EU Q2 delivery numbers will be probably disappointing compared to 2015. However, virtually no Model X-es have been delivered in EU yet. Current expectation seems to be that most of the pre-ordered ones will see delivery in Q3. A peak in deliveries in Q3 could pretty much compensate for weak numbers in Q2.
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Submitted the numbers + a few others to the wiki. Can someone please crosscheck and approve?! Thanks.
I agree the Q2 focus will be model X and Tesla should meet 17K guidance. But the concern is EU's model S demand is flat or declining on QoQ and YoY, even the similar pattern shown in NA model S sales on QoQ. The only exception might be just China market which has smaller base.
One thought... Where are the CPO going? If Tesla sent many US cpo returns over to Europe, since they can be imported into areas with low to no taxation, that could be a weight against new vehicle sales. And yet that gets more EVs into Europe where they can help work against high petrol prices.
dc_h
Active Member
Once again, you do not know DEMAND, only Tesla does. We will be able to get a peak at global demand based on the customer deposits in the Q2 ER, but even that will be global demand for all Tesla models - S, X and 3.
What you are seeing evidence of is Tesla production batching. They were favoring North America X reservations this quarter to lock down long term reservation holders, prove to the world and wavering X reservation holders that the X is now free of issues and coming in large quantities and still meet Q2 deliveries.
S and X EU demand may or may not be declining, but you can't make that call based on a single quarter of deliveries into this market. Having said that, changes of local tax policies in Norway and Denmark will surely have a negative impact on demand in Europe, then again the S had an abnormally high number of deliveries in those countries compared to in-class models from other manufacturers.
Agree completely. Now that production is running smoothely again we will see more deliveries to EU next quarter. Q2 had problems with X in the beginning and S redesign, so if demand from US was great, they might have shipped less to EU. Also, many one-time factors like taxing in Denmark, upcoming incentives in Germany people are waiting for, people waiting for Xs instead of buying an S. I don´t see a reason why demand should be down generally in EU if it seems to be flourishing in US.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Good f'ing grief. Read the GD notes on the Tesla press release.
The problem is production not demand.
But they exited the quarter "consistently producing just under 2000 vehicles per week."
Rob - the vin numbers being issued on the forums showed that just under 1000 Model S vin numbers per-week were issued in May and June. April was about 1250/week and was the new front-end and new feature cars including what I imagine a whole new set of replacement demos for world consumption. So, it may be suggested that they are just building Model X backlog faster. Those Vin #s are not always built immediately and as we know, some inventory and demos are built first before customer cars thus leading to this quarter's specific problem of inventory and demos reaching sales sites before customer cars near the end of the quarter. That is bad planning.
But what is the order rates of each? This is never known. I cannot believe Model X orders incoming is above Model S. The target market (working fellas with good income) is more fitting for the Model S.
But what is the order rates of each? This is never known. I cannot believe Model X orders incoming is above Model S. The target market (working fellas with good income) is more fitting for the Model S.
Why wouldn't they send used CPO USA cars to Europe? Charger configuration? You can import used EVs into Norway without tax implications. Isn't Norway a good market? How about where you are in Holland?
The chargers are different, as you pointed out. I think there are other minor differences too because of different regulations.
So yes, there are a bunch of changes needed for regulatory approval, there are the chargers, there is the cost of shipping the vehicle and finally the added depreciation from being stored 2 months in a container instead of being available for purchase. Nothing is impossible, but if it had happened, we would have had known about it.
Norway was 285 for June, down from 487 q-o-q and down from 566 last year. Not surprising now we know what happened in April and May production wise. Saving grace : July could be better than usual due to some model Xs on a boat somewhere that were meant to be delivered last month instead.
The charge port is different due to europe being 3-phase and usa being monophase. I went to a Tesla event two weeks ago where they presented the Model X. However this was a us model and they could only charge it via a US Chademo adapter.
I explicitly asked wether it was road legal and they said yes. The X had german license plates.
The connector is a Type 2 connector. I think that's different than what's used in the US. This connector support 3 phase AC, while the US connector only supports monofase. So the connector on the car is physically different.
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