EU Market Situation and Outlook

[sweter]

Visitors in various cities confirmed that the display Model 3's are all US versions...

BUT this happened this morning:

Tesla to open up CCS fast charging for European Model 3, Model S and Model X

EDIT: Actually a better link to the full interview with Drew Bennet, head of global charging infrastructure: Tesla Model 3 to feature CCS charging in Europe

 

[jbih]

Visitors in various cities confirmed that the display Model 3's are all US versions...

BUT this happened this morning:

Tesla to open up CCS fast charging for European Model 3, Model S and Model X

EDIT: Actually a better link to the full interview with Drew Bennet, head of global charging infrastructure: Tesla Model 3 to feature CCS charging in Europe

I wonder if they'll keep the old network as a premium, non-congested network. Since they're retrofitting existing chargers with two cables, I think future model S/X will use CCS2, though.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla to open up CCS fast charging for European Model 3, Model S and Model X

“We’ll be continuing to invest in our network – that’s a huge part of the ownership experience. But we’ll be enabling our owners to have access to the CCS networks that are starting to grow in Europe, so the Model 3 will have a charge port for the CCS standard and we’ll also have an adaptor for Model S and X."

I thought adaptors were not allowed by CCS governing body?

 

[RobStark]

Most Automotive Brand Google searches by Country ( and select territories)

The battle of the car brands - Select Car Leasing

Tesla tops in

Norway
Austria (tied with BMW)
Lichtenstein
Jersey(UK)
Isle of Man (UK)
Faroe Islands(Denmark)

I would think Tesla is Top 3 in The Netherlands,Belgium and Luxembourg.

No data in Switzerland.

VW tops in France,Spain,and Italy instead of national brands.

 

[Model 3]

Austria (tied with BMW)

No data in Switzerland.

Are you sure about that?

To me it's looks like one of the "Austria" balloons (the Tesla one) points to Switzerland, so I guess it should have been Switzerland instead.

 

[RobStark]

Are you sure about that?

To me it's looks like one of the "Austria" balloons (the Tesla one) points to Switzerland, so I guess it should have been Switzerland instead.

 

[AustinPowers]

VW tops in France,Spain,and Italy instead of national brands.

Interesting for France, because I would have thought the French being so proud of their companies would never ever buy more German cars than their own makes.

Italy, well we all know the answer to that one.

And Spain, I would wager to guess that most of those "VW" are actually Seat, which in turn are of course owned by VW. Otoh, Skoda being mentioned as a separate make in Estonia kind of invalidates my idea.

And did anyone notice Albania???

 

[RobStark]

Interesting for France, because I would have thought the French being so proud of their companies would never ever buy more German cars than their own makes.

Italy, well we all know the answer to that one.

And Spain, I would wager to guess that most of those "VW" are actually Seat, which in turn are of course owned by VW. Otoh, Skoda being mentioned as a separate make in Estonia kind of invalidates my idea.

And did anyone notice Albania???

These are Google searches by brand not sales by company.

Estonia most popularly searched brand is Skoda, a VW brand.

If Spain searched SEAT the most it would show as SEAT not VW.

A lot of poor countries show Lamborghini as the most searched brand, Pakistan for example.

It is just fantasy window shopping,like Ferrari in Albania.

BTW is Google not very popular in France, do they have a native search site that is much more popular?

 

[AustinPowers]

Thanks for the heads-up, it turns out I misunderstood the original graphic. I mixed it up with the link below and thought it showed the most popular leasing make for each country. Mybad.

 

[replicant]

I would think Tesla is Top 3 in The Netherlands,Belgium and Luxembourg.

No data in Switzerland.

VW tops in France,Spain,and Italy instead of national brands.

It's quite easy to verify these numbers

NL: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NL&q=/m/0dr90d,/m/052mx
BL: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=BE&q=/m/0dr90d,/m/052mx
LU: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=LU&q=/m/0dr90d,/m/052mx

Results for France is weird, I get Renault well ahead of VW: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=FR&q=/m/07ywl,/m/015k42
Idem with Fiat in Italy: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=IT&q=/m/07ywl,/m/04n3_w4

Mercedes more searched than Mercedes in Switzerland https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=CH&q=/m/0dr90d,/m/052mx

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is tied with BMW for PEV market share in Switzerland at 17% each.

EV Sales: Switzerland October 2018

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is starting to made headway in Italy.

EV Sales: Italy October 2018

* 14th place is a mistake. It probably should be Porsche Cayenne PHEV. As Panamera PHEV is in 7th spot.

 

[Brando]

comparing TOTAL REVENUE as well as UNIT SALES - I always appreciate both shown together

LEAF near $52 million using US msrp of $40,000 1257 units
Tesla near $57 million using US msrp of $150,000 382 units

try your own estimated costs

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe October 2018

 

[mrdoubleb]

EV Sales: Europe October 2018

@hobbes @Troy

Interesting to compare this YTD data with our own. There may be a slight difference between the list of countries we track / have data on vs. what they do. Also some of our data is an estimation: UK, until it gets corrected each quarter, the "other countries", and the Model S/X split in some countries.

• On Model S we have 12,804, they have 12,551. A difference of 253, or about 2%. Looks great.
• On Model X we gave 9,704, they have 9377. A difference of 327, or about 3%. Not bad.

Overall, I think our numbers are solid.

 

[hobbes]

Cross-posting this post from @avoigt here because it is even more relevant to EU market:

Dutch Government supports further EV incentives. € 6k additional subsidies. Bravo!

Thats great news for Tesla in a country where their cars are very popular already. Each time I am there I am just stunned how many I see driving....

Alp Soycengiz on Twitter

The tweet also says that the incentives for EVs drop in January 2019 (which I knew, this is why Teslas have been selling like crazy in NL lately) but only for cars above 50,000 EUR (which I didn´t know).

This is interesting with reagard to which versions of Model 3 Tesla will bring to market in Europe. I assume they will try to have one that is below that limit. That would most likely be the midrange. Do you think that they will offer the same versions all over Europe? Or might they offer the midrange only in NL due to the subsidy situation there?

My guess up to now was they´d just sell the LR AWD first, as it seems the US demand for that has slowed a bit and is replaced with the midrange. However, I´d like the LR RWD best, but they are not currently producing it...

What is your take on which versions we´ll see first in Europe with regard to

• keeping production simple
• making as much money as possible world wide given production and demand constraints
• local subsidy situation?

 

[Brando]

reminder: Tesla builds what people order.

 

[avoigt]

Cross-posting this post from @avoigt here because it is even more relevant to EU market:



The tweet also says that the incentives for EVs drop in January 2019 (which I knew, this is why Teslas have been selling like crazy in NL lately) but only for cars above 50,000 EUR (which I didn´t know).

This is interesting with reagard to which versions of Model 3 Tesla will bring to market in Europe. I assume they will try to have one that is below that limit. That would most likely be the midrange. Do you think that they will offer the same versions all over Europe? Or might they offer the midrange only in NL due to the subsidy situation there?

My guess up to now was they´d just sell the LR AWD first, as it seems the US demand for that has slowed a bit and is replaced with the midrange. However, I´d like the LR RWD best, but they are not currently producing it...

What is your take on which versions we´ll see first in Europe with regard to

• keeping production simple
• making as much money as possible world wide given production and demand constraints
• local subsidy situation?

I talked lately to a Sales Manager in Germany a week ago and he agreed that the P3D will be first. I assume that he knows as much as we do though. IOW its not guaranteed but makes business sense to me. Also you want the fastest top tier model to be out first with people looking at it making them want to buy it and to set expectations.

However if the demand is not high enough in Europe I would assume they go with the AWD LR too. The Lemur will have high demand in Europe for sure but I expect them to bring this at a later stage to the market.

Also in Europe they assemble just the battery and the motors in the car and thats it in terms of assembly. Having different versions makes that process more complex and you want to scale up step by step to avoid issues.

With regards to the NL subsidies I do not expect them to offer a car/version in one EU country but not the other. The plan is to bring EVs to the masses and medium / small income households for that reasons subsidies are welcome of course.

My view is that subsidies for EVs are an attempt to acknowledge and recognize that they do not pollute and do the damage a gas car does including associated costs to society. Therefore it would be better in my eyes to have an additional x% environment & pollution tax on gas cars instead of incentives for EVs. That would help making car buyers think twice.

 

[Cobos]

Also in Europe they assemble just the battery and the motors in the car and thats it in terms of assembly. Having different versions makes that process more complex and you want to scale up step by step to avoid issues.

With regards to the NL subsidies I do not expect them to offer a car/version in one EU country but not the other. The plan is to bring EVs to the masses and medium / small income households for that reasons subsidies are welcome of course.

My view is that subsidies for EVs are an attempt to acknowledge and recognize that they do not pollute and do the damage a gas car does including associated costs to society. Therefore it would be better in my eyes to have an additional x% environment & pollution tax on gas cars instead of incentives for EVs. That would help making car buyers think twice.

I do see that having several models available at start will complicate things, but due to the 1,5 year delay on the delivery in Europe I think they should probably have some mix. And especially if it turns out due to incentives there is a massive price difference in Netherlands between a Lemur and LR AWD it makes sense to exclusively launch the Lemur in Netherlands and do P3D only everywhere else. And a quarter or two later they will sel Lemurs everywhere anyway.
Norways incentives are exactly as you ask for. There are little direct subsidies on EVs noone actually gets a check, but EVs are exempt from the heavy pollution/luxury tax (or extra-money-to-the-state-tax as some call it) and sales tax. The result is that an e-Golf with quite a lot of upgrades as standard more or less matches a completely stripped gasoline Golf.

 

[avoigt]

I do see that having several models available at start will complicate things, but due to the 1,5 year delay on the delivery in Europe I think they should probably have some mix. And especially if it turns out due to incentives there is a massive price difference in Netherlands between a Lemur and LR AWD it makes sense to exclusively launch the Lemur in Netherlands and do P3D only everywhere else. And a quarter or two later they will sel Lemurs everywhere anyway.
Norways incentives are exactly as you ask for. There are little direct subsidies on EVs noone actually gets a check, but EVs are exempt from the heavy pollution/luxury tax (or extra-money-to-the-state-tax as some call it) and sales tax. The result is that an e-Golf with quite a lot of upgrades as standard more or less matches a completely stripped gasoline Golf.

Based on a study from 2013 5 - 15 Euro cent environmental costs are created with ever km driven by an ICE car. So its the right approach to put a malus of those car drivers:

Folgekosten des Verkehrs: Autofahren ist viel zu billig

I have a different view on the NL and if Tesla will deliver the MR and a mix at day one but time will tell.