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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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If this was the case market share would never change.

It does change.

Tesla has 3.5% market share in Norway and 1.8% market share in CA.

Ten years ago Tesla had 0% market share.

Next year Tesla will have over 3.5% market share in CA surpassing BMW and Audi and maybe MB.

In 2019 Tesla will have at least 5% market share in Norway.

Just to reiterate, never did I say that Tesla wouldn't gain more market share.

My initital post was in answer to the remark by @mrdoubleb that
"Every time i see a chart like that, I keep thinking: these guys should enjoy this while it lasts! We all know how next year is going to look like."

Which to me implied that sales of the Model 3 next year in Europe would be through the roof.
Of course there will be an initial surge due to two and a half years of accumulated reservations, but that doesn't show or indicate the true annual demand from 2020 onwards. This remains to be seen and no one truly knows how those sales figures will turn out.

Plus, you quoted markets that strongly favor BEVs over ICE vehicles. Even though the environment for BEVs is getting more favorable in many other markets as well, the general market share of BEVs in most markets is still miniscule compared to Diesel and gasoline vehicles, Dieselgate notwithstanding.
 
This remains to be seen and no one truly knows how those sales figures will turn out.

Didn't you just claim to know how sales figures will turn out ? At least in part with legacy manufactures on top.

Sales figures are predicated on capacity.

And no one else has the capacity to be on top next year.

Jaguar got orders for 20k iPace from Waymo plus ~13k from others.

Magna Steyer Austria has produced and Jaguar have delivered less than 800 so far.

We know demand is not a problem.
 
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No, I didn't. At least not to my knowledge - or intention.


Of course not, but I am considering that people tend to go for what they like best, and most people tend to prefer what they already know, meaning a lot will rather go for a BEV by a legacy automaker. The general car buying public isn't like "us" Tesla "fanboys"/specialists you know.

So the general car buying public will prefer a BEV from a legacy brand.

Teslas will be purchased by fanboys/specialist.

This isn't a sales prediction on who will be on top of the sales charts?
 
You really have a habit of reading way too much into general comments.
Read what I wrote.

I said "people tend to...", which has been my observation for many years.
I did not say "people will only buy from legacy automakers".
I did not say "nobody will buy a Model 3".
I said "a lot will rather go for...", which indeed is my prediction based on what I observe around me.
It does not imply what you read into it.

What I meant was that I don't agree with @mrdoubleb in that we already know what will happen next year.
 
What I meant was that I don't agree with @mrdoubleb in that we already know what will happen next year.

"Most people will buy from legacy brands.

Most people are not like us Tesla fanboys/specialist."

It does take a lot of inferring.

Demand for EVs will exceed supply.

Sales will roughly correspond to production. If people intend to buy brand X but it is not available but brand Y does have a BEV available some will switch and some will wait, but there will be some shifting.

Based on battery cell capacity and ramp ups it is not to hard to make reasonable projections on sales next year. And no projections are not clairvoyant visions of the future.
 
SE.PNG


EV Sales: Sweden September 2018

12% PEV share for September
 
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Google Oversetter
Tesla Model X was Norway's best-selling car in September

And almost half of all sold cars were electric cars.

"The car market in September was very special, a new Norway record and a new world record were introduced in the sale of electric cars," said Øyvind Solberg Thorsen, director of the Road Traffic Advisory Council.

The electric cars had a market share of 45.3 per cent in September. Including used imports, the proportion was 47.7 per cent.

(Note: When we are talking about "electric cars" we are talking about BEV, not just EV).
 
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So Friday I was at the Paris Motor show to take my fist live look at the Tesla Model 3. Must day it didn´t disappoint! As others have said, it looks much better in person than in pictures. Very clean and elegant lines on the outside, including the front that I wasn´t 100% sure about. I am 6 ft 1 in/186 cm and fit perfectly in the front seats. In the back my head is somewhat close to the roof, but just ok. Also with my legs were above the rear seat so no perfect support. I sat in many other cars of similar size though including BMW 3 series and both things happened in most of them, so nothing Model 3 specific. Otherwise it made a very solid impression.

There were lots of people in line all the time though it was a weekday (my guess would be 20-30 people, 20-30 min wait), but as a reservation holder you could skip the line to get near the car. Very well managed. That was while they actually placed two of each Model S and X much more prominently to attract the masses.

The two representatives I talked to (independently) at first were very nice but I think I knew more about the car :). The Model 3 was the US version, charge port was closed (probably not to confuse anyone to think it didn´t have a Type 2 connector). Sounded like they had heard the question on whether the European version would have CCS before, but didn´t have an answer, said they didn´t know and I believe them. Later I talked to a guy who was much more knowledgeable about the car overall, turned out to be a head technical guy in a service center. Asked him about CCS, too, but he wasn´t even aware of the situation that CCS was the standard pushed by the EU and Germany having put it into law already (possibly) limiting Tesla from building new Superchargers without CCS :confused:.
So @NicoV , unfortunately no news to share here.

Funny story developed when I walked up to the iPace at the Jaguar stand right next to Tesla (no line there). Jag guy came up to me and asked me if I was interested in the car, I replied I was generally interested in EVs and also had a Model 3 reservation. This must have rang some bell, 5 min later I had an appointment for a test drive scheduled :). Was fun driving through Paris in a quick EV though I would have much preferred testing the Model 3 ;). What I didn´t like was the two selectable regen settings - the high was a bit too strong (much more than what I am used from the Renault Zoe I drive mostly and the Teslas I have driven) though I generally like regen not to be too weak. The weak setting on the other hand resembled what a gas car would do, so hardly any slow down at all (probably to appeal to people who are not used to EVs). Likely for the same reason the car has an optional engine sound o_O which I find ridiculous. Also all those buttons...

Looked at a lot of other EVs - I think the Renault (ZoE) and the Koreans are on the best track with the Hyundai Ioniq, Kona and KIA Niro, which all have a good range for a decent price. They are solid offerings in the price range of the cheapest Model 3 when it becomes available but nothing exciting about them otherwise, just regular cars which happen to be electric.