I'm starting to wonder if this excess carbon regulation in EU could set up a situation where Tesla is so strong in EU that OEMs struggle to get anything competitive to the market, thus locking them into either buying credits from Tesla or merging with Chinese EV makers. The FCA deal seems to show the risk. Fiat has tried to market an electric 500, but is so unprofitable at it that buying credits from Tesla is cheaper. So what if they never are able to produce their own EVs? The more aggressively Tesla and other EV maker compete, the harder it will be for FCA to get profitably* into the market. And being profitable here just means losing less money than buying credits from EV makers. So I'm concerned that FCA could simple be shut out of the EV market. The future might simply be to by credits from Tesla or other EVs as long as that makes sense, and after that be acquired. The acquirer must either be a capable EV maker or it will face the same excess emissions problems as FCA. So that really just means some capable EV maker would need to buy them. I don't see Tesla doing that deal, but maybe a Chinese EV maker, like Geely's acquisition of Volvo. The advantage for a Chinese outfit is that it can acquire recognizable European brands and gain immediate access to the EU and beyond. Tesla, on the other hand, does not need other brands or incumbent ICE cultures. About the only thing of value to Tesla might be factory floorspace, but that will be cheap enough al carte.
So I think part of watching the Chinese EV makers is to look out for potential mashups with struggling OEMs.