
Can somebody double check this? I google translated it so i'm not 100% sure about it.

Ireland: http://files.simi.ie/statistics/2015/National%20Vehicle%20Statistics/August_StatsPressRel2015.xls
I see a "private import" line in this table, given Tesla is not officially present there could this include also teslas imported by owners from Nederlands?

 

[SebastianR]

I would like to point out that majority of the cars delivered in Q2 was backlog of S85D/P85D orders from Q4 2014, i expect to see just 2000-2500 in Q3 unless Tesla announces Major changes soon that will still be deliverable in Q3.
Feel free to timestamp this post.

Ich weiss, ich weiss, abgerechnet wird erst am Ende - BUT: I just want to point out that we more than passed your low-estimate of 2000 cars for Europe after 2/3rds of Q3 - if we can believe the Wiki page on EU deliveries (currently at July: 1182 (1107+75), August: 1125 (1050+75)).

 

[Ingenieur]

I said unless Tesla introduces major changes that would drive demand, like S70,90,Ludicrous and Referrals. Also Tesla continued to aggressively ramp up fleet sales in Germany (and most likely other countries but i dont know) through leasing, offering preconfigured cars that are deliverable within few weeks, if you are in position just get a leasing Appraisal from German Sales team, then ask yourself what margins they make on this lease (hint: Tiny)

I also forgot about D release in UK, i think September will seen ca. 1300 cars sold in EU with ca. 400 in UK. This doesnt change the fact that current order intake is not sustainable, i see Q4 # around same as Q3 as some buyers in Denmark and Netherlands try to get the car before tax regime changes

 

[voyager]

Dunno how many Teslas sold in the EU the Netherlands represent... but it's just been decided that expensive EVs like the Model S, will fall under the usual fiscal category for lease cars, beginning in 2017. No doubt that will affect present sales.

 

[Benz]

Dunno how many Teslas sold in the EU the Netherlands represent... but it's just been decided that expensive EVs like the Model S, will fall under the usual fiscal category for lease cars, beginning in 2017. No doubt that will affect present sales.

What is the source of this information?

 

[32no]

Tesla is charging more for the Model S in some European countries and less in others. Kind of strange:

Country	Price (S70)	VAT	Price-VAT	Price in dollars	Premium	%
Norway (Kr)	548,000	-	548,000	$66,887	(-$3113)	-4.45%
UK (Pound)	50,800	20%	42,333	$65,265	(-$4735)	-6.76%
Netherlands (EU)	77,800	21%	64,298	$72,708	$2,708	+3.87%
Germany (EU)	76,400	19%	64,201	$72,599	$2,599	+3.71%
Switzerland (EU)	72,300	8%	66,944	$69,103	(-$897)	-1.28%
Denmark (DKK)	599,000	25%	479,200	$72,647	$2,647	+3.78%
Sweden (SEK)*	798,000	25%	638,400	$77,375	$7,375	+10.54%

*(Sweden includes 3 years of VSG insurance, I'm not sure what that is...)

The net effect of all the prices in Europe seems to be zero (once considering negative and positive).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Germany installing 400 fast chargers (Type 2, CHAdeMO, CCS) at the autobahn accross the country (link).
That equals a fast charging spot each 30km on the autobahn network.

 

[hobbes]

Germany installing 400 fast chargers (Type 2, CHAdeMO, CCS) at the autobahn accross the country (link).
That equals a fast charging spot each 30km on the autobahn network.

Wow. If they pull through, I think that will be the breakthrough for EVs in Germany. And it will help Tesla, too.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Wow. If they pull through, I think that will be the breakthrough for EVs in Germany. And it will help Tesla, too.

As I am currently travelling I do not have the time to dig in deeper, will try tomorrow.

 

[widodh]

Wow. If they pull through, I think that will be the breakthrough for EVs in Germany. And it will help Tesla, too.

IF! They should provide more then 50kW for sure.

 

[Larken]

Tesla is charging more for the Model S in some European countries and less in others. Kind of strange:

Country	Price (S70)	VAT	Price-VAT	Price in dollars	Premium	%
Norway (Kr)	548,000	-	548,000	$66,887	(-$3113)	-4.45%
UK (Pound)	50,800	20%	42,333	$65,265	(-$4735)	-6.76%
Netherlands (EU)	77,800	21%	64,298	$72,708	$2,708	+3.87%
Germany (EU)	76,400	19%	64,201	$72,599	$2,599	+3.71%
Switzerland (EU)	72,300	8%	66,944	$69,103	(-$897)	-1.28%
Denmark (DKK)	599,000	25%	479,200	$72,647	$2,647	+3.78%
Sweden (SEK)*	798,000	25%	638,400	$77,375	$7,375	+10.54%

*(Sweden includes 3 years of VSG insurance, I'm not sure what that is...)

The net effect of all the prices in Europe seems to be zero (once considering negative and positive).

VSG stands for "vagnskadegaranti" which translates too "vehicle damage warranty".

 

[ScepticMatt]

Germany installing 400 fast chargers (Type 2, CHAdeMO, CCS) at the autobahn accross the country (link).
That equals a fast charging spot each 30km on the autobahn network.

This has been known for a while, this is called "research projekt SLAM" (Schnellladenetz für Achsen und Metropolen = fast chargers for junctions and metropolises)
The chargers themselves are 50 kW CCS + 43 kW AC, but new points have transformers and connectors in place for 200 kW per charge point (150 kW CCS + 43 kW AC)
Edit: Also 50kW CHAdeMO

More info: SLAM - Schnellladenetz für Achsen und Metropolen

 

[hobbes]

This has been known for a while, this is called "research projekt SLAM" (Schnellladenetz für Achsen und Metropolen = fast chargers for junctions and metropolises)
The chargers themselves are 50 kW CCS + 43 kW AC, but new points have transformers and connectors in place for 200 kW per charge point (150 kW CCS + 43 kW AC)
Edit: Also 50kW CHAdeMO

More info: SLAM - Schnellladenetz für Achsen und Metropolen

Have also heard about SLAM, but this is something different - a private operator of freeway rest and fuel stations equipping all of his locations with chargers - no research. Same thing Tesla has done with another company like this for superchargers, but not quite the same coverage (yet).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

New car sales in Europe up significantly (link: ACEA):

In August 2015, demand for new passenger cars in the EU was up (+11.2%), reflecting the ongoing recovery in the market and pursuing the upward trend commenced two years ago. August is typically one of the weakest months for registrations, together with February, however the month saw continued growth in all major markets. Registrations in Spain (+23.3%), Italy (+10.6%), France (+10.0%), the UK (+9.6%) and Germany (+6.2%) increased compared to August 2014. Across the region, new passenger car registrations totalled 744,799 units.
Over eight months in 2015, new passenger car registrations increased (+8.6%), surpassing 9 million units (9,056,539). All major markets posted growth, contributing to the overall upturn of the EU market over the period. Southern European countries in particular are enjoying strong growth, with Spain (+22.3%) and Italy (+15.0%) posting double-digit percentage gains, followed by the UK (+6.7%), France (+5.9%) and Germany (+5.6%).

 

[ScepticMatt]

Have also heard about SLAM, but this is something different - a private operator of freeway rest and fuel stations equipping all of his locations with chargers - no research.

It's still part of SLAM. But it is true that "Tank & Rast GmbH" (Gas & rest LLC) ist paying for the 400 chargers.

 

[hobbes]

It's still part of SLAM. But it is true that "Tank & Rast GmbH" (Gas & rest LLC) ist paying for the 400 chargers.

O.k., finally read the page you linked above - private investors that join the program can get financial support, so I guess that is the case here.

 

[VolkerP]

It's still part of SLAM. But it is true that "Tank & Rast GmbH" (Gas & rest LLC) ist paying for the 400 chargers.

No this is a different programme. It is - complicated.

The SLAM programme is run by the office of economic affairs (BMWi) headed by Sigmar Gabriel, SPD BMWi - startet SLAM
It offers incentives for buying and installing fast chargers that adhere to the conditions: a CCS plug is mandatory, the AC type 2 socket/plug must have >22kW.
Multichargers with CHAdeMO plug are excluded from receiving incentives; however the power supply for a co-located multi charger will be subsidized.
The first such station was unveiled on September 14th. It features 2 dual (CCS DC+type 2 AC) charging points, with the multi charger to follow in a few weeks.

This is considered as barefaced protectionism for the SAE CCS standard and the (mostly european) car makers that support it. Very likely BMWi will face charges in an European court for this.

On the other hand there is office of transportation and infrastructure (BMVI) headed by Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) which announced to deploy 400 locations for fast charging and 50 for hydrogen. They fund the hardware and installation. The Tank & Rast Group which holds the concession for hundreds of highway stops was contracted to partner with that program. They will pay the running expenses like power and maintenance.
The first such station opened - you guessed it? - on September 14th:
BMVI - Pressemitteilungen-Minister Dobrindt sorgt für flächendeckendes E-Tankstellennetz

It features 3 multi chargers with 50kW DC (CCS or CHAdeMO) and 43kW AC type 2.

 

[hobbes]

Thanks for the very detailed an knowledgeable explanation!

No this is a different programme. It is - complicated.

The SLAM programme is run (...)

 

[hobbes]

MBacardi reports only 29 Model S registrations in Norway through Sep 12: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!

Is this just a fluctuation (boat just about to come in) or something more systematic, like everyone waiting for the X instead of buying an S? Anyone from Norway feel like chiming in?

 

[smac]

This is considered as barefaced protectionism for the SAE CCS standard and the (mostly european) car makers that support it. Very likely BMWi will face charges in an European court for this.

Why, I can find no EU laws saying CHAdeMO or Type 1 are mandatory, or even provisioned at all.

ACEA are proposing Type 2 / CCS as a requirement for whole vehicle type approval from 2017 onward. If this happens, and I really think it will, rolling out chargers that won't be suitable for any new cars seems a waste of resources.

For right or wrong, it really looks like CCS will win the standards war in the EU. I just think this is preempting the inevitable

http://www.acea.be/uploads/publications/Updated_ACEA_position_on_charging_ECVs.pdf