EU Market Situation and Outlook

[pGo]

Thank you hobbes and Wenche for your effort. Appreciate it.

 

[Matias]

å

Today the new danish government issued a statement that the tax-exemption for BEV's will not be extended beyond December 31st, 2015.

This has grave and serious consequences for Tesla in Denmark as their cars are the most expensive BEV's. A 70D will probably see a 50% price increase, while a P85D could see as much as 100-120%.

However the government has not presented the new "all-inclusive" tax model yet so we don't know exactly what kind of tax that a will be due on a Model S. But it is almost certain to be a lot. The danish government does not allow luxury.

If the tax-exemption expires and no reforms are made of the registration-tax-laws then all Tesla sales in Denmark will likely come to a complete stop on the 31st of December.

Source in danish:

Venstre dropper SR's afgiftsfritagelse for elbiler | Ingeniøren

I'm sad to hear that! Keep us informed.

On the brighter side in Finland's car tax for electric cars will 2016-2019 fall a bit, from 5% to 2.7%. Finnish car tax is based on CO2 emissions and can be up to 50% with very high emissions.

 

[matbl]

Swedish number for june '15: 142.
june '14 (for comparison): 45.
Jan-jun '15: 432.

 

[Adm]

The Netherlands:
June '15: 271
Q1 '15: 407
Q2 '15: 477
Q1+Q2 '15: 884

June '14: 182
Q1 '14: 207
Q2 '15: 361
Q1 + Q2: 568

Q1 + Q2: +55.6%

 

[Model 3]

Norway June '15: 566

Added to wiki

 

[svp]

Austria June '15: 83
Updated wiki

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Today the new danish government issued a statement that the tax-exemption for BEV's will not be extended beyond December 31st, 2015.

This has grave and serious consequences for Tesla in Denmark as their cars are the most expensive BEV's. A 70D will probably see a 50% price increase, while a P85D could see as much as 100-120%.

However the government has not presented the new "all-inclusive" tax model yet so we don't know exactly what kind of tax that a will be due on a Model S. But it is almost certain to be a lot. The danish government does not allow luxury.

If the tax-exemption expires and no reforms are made of the registration-tax-laws then all Tesla sales in Denmark will likely come to a complete stop on the 31st of December.

Source in danish:

Venstre dropper SR's afgiftsfritagelse for elbiler | Ingeniøren

The article (I read translated version) does say that they want to raise to continue to promote electric cars, just through "revenue neutral" measures, which would, I guess, mean raising some other car taxes to compensate.

 

[schonelucht]

We are currently about 300 units ahead compared with the first quarter. If everything goes right with remaining larger countries (Germany, Belgium, Danmark, UK) we could end up close to or even slightly over 4000 cars this time around.

 

[hobbes]

The Netherlands:
June '15: 271
Q1 '15: 407
Q2 '15: 477

Looking good... Do you have a source?! Cannot find the number...

 

[hobbes]

We are currently about 300 units ahead compared with the first quarter. If everything goes right with remaining larger countries (Germany, Belgium, Danmark, UK) we could end up close to or even slightly over 4000 cars this time around.

As optimistic as I usually am, I don´t see that... Norway is 390 below last quarter and the other 3 countries that already reported cannot quite make up for that yet. What numbers are you looking at?

 

[schonelucht]

As optimistic as I usually am, I don´t see that... Norway is 390 below last quarter and the other 3 countries that already reported cannot quite make up for that yet. What numbers are you looking at?

Here is the calculation : april versus jan +288; may versus feb up +588; jun versus mar for Norway -574, for the Netherlands +66, for Austria +4; for Sweden +20. Add it all together and we are ahead by 392 now.

 

[hobbes]

Here is the calculation : april versus jan +288; may versus feb up +588; jun versus mar for Norway -574, for the Netherlands +66, for Austria +4; for Sweden +20. Add it all together and we are ahead by 392 now.

O.k., now I get it. But that is assuming all other countries report the same as in March. Not unlikely looking at what we have, but still an assumption... Won´t take long until we know!

 

[Bgarret]

O.k., now I get it. But that is assuming all other countries report the same as in March. Not unlikely looking at what we have, but still an assumption... Won´t take long until we know!

Another way to look at it is that if deliveries to remaining countries were equal to May of 2015, the quarterly result is roughly equal to Q1. Not a stretch since all but Norway have come in +50-100% from May to June (Netherlands, Austria, Sweden). The range to me looks like 3,500-4,000 for Europe in Q2.

 

[hobbes]

Added a few numbers to wiki - most interesting is France, coming in at 132 for June, more than whole Q1 thanks to Le Superbonus! Think supercharger rollout there has helped also.

 

[VolkerP]

June in Germany is 224. All time record month!

There were 6 cars wrecked in a truck crash, hours before reaching the service center. :crying:

 

[hobbes]

Cool, that brings us to 3524 for the quarter, topping Q1´s 3490 while still missing Switzerland and Denmark .

Too bad about those crashed cars, especially for those who have been waiting for theirs - hopefully Tesla will put them first in line for a new one!

 

[Johann Koeber]

June in Germany is 224. All time record month!

There were 6 cars wrecked in a truck crash, hours before reaching the service center. :crying:

I just passed a truck with 6 Model S on the Autobahn near Bonn.

Not sure if they are the replacement ones.

 

[SebastianR]

In Denmark, the June data is interesting: Tesla sold more Model S (June: 160) than Audi sold A6 (June: 118) - even if you compare the full first quarter Tesla (Q1: 511) is only a few cars behind Audi A6 (Q1: 565) - that's quite amazing! And don't bother looking for the A8, A7, A5 or any of the Porsche cars - they are all left in the dust long time ago (same goes for Mercedes E-Class (June: 114) , BMW 5-Series (June: 27))

It is a small country and a specific situation but still I think that's quite amazing.

Of course, there is lots of uncertainty with the tax going forward, but I assume the rest of the year (while the tax breaks are still there) will be huge for Tesla in Denmark.

 

[svp]

The last "big" number outside of UK came out finally - Switzerland. And it's a big one - 253.
Even assuming low 200 for UK for the quarter, which is in the table right now, Q2 in Europe is 3909 vs. 3404 in Q1, 15% up.
If we exclude Norway, it's 2767 in Q2 vs. 1958 in Q1. More than 40% up!
Elon did speak about "amazing" demand in Europe, looks like awareness and acceptance of Tesla brand is increasing. I think outside Norway and Netherlands, it's still far from saturation, especially markets that started picking up relatively recently - France, Sweden, Finland, Italy, ..

 

[Ingenieur]

I would like to point out that majority of the cars delivered in Q2 was backlog of S85D/P85D orders from Q4 2014, i expect to see just 2000-2500 in Q3 unless Tesla announces Major changes soon that will still be deliverable in Q3.
Feel free to timestamp this post.