EU Market Situation and Outlook

[hobbes]

From most searched brand to most sold car in 3 months - this is indeed quite the milestone (even if it just for the last month of the quarter with the wave still going strong..):

EV revolution hits new milestone as Tesla Model 3 becomes Europe’s best-selling car in September - JATO

The Tesla Model 3 topped the European model rankings in September. It's the first time that an EV leads the market.

www.jato.com

Hat tip to @jw934 Wiki - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[replicant]

German transport minister reverses from 15M EV goal

Germany will count hybrid cars as part of the government's target to boost the number of electric vehicles on the road.

europe.autonews.com

 

[hobbes]

German transport minister reverses from 15M EV goal

Germany will count hybrid cars as part of the government's target to boost the number of electric vehicles on the road.

europe.autonews.com

Interesting I find this as I am about to post about something else - just recently the German minister for economy and climate protection (new combination in the new federal government, green minister Robert Habeck unlike the transportation minister from the liberal democrats) posted a draft for next year´s update to the EV incentive program - if this comes to pass only BEVs would be subsidized! Quite the opposite from the above.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514647630390964232

This went under the radar, I only heard about it from the nextnews podcast:

Other relevant stuff in this draft though like a new upper limit at 65,000 EUR which sounds good at first, but now includes everything (options, taxes - limit was just for the base price before). As of current prices, Model 3/Y LR AWD with color/wheel change would make it, M 3/Y P not. So cannot call this anti Tesla.

 

[hobbes]

I just checked @mrdoubleb 's submission of April numbers for our registrations wiki (see my footer) and realized that the Netherlands had 1 S and 1 X registration this month . @Troy to you think this could have something to do with S/X resuming in Europe? I saw you´re expecting that only in Q4.. (I checked, theses are only new registrations according to the BOVAG website where we get the numbers).

 

[mrdoubleb]

I just checked @mrdoubleb 's submission of April numbers for our registrations wiki (see my footer) and realized that the Netherlands had 1 S and 1 X registration this month . @Troy to you think this could have something to do with S/X resuming in Europe? I saw you´re expecting that only in Q4.. (I checked, theses are only new registrations according to the BOVAG website where we get the numbers).

Yes, I have noticed this as well. One explanation could be Tesla HQ - located in the Netherlands - importing a few cars, maybe for homologation purposes, but I am not sure if those get registered the normal way if they are only manufacturers' test vehicles and are not commercially sold. But, alternatively, these could be private imports by a couple of impatient but wealthy Europeans as well.

Would love to hear what Troy thinks.

 

[hobbes]

Yes, I have noticed this as well. One explanation could be Tesla HQ - located in the Netherlands - importing a few cars, maybe for homologation purposes, but I am not sure if those get registered the normal way if they are only manufacturers' test vehicles and are not commercially sold. But, alternatively, these could be private imports by a couple of impatient but wealthy Europeans as well.

Would love to hear what Troy thinks.

Yeah, was thinking about the same lines. If it was privat imports it could have been any country though, NL smells a bit like it Tesla related.

Maybe it is possible they went through homologation and can afterwards be registered and driven by engineers for real world testing (supercharging would be different) and fun. I´ll keep my eyes open for S/X going over 250 km/h on the freeway ...

BTW, will S and X still go through Tilburg for tax reasons? I forgot if they stopped already a while ago... but than again they haven´t been available for a while also...

 

[Troy]

Yes, I have noticed this as well. One explanation could be Tesla HQ - located in the Netherlands - importing a few cars, maybe for homologation purposes, but I am not sure if those get registered the normal way if they are only manufacturers' test vehicles and are not commercially sold. But, alternatively, these could be private imports by a couple of impatient but wealthy Europeans as well.

Would love to hear what Troy thinks.

They have something called Type Approval in Europe which happens in the Netherlands. Here is an example for Model 3 in the past: UPDATE: Tesla Autopilot Approved Europe It could be related to that. However, S/X registrations were never zero. If we look at Q3 and Q4 2021 and then to Q1 2022, there were always 1 or 2 registrations somewhere.

 

[petit_bateau]

The UNESCE type approval for Europe used to be in NL because the Tesla Tilburg facility was in NL. And there are good tax reasons why corporate structures keep group holding companies (or sub group) I'm NL.

However now that Berlin is running and given its scale, the type approval (aka homologation) for all models may switch to Germany. Ditto the corporate structure may get rewired.

But do we have any firm evidence either way ?

 

[mrdoubleb]

The UNESCE type approval for Europe used to be in NL because the Tesla Tilburg facility was in NL. And there are good tax reasons why corporate structures keep group holding companies (or sub group) I'm NL.

However now that Berlin is running and given its scale, the type approval (aka homologation) for all models may switch to Germany. Ditto the corporate structure may get rewired.

But do we have any firm evidence either way ?

I don't think they've announced any plans related to such a change. There is some logic in this for sure, but don't forget mobility (of employees) is lower in Europe than the US for example. So this would certainly result in Tesla losing a number of (majority of ?) employees that have worked or them for close to 10 years in the Netherlands. That's a lot of institutional knowledge gone. And for what? Being closer to the factory, or using free office space? Not that there is no advantage of being co-located with the factory, but the price may be too high. I used to work in recruitment for 5 years back in the day, and you wouldn't believe how many employees our multinational customers lost just by moving to the other side of town or to a different city within the same country, let alone 700 km to another country.

 

[hobbes]

Yeah, was thinking about the same lines. If it was privat imports it could have been any country though, NL smells a bit like it Tesla related.

Maybe it is possible they went through homologation and can afterwards be registered and driven by engineers for real world testing (supercharging would be different) and fun. I´ll keep my eyes open for S/X going over 250 km/h on the freeway ...

BTW, will S and X still go through Tilburg for tax reasons? I forgot if they stopped already a while ago... but than again they haven´t been available for a while also...

And here we go ...

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ui2cqv

 

[RobStark]

It seems Swedes really like the new Kia Niro EV

 

[UkNorthampton]

It seems Swedes really like the new Kia Niro EV

View attachment 800688


View attachment 800687

Boatload arrived? All decent EVs might have a backlog. Efficient logistics rather than sales driving deliveries?

 

[RobStark]

Boatload arrived? All decent EVs might have a backlog. Efficient logistics rather than sales driving deliveries?

This is the trailing quarter or the last three months.

It seems all Korean EVs have limited production. Good selection all great values in their segment but always not enough. At least in the USA. I have read in Korea Kia-Hyundai EVs have 10-18 month waiting times.

Maybe for some reason Kia prioritized Sweden.

 

[UkNorthampton]

This is the trailing quarter or the last three months.

It seems all Korean EVs have limited production. Good selection all great values in their segment but always not enough. At least in the USA. I have read in Korea Kia-Hyundai EVs have 10-18 month waiting times.

Maybe for some reason Kia prioritized Sweden.

EU emissions fines means EU gets priority on supply (compared to USA). Whether Sweden got a large allotment from EU supply due to local incentives etc, I don't know. It could be that several other EU countries got a large supply as well.

On other threads, and forums it seems that Tesla is one of the quickest to supply EVs in UK at the moment, but still a hefty delay. UK not EU, but we're geographically close, we still retain similar EV/emission credits & some/many/most of us want to be closely aligned.

I think Sweden took a while to be pro-EV (in contrast to Norway). Now the dam has burst, I think adoption will be quicker than Norway was.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model Y Rules Supreme In Europe (Europe EV Sales Report) - CleanTechnica

Tesla continues to be the best selling brand in Europe, but Volkswagen is recovering Some 253,000 plugin vehicles were registered in May in Europe — which is +38% year over year (YoY). Unfortunately, the overall market also grew fast, +18%, surpassing 1 million sales. It is finally recovering...

cleantechnica.com

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]