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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. renim

    renim Active Member

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    my guess, best selling 'ev' 2025
    USA market, size and function similar to F150 / Silverado
    battery size = 8 hours x 20 to 24 kw so 160kWh to 200 kWh,
    size dominates

    Japan market, best selling 'ev' 2025,
    size and function similar to kei, possibly sub compact.
    best selling distinctive technology, 3 cylinder phev with inductive charging (never need to plug in) and a small battery perhaps 100km city range so 10kWh.
    efficiency and price dominate

    neither exist currently
     
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  2. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  3. renim

    renim Active Member

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    Tesla's China's risk, is not in getting their deliveries, but rather its in screwing up their customer service. If Tesla has both holiday impact and customs port impact, Tesla might just rush too much to get in under the arbitrary March 31 deadline. Tesla screwed up the model S intro in China, they did well with the model X launch, 50:50, they could screw the model 3, not to the extent of the model S, but if they rush too much, in China there are other options.
     
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  4. renim

    renim Active Member

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    back when Ghosn signed off on the LEAF in 2006, Japan only had 2 kei cars in the top 10, but with vehicles like Prius and Corolla in the top 10, in USA , pickups still dominated, but Camry, Accord, Civic and Altima were also well represented, so there was some slight overlap. The LEAF basically fits within that slight overlap.

    no more

    those 2 markets have meaningfully diverged, interestingly the Japanese top 10 has diverged more, becoming very kei car centric.

    its no longer seems feasible to design a car to be a best seller in both Japan and USA. thats a real issue for the Japan, their designers live within a world of small city cars now, a real ev by Japanese standards will be a toy by USA equivalents. take for instance a mitsubishi i with a hypothetical 60-100 kWh pack. doesn't matter how large the pack becomes, or how long the range is, its not considered a real car by American consumers.
     
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  5. renim

    renim Active Member

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    quoting myself, signs of delusion

    anyway, BYD is second bar, someone else is first bar
    BYD was the world's largest plugin vehicle seller last year (due to commercial vehicles) and will probably still be the world's largest plugin vehicle seller this quarter, but even so, its obvious the new Chinese battery entrant has a scale advantage, even if it is distributed to multiple car manufacturers.
     
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  6. renim

    renim Active Member

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    BYD is second on that list, it seems Ningde is first (english CATL)
     
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  7. renim

    renim Active Member

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    off topic but
    upload_2019-4-4_12-9-11.png
    7 of these are kei cars, so very little profit for manufacture, good value for consumer. 8 of these would be 3cyl cars.

    point is, this is the top 10 for a market that is hollowed out for manufacturer's profitability. Its a market that is employed, but hand to mouth, sufficient funds to maintain and develop a little, but thats all, its as close a market to the theoretical ideal of perfect competition that you can find at a national level.

    3cyl, CVT and 47kW, its a box on 4 wheels

    (this also is one possible future for EVs, that the benefits goes to users, not to manufacturer's profits)
     
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  8. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  9. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    There are two factors though, one is cost, the other is timing. Developing a new powertrain + body to hit the emissions threshold for a target <2 years from now is non-trivial (depending when they started). If they have a vehicle slated for 2022, that doesn't help in 2021.
     
  10. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    Interesting reading ... thanks for sharing the link on the auto merger history over the last 20 years. :cool:

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    They've had many years to develop EVs. They even had a Fiat 500 EV which they said "cost to much to make".
    Slackers.
     
  12. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    The fact that the Chinese startups are going from zero to 3000/month pretty much immediately shows that they're more serious than the Western incumbents.

    We need to keep track of all of the Chinese EV makers. It's Tesla and China now. VW is trying to get into the field, but they haven't yet.
     
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  13. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I'm starting to wonder if this excess carbon regulation in EU could set up a situation where Tesla is so strong in EU that OEMs struggle to get anything competitive to the market, thus locking them into either buying credits from Tesla or merging with Chinese EV makers. The FCA deal seems to show the risk. Fiat has tried to market an electric 500, but is so unprofitable at it that buying credits from Tesla is cheaper. So what if they never are able to produce their own EVs? The more aggressively Tesla and other EV maker compete, the harder it will be for FCA to get profitably* into the market. And being profitable here just means losing less money than buying credits from EV makers. So I'm concerned that FCA could simple be shut out of the EV market. The future might simply be to by credits from Tesla or other EVs as long as that makes sense, and after that be acquired. The acquirer must either be a capable EV maker or it will face the same excess emissions problems as FCA. So that really just means some capable EV maker would need to buy them. I don't see Tesla doing that deal, but maybe a Chinese EV maker, like Geely's acquisition of Volvo. The advantage for a Chinese outfit is that it can acquire recognizable European brands and gain immediate access to the EU and beyond. Tesla, on the other hand, does not need other brands or incumbent ICE cultures. About the only thing of value to Tesla might be factory floorspace, but that will be cheap enough al carte.

    So I think part of watching the Chinese EV makers is to look out for potential mashups with struggling OEMs.
     
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  14. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Or FCA could acquire a BEV automaker now while they still have cash.

    The Chinese government may consider the top 3-10 strategic assets but not all ~400 of them.

    Lucid's ~300 engineers, many of them former Tesla employees, plus their patents and intellectual property could have been acquired for peanuts 8 months ago.
     
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  15. mblakele

    mblakele pre-jackpot member

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    That’s a valid concern, but wasn’t the electric 500 built purely for compliance? I’m not sure that counts as a serious effort to build a profitable EV.
     
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  16. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    The 500e powertrain was subcontracted out to Bosch. Then they slashed the order to 1/3. The cost per unit ballooned.
     
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  17. oneday

    oneday Active Member

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    IMO the first manufacturer to buy rights to the supercharger network will by default have a desirable EV. They just need to commit to building it in volume. Hopefully this happens sooner than later.
     
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  18. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    The pooling does help Tesla, but the OEMs are already in a difficult position regardless due to Tesla's manufacturing and design efficiencies. Like SpaceX, has their success killed the ability to develop competition?

    With the caveat that supercharger access only matters if the range of the OEM car in winter spans the supercharger network spacing...
     
  19. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Automakers risk massive fines for CO2 target miss, analysts say

    More background on the EU pooling. It looks like EU automakers are facing big fines for failing to reduce fleet CO2 emissions.

    ---
    The estimated total penalty payment is 34 billion euros, according to a report this month from JATO Dynamics, which based its figure on CO2 data from last year. Volkswagen Group and PSA Group, the two largest automakers by volume in Europe, could face the loss of up to half of their combined net profits, JATO said.

    VW Group is in danger of having to pay emissions fines despite having just announced it would invest 19 billion euros in electric vehicles from 2019 to 2023, Schweikl said. “They waited one or two years too long to develop their products,” he said. “Can they absorb a fine of, say, 1.X billion euros? Yes, they can, but the problem is not the money, it’s more their reputation if they miss a known target.”

    Dave Leggett, who is automotive editor at analytics company GlobalData, said in a note Monday: "As the time horizon to 95g/km shortens, other companies are sure to consider pooling as a strategy for avoiding large fines. The sum FCA may be paying Tesla for the pooling privilege has not been disclosed. It is not surprising that zero-emissions Tesla is alert to the revenue raising pooling opportunity emerging in Europe. It has also made money trading zero-emission credits in the US in the past."
     
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  20. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    This is a bigger estimate than we heard before.

    Open question: What is the best sort of deal Tesla can strike with FCA? Beyond cash, what could Tesla be interested in?
     

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