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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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  2. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    The not-so-encouraging news is stealing share from hybrids and PHEVs won't get you very far.

    CA's mild climate, $4 gasoline, social mores and various incentives (tax credit, HOV, etc.) all encourage hybrid/EV purchase. Yet combined hybrid/EV market share only grew from 9% to 12% in six years! Look at this consumer adoption curve EV fans like to tout. Adoption rate was almost vertical by the time these new technologies reached 10% share. If you consider CA BEVs separately, the trend best matches air travel in 1950, with 5% share and close to 1%/year share growth rate. 20% share took another 15 years. And the recent CA BEV surge was almost entirely due to Tesla Model 3, which was a one-time event. [​IMG]
     
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  3. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    As a single data point on the East Coast of the US, I have a “hate/love” relationship with my PHEV (previous PHEV totaled in Texas and needed a car ‘right now’)
    PHEV sat on dealers showroom floor for over a year so they extremely discounted it.
    (Still a bad deal)
    I _hate_ the damn thing because only 28 miles EV
    Toyota wants my input as to what I “love” about it and how to “improve” it
    10x the electric range, ditch the ICE
    I see perhaps 5-8 Tesla’s on Interstate 75 and 95 during 1,000 mile trips recently and bunches of them in Maryland and Florida

    I also see 1,000’s of ICE vehicles parked, waiting, hoping, pretty faces in dealers lots with “please please buy me, no ME”

    Piling up, a huge pulse of unsold, soon to be stranded inventories

    Remember, Ford is laying off 7,000 employers and greater losses in other vehicle companies
     
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  4. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    Interesting data, however, I would argue that the Model 3 market share will continue to grow and is not a one-time event.
     
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  5. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    In CA??? Tesla sold ~30k Model 3s in CA in Q4 for 6% share. For Model 3 to power another big leap in EV penetration it'd have to go above 10% share. Instead, it fell to 3% in Q1 (more like 2.5%, actually) and will probably rebound to 3.5-4.0% this quarter thanks to pent-up SR+ demand. I don't see it getting back to 6%, much less 10%+.
     
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  6. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    You're confusing supply with demand.
    Tesla's sales dropped Q1 because they shipped most of their production to Europe and China.
     
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  7. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    CA customers had no trouble getting Model 3s in Q1, except SR+ which came very late in the quarter. They can fill almost all orders today out of inventory. Supply is sufficient to meet demand in CA. And everywhere else, excepting a few smaller markets.
     
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  8. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    Now you may be confusing the Texas market with California... :cool:
     
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  9. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Skyrocketing Tesla Sales Force Mercedes Dealer In Norway To Face A Kodak Moment | CleanTechnica

    Notably, the Tesla Model 3 accounted for 31% of all passenger auto sales in Norway in March. Due to Tesla’s cyclical delivery schedule, March was an abnormal month that basically represented the quarter’s sales for Tesla in Norway, but still, the Model 3 is far and away the top selling car in Norway in 2019 so far

    It is perhaps a good time to review the graph here (on the bottom) by Nicholas Felton. Norway is far ahead in the EV adoption curve, but we expect other countries will be in the same place within 5 or so years.

    This should serve as a warning to companies like Toyota that take a “wait and see” attitude toward EVs. As Tony Seba describes more clearly than anyone else I know, although a disruption starts slowly, when things hit a tipping point, demand shifts quickly and those unprepared for the change must suffer the effects of the disruption.
     
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  10. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    Thanks for sharing the link... Tesla Model 3 Leads The Electric Army In Historic Month — Norway EV Sales Report | CleanTechnica

    upload_2019-5-26_10-33-20.png
     
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  11. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    A CleanTechnica analysis concludes that the Model 3 was the top selling vehicle in California by revenue in Q1.

    California is the world's fifth largest economy, has a strong car culture and is often a technology trendsetter so this is a very big deal. Especially notable since it came immediately after the tax credit step-down.

    Maximilian Holland, the author, suggests that Model 3 could take a similar percentage of the market in Europe in the long run (once GF4 is built).

    California-Q1-2019-Top-5-by-Revenue-Millions-1.png

    Tesla Model 3 = #1 Top Selling Car In California In Terms Of Revenue — Q1 2019 | CleanTechnica
     
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  12. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    The global growth curve for EVs is consistent and not really affected by minor burbles in individual markets. 40% - 50% annual growth; doubling every two years. Very simple.

    So far, Tesla has tracked the global growth curve quite closely. Production problems may have Tesla low one year, and then they catch up the next year. Make no mistake, Tesla is still strictly production limited.

    I fully expect Tesla to slow down and be unable to match the global EV growth rate at some point; arguably this has already happened; but they're closer to matching the growth of the total EV market than any other company is; everyone else is falling behind faster. (The total growth is partly made up of new companies entering the EV market.)

    We now know something about how the adoption curve will look after it reaches 50% market share, thanks to Norway essentially reaching 50% last year. It keeps going exponentially the next year, right up to 75%. In 2020 we will probably find out how the rest of the back half of the adoption curve looks in Norway -- I doubt it will go up to 112.5% market share, so it'll be a very interesting number to look at. California will follow the same curve, obviously, though it is many years behind Norway.
     
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  13. sunny-value

    sunny-value Member

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    I don't buy the idea that any other place will have the same EV adoption curve as Norway did unless that place also taxes ICEs in exactly the way that Norway did.
     
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  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    The importance of Norway is in showing that the only important barrier is cost.
     
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  15. sunny-value

    sunny-value Member

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    Current cost vs future cost (rebuilding Miami and Boston will cost money too)...there is no hope unless all the nations of the world agree to a rising carbon tax, which goes up at 5% a year for the next 20 years.
     
  16. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Taxes played a big role in making EVs affordable. We now are on the verge of EVs without subsidies being cheaper than ICE.
     
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  17. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I was hoping for a funny rating on my mention of 112% market share. :-(
     
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  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Carbon tax just hurts the poor. See France.

    Only way to deal with climate change is to implement a grand scheme like the new green deal. You need to make everyone involved and cared for.
     
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  19. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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  20. sunny-value

    sunny-value Member

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    That depends on what you do with the income from the tax. It would be best to use most of it to support the bottom 50% of the income distribution with dividend checks (like residents of Alaska get for oil production there). AS those are the folks who are probably going to be the least equipped to deal with the changes coming.
     

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