EV-CPO (MX inventory low...) thoughts?

[seantay00]

I've been watching the inventory over the last several months. Domestic US 6 seater inventory was hovering around 250 units and now down to around 150 units for several weeks... with some price increases from lower supply.

Anyone else noticed this? Is it due to potential holiday buying, or Tesla keeping less trade-ins?

I was thinking inventory would continue growing a bit as there were big sales in '16 Q4 and expected a lot of off lease trade ins now.

 

[Simon21]

Probably takes time for them to flip it. Also, emphasis is on new for now. After January it will focus back on used

 

[rush6410]

I've been watching the inventory over the last several months. Domestic US 6 seater inventory was hovering around 250 units and now down to around 150 units for several weeks... with some price increases from lower supply.

Anyone else noticed this? Is it due to potential holiday buying, or Tesla keeping less trade-ins?

I was thinking inventory would continue growing a bit as there were big sales in '16 Q4 and expected a lot of off lease trade ins now.

One possible reason the 16 Q4s are not moving is those were the first AP2.0 builds. If those folks bought FSD, many of them might be keeping based on FSD early purchasing. With the immanent AP2.0 FSD upgrade looming, they may be harder for the owner to give up.

But, that will not slow down the non FSD 16 Q4 trade-ins. I was thinking that they stopped offering AP2.0 the option to upgrade awhile ago. So, those vehicles are essentially useless or no different then owning an AP1 build when it comes to FSD. Sure they might have EAP, but they are already starting to become limited in functions.

 

[seantay00]

One possible reason the 16 Q4s are not moving is those were the first AP2.0 builds. If those folks bought FSD, many of them might be keeping based on FSD early purchasing. With the immanent AP2.0 FSD upgrade looming, they may be harder for the owner to give up.

But, that will not slow down the non FSD 16 Q4 trade-ins. I was thinking that they stopped offering AP2.0 the option to upgrade awhile ago. So, those vehicles are essentially useless or no different then owning an AP1 build when it comes to FSD. Sure they might have EAP, but they are already starting to become limited in functions.

Interesting thought on the AP2. I would have thought we'd see more popping up into secondary market given the Oct '16 release timeframe. Perhaps they are getting held a bit longer. I was thinking the warranty expiration might start to accelerate some trade-in's as well... where less will want to shell out another $5K on warranty extension when they could trade in and pickup a new model with fixed shudder, better battery, new MCU, and AP3.0. Perhaps this might take until mid next year as most of the '16s still have part of their final year of warranty remaining if they haven't hit the 50K mileage mark.

 

[rush6410]

Interesting thought on the AP2. I would have thought we'd see more popping up into secondary market given the Oct '16 release timeframe. Perhaps they are getting held a bit longer. I was thinking the warranty expiration might start to accelerate some trade-in's as well... where less will want to shell out another $5K on warranty extension when they could trade in and pickup a new model with fixed shudder, better battery, new MCU, and AP3.0. Perhaps this might take until mid next year as most of the '16s still have part of their final year of warranty remaining if they haven't hit the 50K mileage mark.

Speaking from a personal position, I didn't get the warranty (No problems in two years and decided to gamble the $5k), shudder is fixed with a repair (got this done right under 50k miles), I can live with 40 less miles (MX90D with less than 2% degradation, 252 vs 257 miles), I purchased the FSD back in Nov 2016 (waiting for the promised update to AP2.0 and MCU update). Again I think the folks that paid for the FSD are willing to wait it out. The non FSD late 16s will be the only ones up for grabs.