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EV Battery Makers Market Share 2014 vs 2013

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by RobStark, Feb 16, 2015.

  1. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Another positive year for EV battery makers, with plug-ins selling more and more, the demand for batteries just keeps on growing, with an increase of 54% regarding the previous year. The Big Three continue to call the shots, but BYD is closing the gap...

    Li-Ion batteries dominate the market, but now they only own 88% vs 92% the year before, because Chinese battery makers (Like BYD or BPP) prefer LiFePo4 (8% share now vs 4% in 2013).
    PIBattery Makers2014 MWh2013 MWh'14%'13%
    1Panasonic2,7261,7003835
    2AESC1,6201,2892328
    3LG Chem8868121218
    4BYD46111763
    5Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa45129366
    6Samsung SDI314N/A4N/A
    7Beijing Pride Power (BPP)121N/A2N/A
    8ACCUmotive103N/A1N/A
    9Air Lithium102N/A1N/A
    10Tianneng77N/A1N/A

    TOTAL7,1674,667









    http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2015/02/battery-makers-full-year-2014.html
     
  2. bluenation

    bluenation Member

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    looking at that chart, you wonder how the hell LG chem is expected to provide batts for so many...
     
  3. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    #3 jhm, Feb 17, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2015
    Nice data. Thanks for posting. I've argued elsewhere that we should measure sales of EVs in units of GWh, or MWh for now. This is the metric that will tell how electrified the auto market has become. It's important that this metric grows by 50% or so each year as that is the kind of growth that is needed for EVs to dominate the new car market and crash the oil market by 2030. Do we have data on earlier years?

    It's worth noting that only Panasonic, BYD and new entrants gained marketshare. AESC and LG Chem need to come out with higher density cells to gain share. It may be argued that on the demand side density is the most important metric. Higher density enables more kWh to be put into a car regardless of the type of vehicle be it hybrid, plug in, or pure electric. This is an important issue that counting vehicles sold misses. It matters hiw many kWh is put into each vehicle. We need consumers to pick up on this and demand cars with more capacity. And we need car makers to respond to this demand and bring higher capacity products to market. If I were LG Chem, my strategy would be to push forward with higher density cells and work with customers at least to offer higher capacity options on their vehicles. You want car makers to be in a position to see just how much consumers are willing to pay for extra capacity. Consumers will take up these options, and this will cause the battery market to heat up.
     
  4. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    I've argued elsewhere that it takes about 100 GWh/year of gigafactory output to offset about 1 mbd (million barrels per day) of oil demand.
    Gas prices - Page 10
    To put that into perspective, the current oil crash was brought on by surplus of 2 mbd. Saudi Arabia produces a little more than 9 mbd and the US is close behind. So offsetting 1 mbd in oil demand is a really big deal.

    The Sparks Gigafactory at 50 GWh/year will get us half way there. My hope is that other automotive battery makers will keep pace with Tesla/Panasonic. Where we stand in 2014 offsets about 0.07 mbd. We've got to scale that up about 14-fold to make an impact on the oil market. At 50% annual growth, we can get there in 6.5 years, roughly doable by 2020.
     
  5. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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  6. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Great find, @RobStark. Let's see if we can guess from that chart when Tesla started buying cells for the Model S. :)
     
  7. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Wow, these other battery makers really need to find more customers like Tesla. It's not the scale of the automaker that matters; it's the commitment to making long range EVs that builds demand. It is actually quite sad that many of these battery makers have quite underutilized capacity. Their customers just cannot create enough demand for them. Is suspect you really cannot create much consumer demand starting with low density, 140Wh/kg, cells. They need at least to catch up with 250Wh/kg cells to gain traction with consumers. This is a bit like trying to sell 5.25" floppies after 3.5" floppies have been on the market for a few years.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Interesting data. Wonder how this chart will look like a year from now when the numbers of 2015 will be there as well.
     
  9. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    #9 jhm, Feb 21, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2015
    I think it's safe to say that Panasonic owes its marketshare to Tesla and the Model S. Without a compelling consumer product like the Model S, it is really hard to get cutting edge technology into the market and gain share. Suppliers are dependent on their clients to make a market success of their batteries. If Detroit is not making a showcase vehicle for your battery technology, then you may need to take matters into your own hands. We like to talk a lot about Apple or Google getting into this business, but what about the battery makers on this list?

    If I were Samsung, I would not wait for Apple to enter the digital car market. I would work as closely with Tesla as possible. Moreover, I would design my own Galaxy Car to showcase my technology. I would be happy to do a JV with Tesla on a Gigafactory where we could make packs that are compatible with both Tesla's cars and mine. I would totally buy into the Supercharger network and other charging infrastructure. I would be happy to sell my Galaxy cars through Tesla stores and want them serviced at Tesla service centers.

    Moreover, I think that Tesla would really want to work with Samsung if they exhibited that sort of ambition.
     
  10. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Samsung made ICE vehicles for the South Korean market in the late 90's.

    Then the Asian Financial Crisis hit and Samsung sold their automotive division to Renault keeping only a small share.

    Renault kept the right to sell automobiles using the Samsung name and logos for some time. Read different reports citing different time frames.

    But for now Samsung can't sell cars under the Samsung name.
     
  11. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Well, I guess everybody's got some baggage. I'm sure they could work something out. The Samsung name is only used in South Korea and Chile. Or they could make a car with Renault. Or create a whole new brand.

    Looking at their financials. They're about $200B market cap, declining revenue, solid profitability, 7% debt to equity and $55B cash. So it looks like they really should move into new markets and have a solid balance sheet to start with. Branding issues aside, they look like a good candidate for conspiring with Tesla.
     
  12. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    At least in the US and Korea I think Samsung has some valuable brand equity.

    Most/many Americans consider Samsung to sell the best TVs.

    Every time you walk into a Home Depot,Lowes, or Sears you see Samsung refrigerators with JD Powers Best in Class advertising.


    Not to mention Smartphones.

    It would be interesting to see how the Renault-Nissan Alliance would treat a potential new competitor.

    Will they take the Tesla approach or the GM lets get their stores band in Michigan and Maryland approach.
     
  13. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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