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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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France 56. Compares with 53 for July. At current trend we should expect between 1000 and 1200 deliveries for October in Europe.

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I personally have heard of two older model S's being exported from the Netherlands to Denmark last month. Do we know if the Danish new registration numbers include these cars or not? Normally I'd expect this kind of export to get lost in the noise but it might be significant enough for Denmark in the last quarter of this year to impact our estimate on new car deliveries by Tesla. Does anyone have an idea how to account for this?
 
Well, technically every car has to be registered for the first time somewhere in Europe. If the cars you have mentioned had been registered in the Netherlands before, they are considered "used" and no longer "brand-new". If the cars were just standing on the lot and got then exported to Denmark, I suppose they'll be getting their first registration in Denmark and thereby appear in the official Danish statistics.

Austria October: 36 (+1800% yoy) (no typo)

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France 56. Compares with 53 for July.

and this is +2800% yoy for France. :)
 
There has to be some problems in Spain. Supercharger permits have been slow. Elon said they would have the route to madrid and almost all spain covered by 2015, and he said that in 2014. No it seems that it will be next year, I doubt they will manage to cover it in 2 months.
 
Well, technically every car has to be registered for the first time somewhere in Europe. If the cars you have mentioned had been registered in the Netherlands before, they are considered "used" and no longer "brand-new". If the cars were just standing on the lot and got then exported to Denmark, I suppose they'll be getting their first registration in Denmark and thereby appear in the official Danish statistics.

Are we sure only never-registered cars are counted in those statistics for Denmark? For example, in the Netherlands the numbers do include used cars from abroad since it's just the number of new Dutch registration plates issued for a certain brand.

Austria October: 36 (+1800% yoy) (no typo)
and this is +2800% yoy for France. :)

I understand we desperately need some positive news but I think we are deluding ourselves with y-o-y growth numbers, especially for small markets like France and Austria that only recently matured. As in investor, I am interested in past growth performance in so far it will allow me to estimate what future growth is going to be. For markets like Norway, California or Norway y-o-y numbers are therefore meaningful, but not so for Austria or France. For the latter I much prefer to use q-o-q growth numbers.
 
Are we sure only never-registered cars are counted in those statistics for Denmark? For example, in the Netherlands the numbers do include used cars from abroad since it's just the number of new Dutch registration plates issued for a certain brand.



I understand we desperately need some positive news but I think we are deluding ourselves with y-o-y growth numbers, especially for small markets like France and Austria that only recently matured. As in investor, I am interested in past growth performance in so far it will allow me to estimate what future growth is going to be. For markets like Norway, California or Norway y-o-y numbers are therefore meaningful, but not so for Austria or France. For the latter I much prefer to use q-o-q growth numbers.

Nope, it's not about good news or a delusion. It's simple auto industry 101. Q-o-q comparisons don't matter really. Just check the standard pattern of quartely Tesla sales/deliveries in Europe, for instance. Q3 has always been the lowest and Q4 the highest. You see similar patterns with other auto companies which dispatch their orders and deliver in certain patterns throughout the year. What really matters, is the y-o-y growth rate within the quarter. Of course, the percentages of growth in smaller and/or developing markets are much bigger than in larger or saturated markets but keeping the sizes in mind, the percentages are quite helpful to illustrate the past growth in sales.

I mean, if you step back and evaluate your stance again, you can't seriously think y-o-y growth doesn't matter. First, it makes a whole lot of a difference from an investor's standpoint if you sell just 2 cars in October of a year (see pattern argument above) or 56 cars in the same month one year later. Second, you'd probably be the first moaning if y-o-y sales numbers were declining because y-o-y growth (and the speed of growth) does matter a lot to Tesla investors. It's an important indicator of expansion into new / within small markets.

Furthermore, you might well remember but some other readers might have forgotten where we were just one year ago with regards to sales in Europe. That's again an important argument for reminding us of the past year.

Where I'd agree, is that y-o-y comparisons of monthly deliveries are less interesting than y-o-y comparisons of the same quarter. Looking forward to compara Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. In the end, this is what matters the most if you're looking for meeting the 50-55k guidance.
 
I understand we desperately need some positive news but I think we are deluding ourselves with y-o-y growth numbers, especially for small markets like France and Austria that only recently matured. As in investor, I am interested in past growth performance in so far it will allow me to estimate what future growth is going to be. For markets like Norway, California or Norway y-o-y numbers are therefore meaningful, but not so for Austria or France. For the latter I much prefer to use q-o-q growth numbers.

Nope, it's not about good news or a delusion. It's simple auto industry 101. Q-o-q comparisons don't matter really. Just check the standard pattern of quartely Tesla sales/deliveries in Europe, for instance. Q3 has always been the lowest and Q4 the highest. You see similar patterns with other auto companies which dispatch their orders and deliver in certain patterns throughout the year. What really matters, is the y-o-y growth rate within the quarter. Of course, the percentages of growth in smaller and/or developing markets are much bigger than in larger or saturated markets but keeping the sizes in mind, the percentages are quite helpful to illustrate the past growth in sales.

I mean, if you step back and evaluate your stance again, you can't seriously think y-o-y growth doesn't matter. First, it makes a whole lot of a difference from an investor's standpoint if you sell just 2 cars in October of a year (see pattern argument above) or 56 cars in the same month one year later. Second, you'd probably be the first moaning if y-o-y sales numbers were declining because y-o-y growth (and the speed of growth) does matter a lot to Tesla investors. It's an important indicator of expansion into new / within small markets.

Furthermore, you might well remember but some other readers might have forgotten where we were just one year ago with regards to sales in Europe. That's again an important argument for reminding us of the past year.

Where I'd agree, is that y-o-y comparisons of monthly deliveries are less interesting than y-o-y comparisons of the same quarter. Looking forward to compara Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. In the end, this is what matters the most if you're looking for meeting the 50-55k guidance.

Imho both points of view have merit and are not mutually exclusive.

I agree with schonelucht that absolute numbers in some new markets are quite small, thus diminishing the relevance of stratospheric y-o-y growth in these markets.

I also agree with Newb that large y-o-y growth is informative, regardless of the small absolute number of sales in some markets.

As the absolute number of sales grows in some markets, the relative y-o-y growth number will drop from stratospheric % to more earthly bound %

As long as all these numbers are going up, we'll all be happy
 
At current trend we should expect between 1000 and 1200 deliveries for October in Europe.

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nice. you were quite right with your estimate.

I've checked the number of new registrations in Germany in October and based on the table of "main country of origin" I calculated an estimate of Model S registrations there. It's only Jeep, Chevrolet and Cadillac which sell U.S. cars apart from Tesla. So my estimate is that there were around 125-145 new Model S registered in October. But, we'll have a definite number by the end of the week.

EDIT: thanks hobbes. Let me explain how you can estimate the Model S registration numbers in Germany a few days earlier (we don't have to enter such numbers in the wiki, just want to share how I've done it). The official administration KBA has a three-step-process to release monthly registrations numbers. 1. During the first three days of a given month, you get the press release with information on total EVs and PHEVs registered. Under "diagrams" you find registrations of cars from selected brands (Tesla should be in this table from January on, thus we'll be much quicker with posting official numbers next year). 2. KBA regularly releases another piece of information on registrations 1-3 days after that, which they call "Neuzulassungsbarometer". Here you can find a table with number of cars registered by country of origin. 3. Then, a couple of days later, you get the full picture with detailed statistics on every brand and every model. | Now, it's possible to estimate Model S reg numbers by employing information from step 1 and 2. First, you add numbers of Chevrolet and Jeep from step 1 and subtract that sum from the sum of cars from the U.S. (from step 2). Subtract another 40-80 cars for Cadillac and other U.S. cars and you have your quite close estimate of Model S registrations for October. Frankly, you just win a few days, but in the news world this is a huge advantage.
 
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Was just checking the google sheet - lots of new numbers, great. But one thing I would like to say: There have been estimates coming in with no link to how they were made. That is of no value. One even didn´t have a log entry in addition, removed that one, the other one just had a link which had nothing to do with the estimate, changed that link. Please make estimates for countries that we don´t get numbers for or where we have very good inofficial numbers (think of Norway) and explain your estimate in a post and link it, but otherwise, I´d like it better to wait a few days and have good data than speculation with no info how it was made up. Thanks.
 
hobbes, thanks again for your management of the wiki. I've added an explanation in my post above which is linked to the estimate for Germany. But I'm fine with just posting that estimate in the thread and wait for the final numbers to enter those in the wiki.

EDIT: Numbers are out. 121 in October. Not fantastic, but not bad either, given there were only 17 new registrations in October 2014.
 
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hobbes, thanks again for your management of the wiki. I've added an explanation in my post above which is linked to the estimate for Germany. But I'm fine with just posting that estimate in the thread and wait for the final numbers to enter those in the wiki.

EDIT: Numbers are out. 121 in October. Not fantastic, but not bad either, given there were only 17 new registrations in October 2014.


THX for your and everyone else´s help, too.

Likely with the so-so European numbers this month it will be just like last quarter, when EU was 600 down over Q2 but worlwide was flat, likely just more cars going to China instead. Also, this Q I expect more of a end of quarter push again.

Update from MrBacardi as of today: 24 in Norway in the first week of Oct, in line with last month when there were 21 at this point.
 
Have the EV incentives ended or decreased in Norway? The sales have slowed down quite a bit (Q1 1532, Q2 1142, Q3 569). So far, Q4 is also looking similar to Q3.
Nope, but the price of oil has crashed and most of Norway's GDP and many people's income is directly or indirectly dependent on oil. How is that for a paradox? Oil gets cheaper, Tesla sales decrease because people who make money on oil can't buy Teslas?

PS: Plus, as far as we know Tesla has been prioritizing China deliveries a little bit last quarter.