EU Market Situation and Outlook

[SebastianR]

So if I'm reading the chart correctly, Denmark went from just under 700 deliveries in 2014 to just over 2,600 in 2015 to date, of which about 1600 have come in the last quarter (all rough because it's unclear if data points are end of month or another date). Impressive.

Well, it is since the EV tax incentives will start to end this year: next year all EVs are no longer tax exempt but need to pay 20% of the regular car taxes. So everybody who was on the fence bought a Tesla this year. I suspect very little sales in the first three months of next year.

After that, however, I still do expect a few sales: The Model S will still be cheaper next year than a comparable ICE car and as we all know Teslas are sold not by prospectus or website but by getting people exposed to them. Since there will be a lot of Teslas in DK, I suspect quite a few people would want one after having experienced one...

 

[Julian Cox]

I'm not too concerned about that legislation right now. At least not for DK. If you search on http://nrpla.de/soeg for hydrogen ("brint") and currently registered cars ("Registreret") you come to a total of 54 cars for all of DK today while there are more than 9500 electric cars in DK.

Sebastian. Best not to underestimate the Oil Gas and Auto industry. It does not matter that nobody cares about FCVs including the companies that make them. What matters is the (proven) ability of fuel cell lobby groups to corrupt politicians resulting in divided policies and destructive anti-environmental legislation. In that regard the FCV represents a tool of deception (a sock puppet of the fossil fuel industry that provides a false alternative to EVs). This is ability to point to a useless alternative to EVs while giving corrupt politicians plausible deniability for deliberate environmental destruction is extremely powerful.

 

[hobbes]

Another update for Denmark: 1119 cars registered according to (inofficial) site Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning !

 

[Gerardf]

The regular update by MrBacardi on the Norwegian Elbil forum states 312 so far in Norway (Dec 26th).

http://elbilforum.no/forum/index.php/topic,13524.150.html


He also mentions a year total of 3988 and that in December the 10.000th Model-S was delivered in Norway !
And that in a country with a population of just over 5 million !

 

[chickensevil]

Another update for Denmark: 1119 cars registered according to (inofficial) site Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning !

Well that bodes well for us. Hopefully we get one last surge at the end of the month and break 1300

 

[SebastianR]

Another update for Denmark: 1119 cars registered according to (inofficial) site Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning !

You beat me to it The data reflects DEC registrations up to and including 26-Dec-2015.

 

[Troy]

Hi everybody. Hobbes and I have been working on improving the Europe 2015 Model S sales WIKI. We just added this new graph. I found this interesting because you can see how the pattern is similar in 2014 and 2015. The highest peak is in March, then there is a lower peak in June, then it continues to drop but rises again in December. I guess we will see something similar in 2016. These graphs will auto update each time there is a new entry. December data will soon start coming in. If you want to contribute, you can submit data using the form linked in the wiki.

Without 2013 and 2014 monthly data this graph wouldn't have been possible. Thanks to hummingbird for starting the work on monthly tables for 2013 HERE and thanks to forum member 32no for creating the 2013 table HERE and a year later the 2014 table HERE. Those were very helpful. I used an online tool to covert the images to a table. Your efforts have not been wasted. We have now monthly sales data for all countries in Europe since Model S started selling there. Links to 2013 and 2014 tables have been added to the wiki.

 

[hobbes]

Pretty cool to see how the end-of-quarter-pushes repeat, except for 2015Q3 - like Elon announce earlier this year they were going to try to do deliveries more constantly, but it looks after Model X was delayed they had to push hard again to make 2015 guidance. I guess next year with all the X reservations to build and lines for both cars running smoothly, we might see less of a bump again. Good work, Troy!

 

[chickensevil]

Wow, I love how you can see the shift in demand in the EU to be overall higher. This points toward what Elon had said regarding the EU market getting stronger this year. Starting in June Y/Y we are seeing around a 100% increase in the overall market. IIRC they said the EU was actually getting more of a percentage at one point than the NA market was of their overall production. Of course with what they did in Q4, I wouldn't be surprised if we see that drop off a bit.

Thanks everyone who have continued to get these numbers as this is really great data!

 

[Auzie]

Smoggy Naples catches up with Italian urban car bans

Milan, Rome and Naples imposed emergency restrictions on road traffic within certain hours, in a bid to limit air pollution.

 

[bonaire]

Wow, I love how you can see the shift in demand in the EU to be overall higher. This points toward what Elon had said regarding the EU market getting stronger this year. Starting in June Y/Y we are seeing around a 100% increase in the overall market. IIRC they said the EU was actually getting more of a percentage at one point than the NA market was of their overall production. Of course with what they did in Q4, I wouldn't be surprised if we see that drop off a bit.

Thanks everyone who have continued to get these numbers as this is really great data!

I don't know that the demand shifts. Rather I think it indicates the months of delivery batching. Keep in mind orders come in consistently and the deliveries are based on sending cars in production groups out. For instance, many cars destined for Europe began production in December and some will go through Tillburg and others direct so Feb/Mar will look busy but not January.

Regarding cars in cities and pollution - I wonder if cities can use forms of incentives to help this process using car-pooling. It should be a form of safe and effective multi-use of cars to help both with congestion and pollution overall. Single drivers converting to EV is one way to help pollution but not congestion. Both are important to work on. Congestion causes more pollution for those not yet in EVs. Car-pooling and mass transit are really good things to try to get the citizens to use more of.

 

[Troy]

I don't know that the demand shifts. Rather I think it indicates the months of delivery batching. ... Feb/Mar will look busy but not January.

I think chickensevil was talking about April and later months in 2015 compared to 2014. The graph follows a similar shape but the numbers after April have shifted up about 700 units on average. If the same happens in 2016, we might see something like the graph below. The arrows show demand increase. At the end of this year it will be interesting to come back and see if the actual 2016 graph is anything similar to this.

Update: This chart is fictional (Dec 2015 and all 2016 months are made up). Check out the wiki HERE for current charts.

 

[Benz]

278 Tesla Model S deliveries in December 2015 in The Netherlands.

 

[hobbes]

Where's the 2015 Dec number in your plot coming from? Wiki has only NL so far.

- - - Updated - - -

373 registrations in Norway this month as of 12/26, according to MrBacardi

Denmark Dec num on nrpla.de never changed since update a week ago.

 

[SebastianR]

Tesla deliveries for Denmark are 1249 for December (according to Nrpla.de)

 

[Benz]

Tesla deliveries for Denmark are 1249 for December (according to Nrpla.de)

That could be about half of the total European Tesla Model S deliveries, I think.

 

[SebastianR]

That's really amazing! (even if the actual number is 959 - but 10 difference doesn't count). Given this, I guess it is possible to achieve a 1200 to 1400 cars delivered for DEC by the end of the year.

Looks like my "conservative" estimate was not totally off in the end. However, it was still a bit too optimistic. Lessons learned for estimates going forward.

- - - Updated - - -

That could be about half of the total European Tesla Model S deliveries, I think.

Could well be - I guess it also created a lot of demand for the rest of Europe. All used cars seem to have ended up here in DK. Aside from weather I feel like I'm in CA these days there are Model S everywhere here...

 

[Benz]

That could be about half of the total European Tesla Model S deliveries, I think.

The total number of European Tesla Model S deliveries in Q4 2015 will be about 5,000 (I think).

 

[Kim.T]

I don't think 1249 is the final number of Tesla delivered in December in Denmark. November has just been adjusted to 529 - initial number was 465 in early december, and 525 until a few days ago. And they have been extremely busy up to New year.
But Tesla model S was the most sold car in Denmark in December ! The first time an EV is on the top. More that 50% of the EV sold in Denmark in 2015 are Tesla's

 

[SebastianR]

I don't think 1249 is the final number of Tesla delivered in December in Denmark. November has just been adjusted to 529 - initial number was 465 in early december, and 525 until a few days ago. And they have been extremely busy up to New year.
But Tesla model S was the most sold car in Denmark in December ! The first time an EV is on the top. More that 50% of the EV sold in Denmark in 2015 are Tesla's

Let's see. 1249 is already 1 more than the official statement over at De Danske Bilimportører - Presse - Pressemeddelelser vedr. bilsalget