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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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The numbers are very depressed relative to December. This is to be expected, since the tax was raised. However if you ordered your car before the new law was passed in October 2015, the manufacturer has until July 2016 to deliver at the old price. So some of the January Teslas are surely at the old price.

Also, the EU said the original law was unfairly targeting Tesla, and so the actual tax rise is not as high as expected. This news arrived very late though, so it won't have affected December and January sales much.

If I remember correctly, the Danish government decided at the last minute to gradually raise the tax on Teslas, just like for the lower cost EVs. There may have been some EU arm-twisting involved. :wink:

GSP
 
If I remember correctly, the Danish government decided at the last minute to gradually raise the tax on Teslas, just like for the lower cost EVs. There may have been some EU arm-twisting involved. :wink:

GSP

What happened is that the portion of the law that would only affect Teslas is now null and void (the EU said this is unfair so the Danes decided to not implement it). Teslas now become gradually more expensive in line with other EVs in DK. Details in this post.
 
What happened is that the portion of the law that would only affect Teslas is now null and void (the EU said this is unfair so the Danes decided to not implement it). Teslas now become gradually more expensive in line with other EVs in DK. Details in this post.

Thanks for the link to your earlier post. It is very well written and helpful.

GSP

PS. I did remember correctly!
 
Update on German EV incentive: BMW and Audi have reportedly agreed to pay part of it. Chancellor Merkel has issued an ultimatum to the government departments involved, urging them to come up with an agreement by tomorrow, so it seems like she means business - there should be more news soon!

Google Translate
 
Update on German EV incentive: BMW and Audi have reportedly agreed to pay part of it. Chancellor Merkel has issued an ultimatum to the government departments involved, urging them to come up with an agreement by tomorrow, so it seems like she means business - there should be more news soon!

Google Translate


Thanks hobbes - now I'm a bit confused: how would this work? Only Audi & BMW contribute? And then it applies to all cars? Or only their own? Would all car makers need to contribute? What prevents them from increasing prices for the electric cars by the amount they are asked to contribute? Guess there will be more details in tomorrow's paper but this is not clear to me.
 
January 2016 data collection is complete: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
Switzerland´s registration number added today tops the list at 138. Total for Europe is 676 (with UK being a lowball estimate), which compares to 488 in January last year.
Troy prepared a nice plot comparing current data vs. a year ago:

https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACj80Y0gQcnkFZNIoVFfu37QrUcjSpMaKJhS7vvEl50/pubhtml?gid%3D168067794%26single%3Dtrue%26chrome%3Dfalse&sa=D&ust=1455054021180000&usg=AFQjCNGs5RE0wWPsqam9GgTVYEjX5OvrXw
 
Selecting a Model-3 as a company car will be a no-brainer in The Netherlands.

Being offered a company car (that can also be used for private use) as a part of your job offer does not exactly mean you have a free car or even a great deal in The Netherlands, as you will have to pay significant tax from your (after tax) NETT income.

Already relatively many company car & lease car drivers have a Model-S, however base costs and monthly lease price limits what employees are offered an 80k - 100k company car. Model-3 will not only open the floodgates, but be a very big pain for VW, Audi, BMW etc. Specially in the Netherlands with the tax advantages as planned for 2018 it will become very hard for them to sell in the company car segment.

Putting the tax numbers together makes it clear that we will probably see a very significant number of reservations by both companies and fleet lease companies in the Netherlands. They will not want to be late to grab the market by offering Model-3 early.


2018 Typical scenarios for tax comparison based on a company car of Euro 40.000 Ex VAT. (48.400,-- incl VAT).
This is the tax the employee will have to pay for using his company car in private.

Option 1) Gas / Diesel car, taxed at 22% (as of 2017, currently 25%)
This will add Euro 10.648,-- to your taxable income.
Typically this results in Euro 5.244,-- nett tax per year (Euro 437 per month nett).


Option 2) Best PEV (1 - 50 g/km CO2) taxed at - 19% in 2018 (as of 2019 this is 22%)
This will add Euro 9.169,-- to your taxable income. (2019 : Euro 10.648,--)
Typically this results in Euro 4.524,-- nett tax per year in 2018 (Euro nett 377 per month).
In 2019 and later, typically this results in Euro 5.244,-- nett tax per year (Euro 437 per month nett)


Option 3) BEV taxed at 4%
This will add Euro 1.936,-- to your taxable income
Typically this results in Euro 948,-- nett tax per year (Euro nett 79 per month nett).


Imagine your employer offers you a company car, you can choose from several cars in the same class. The private nett costs for you will be Euro 437 for a 'traditional' car or as an alternative Euro 79,-- per month for a Model-3. Absolutely no-brainer for anybody offered a company car to my opinion. I feel it will not even be worth giving options other than a BEV any consideration. Model-3 with SuperCharging is the perfect fit.

Next to that there are also savings for the employer / lease company (lower road tax, lower maintenance cost, lower gas/energy costs), so the ownership costs / monthly lease price will be lower for your employer as well.

In early 2013, before there was ANY Tesla MS imported in Euro, a Dutch lease company already ordered 150 MS in 2013 to take advantage of the (then) 0% private tax for their customers on a BEV. IIRC they added another 100 MS to that fleet order before the end of 2013.


Market size :
The total number of cars sold to companies / non-private in the Netherlands in 2015 was 314.000 (Private segment was 135.000)
(Source RAI - page 12 - 13: https://www.raivereniging.nl/ecm/?i...tore/c2bc95ca-5410-45c3-a082-0af4f85d0d03;1.0 )


Another relevant number could be the total lease market. In Dec 2014 there were a total of 579.000 cars leased in use by companies in The Netherlands. (This number does not include vans and other transport vehicles). Typically Lease cars are replaced after 3 years.


I would not be surprised to see early Model-3 reservations for Fleet Lease companies in the Netherlands for at least 10.000 Model-3. Based on the numbers above I do not dare to estimate what the high-end number could be.
 
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Selecting a Model-3 as a company car will be a no-brainer in The Netherlands.
I don't understand how you have that much money. With almost 2000 Model S sold last year and people maybe otherwise buying a car that's 600€ more per month that's around 15,000,000€ in lost revenue per year. And that's just Teslas.

Or were the taxes always that low and they just increased the ICE ones?
 
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I don't understand how you have that much money. With almost 2000 Model S sold last year and people maybe otherwise buying a car that's 600€ more per month that's around 15,000,000€ in lost revenue per year. And that's just Tesla's.
Or were the taxes always that low and they just increased the ICE ones?

The 25% level mentioned (to be added to your taxable income) is the current 'normal'. For PEVs and BEVs the percentage is lower.
Some of my employees do not want a company car because of this high tax, they rather have a higher salary and no company car. So we rent a car on those occasions the need to travel to a customer.
Other prefer a lower priced car. This can't be good for the economy either.

So it is not realistic to count every Euro tax saved by choosing an EV as lost tax. As a country we also save on oil imports, lower health expenses, reduced noise etc.

The proposed plan is that these percentages will change now according to this table :

Bijtelling.png


Thus selecting a PEV will no longer help, it will have to be a zero emission car for the low tax level on the company car.


(*) Note: Plan is also for 2019 to differentiate on cars above 50K Euro. The part of the catalog price above 50k will then be taxed 22%. So it would be nice to order a 48k (Incl VAT) Tesla, and buy certain options later (SuC activation, Autopilot...).
For some reason FCEV would, according tot eh current plans, not be taxed for the part of the catalog price above 50k.

Some have even suggested starting 2019 Tesla should offer a Base Model-S with 10 kWh battery at 49.995,--, to be upgraded to 90 kWh later.. Creative thought indeed :)
 
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I would not be surprised to see early Model-3 reservations for Fleet Lease companies in the Netherlands for at least 10.000 Model-3. Based on the numbers above I do not dare to estimate what the high-end number could be.

Absolutely. One thing that I am wondering is the number of electric cars the government is expecting in 2018/2019 with their current plans. Offering the 4% rate could quickly become very costly for the government, not to mention the lost revenue from excise taxes on fuel.
 
Selecting a Model-3 as a company car will be a no-brainer in The Netherlands.

What about the opel ampera-e? Wouldn't that benefit from the same rationale? I'm not saying that the model 3 will have competition, since both the opel and tesla will be production constrained, only that the fleet lease companies will start leasing long-range BEV's in 2017, not 2018.
 
What about the opel ampera-e? Wouldn't that benefit from the same rationale? I'm not saying that the model 3 will have competition, since both the opel and tesla will be production constrained, only that the fleet lease companies will start leasing long-range BEV's in 2017, not 2018.

In 2017. Yes, of course that will have a lot of interest. I would be interested to learn when GM / Opel will be ready to export to Europe. Probably GM will prefer to deliver their limited supply of Bolt's in CA for ZEV credits, instead of shipping to NL.

There will be place for both in the market for sure, but at the same price level, who would go for the Bolt / Ampera ? Unless you do not want to wait.

The SuperCharger option would be the decisive differentiating factor.
As far as I am aware of the spec's of the Bolt, it seems there is a maximum of 50 kW for FDC charging. 30 minutes for 90 miles / 144 km.
IMHO, Not good enough to use the car for European vacation / road trips or even Benelux customer visits.

The GM / Opel will possibly sell any Bolt they might make available in NL, as long as the Model-3 is not available. After Model-3 becomes available few will choose the Bolt / Ampera.
 
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Based on the numbers in my earlier post I did one more calculation to show just how big numbers are, and how hard it will be for Tesla to ship enough Model-3's to The Netherlands (and how big the pain will be for BMW, Audi, VW, Ford, Toyota etc, etc in the Netherlands). (See EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 191 )

Based on a typical Euro 40.000 + VAT company car, a business owner or an employee choosing a Model-3 over a gas car will save a significant amount of Tax over the typical Lease / ownership period. This tax advantage is guaranteed for at least 5 years after purchase of the car.

Saving over 3 years (typical lease time) :
36 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 12.888,--

Saving over 5 full years (guaranteed tax advantage period):
60 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 21.488,--

So, just by choosing a BEV like the over a comparable class 'normal' car, saves you total of almost 13k or even more than 21k over the time you use the car. While driving a similar class car.. That is the savings in nett income tax! All "suffering" required is driving Model-3 instead of your typical BMW-3, Audi, VW, Ford or Toyota company car.. That buys many nice vacations & dinners for the effort and 'suffering'.
 
In 2017. Yes, of course that will have a lot of interest. I would be interested to learn when GM / Opel will be ready to export to Europe. Probably GM will prefer to deliver their limited supply of Bolt's in CA for ZEV credits, instead of shipping to NL.

There will be place for both in the market for sure, but at the same price level, who would go for the Bolt / Ampera ? Unless you do not want to wait.

The SuperCharger option would be the decisive differentiating factor.
As far as I am aware of the spec's of the Bolt, it seems there is a maximum of 50 kW for FDC charging. 30 minutes for 90 miles / 144 km.
IMHO, Not good enough to use the car for European vacation / road trips or even Benelux customer visits.

The GM / Opel will possibly sell any Bolt they might make available in NL, as long as the Model-3 is not available. After Model-3 becomes available few will choose the Bolt / Ampera.

That's a good insight. I wonder how many Bolts sales in California is optimal?

But I expect that GM will supply strong Bolt demand anywhere.
 
That's a good insight. I wonder how many Bolts sales in California is optimal?
But I expect that GM will supply strong Bolt demand anywhere.

That depends of course on how many battery packs LG can, and will be willing to, deliver to GM.
Note that LG will not be so keen on building out capacity when they feel the party might be over once the Model-3 production is humming.

(Not to mention how much loss GM is willing to take on the project, if we have to believe Mr. Lutz GM will be taking a loss on every Bolt, so why ship money loosing cars to Europe instead of trading them for ZEV's in CA).