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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. Dr. J

    Dr. J Member

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    Green house gases, yes, carbon, no (at least not in an absolutist sense like your initial assertion was phrased). Besides, now you're talking about ecosystems instead of "earth." Earth is like honeybadger: it don't care if we kill ourselves and all other life, earth goes on.

    To your point about regulation vs. (presumably) harnessing market forces: Markets are excellent tools to allocate resources efficiently. Regulations are inept about allocating resources efficiently. Regulations should have high standards and not be prescriptive--that is, they should tell market actors what to achieve, but not how to achieve it. Let market actors figure out the most efficient means of achieving the high standards set by regulation.

    This is on the order of how to make a million dollars: First, you have a great idea for making a million dollars, then you implement your great idea. All you've done is move the problem from the making money stage to the prior having a great idea stage. The question is: HOW to get a large majority of people TO WANT to do something about the problem you perceive? That majority does not now exist in any politically effective way. Create that majority, and the problem solves itself.
     
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  2. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    @jhm
    I’m not sure if this article is apropos to discussion
    I’m not sure if residential PV “behind the meter”? Is counted in growth of PV, completely or partially, but suspect partiality at best.
    I need to graph EIA sales of PV and think
    Wind turbines are easier because they are so big and not as modular to increase in number
    The link to below story is individuals going 100% solar renewable energy for everything and being completely or partially repeated (go 200% PV!?)
    I suspect many of you when randomly going about are seeing more and more PV arrays popping up everywhere
    We Electrified Everything (and So Can You) | CleanTechnica
     
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  3. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I'm just going to add another evolutionary biology thought -- lateral transfer. There are many, many types of solar developed for different niches by different people. But you can take ideas from one and apply them to another, the way genes can be transferred from one bacterium to another by viruses and other lateral transfer mechanisms.

    Wind has less starting diversity than solar. Nuclear has even less: most of the diverse ideas have never worked out enough of the bugs to work at all. Also, the lateral transfers don't work: the gimmicks for one type don't translate to another. Gas actually has some lateral transfer, as "combined cycle" plants show.
     
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  4. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    I like that addition! See also, hybrid swarm hypothesis (attached pdf).
     

    Attached Files:

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  5. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Nobody wants ICE
    Ford 'still committed to UK' despite Bridgend engine factory closure - business live

    Ford 'still committed to UK' despite Bridgend engine factory closure - business live

    Factors behind the proposed closure of Bridgend include significant underutilisation of the plant, driven by the impending end of engine production for Jaguar Land Rover, the cessation of the previous generation Ford GTDi 1.5-litre engine, and reduced global demand for the new generation Ford GTDi and Pfi 1.5-litre engine.
    “Ford broke promise after promise to the UK. First, it was that it would build 500,000 engines at Bridgend. That fell to a quarter of a million, then fell again and again to now just 80,000. The company has deliberately run down its UK operations so that now not a single Ford vehicle - car or van - is made in the UK.
     
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  6. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Hey folks, I've been on vacation this last week. Still in a cabin listing to a mighty frog chorus. Carry on.
     
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  7. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    It seems that hybrid vehicles had an advantage early on, when batteries were expensive and charging infrastructure substantially underdeveloped. But now we are seeing BEVs growth at a faster pace at least in terms of relative growth. This was very dramatically illustrated within the electric bus market for China. For several year hybrid buses enjoyed a substantial lead. Then in one year it was if the market figured out the plug-in buses both plug-in hybrid and BEV buses are a good thing. HEV buses took a nosedive in sales the next year. A year after that, PHEV buses started to lose substantial growth to BEV buses. So in the span of about 4 years it when from HEVs as the dominant species to BEVs as the clear successor to drive out all sorts of hybrids. I think in this case the key issue was that bus fleet operators had to make a serious investment into charging. Once that was in place, I suspect it became clear that plug-ins are superior and soon that ICE range extenders were superfluous appendages that might only add more maintenance cost than they are worth. This progression that played out so quickly in China has given me confidence that it will play out elsewhere, thought it may take longer. Bus fleet operators are buying new vehicles every year, and they have clear visibility into performance through the lifecycle of a type of vehicle. So fleet operators are in a special situation to change purchasing behavior very quickly once they perceive a clear advantage.
     
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  8. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  9. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    The Car Industry Is Under Siege

    FRANKFURT — It’s a scary time to be in the car business.

    The internal combustion engine is under attack from electric challengers. Car ownership is becoming optional in the age of Uber. Regulators around the world are fining companies that don’t do enough to cut carbon dioxide emissions, even as buyers demand gas-guzzling S.U.V.s. Global auto sales are slipping for the first time in a decade, disrupted by President Trump’s escalating trade war.

    The aborted proposal to create the world’s third-largest automaker was a response to the disruption threatening an industry that accounts for many of the world’s factory jobs and is crucial to the economic fortunes of the United States, Japan and Europe.

    New technology has unraveled industries like entertainment, media, telecommunications and retailing, weakening the job security of millions of workers and helping to fuel populism. Carmakers, clearly, are next.

    “It’s going to be the biggest change we’ve seen in the last 100 years, and it’s going to be really expensive even for the biggest companies,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

    Investors have already signaled who they think will come out ahead of this transformation. The electric carmaker Tesla, despite all its problems, is still worth more on the stock market than either Fiat Chrysler or Renault. Uber is worth much more than the two combined, even after reporting a $1 billion quarterly loss.

    ...
    By some estimates, half of all auto industry jobs in Germany are at risk. Battery-powered cars have far fewer parts than cars reliant on gasoline or diesel, endangering suppliers of valves, pistons and other parts in conventional engines. The most important part of an electric car, the battery cells, usually comes from Asia.
     
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  10. renim

    renim Active Member

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    upload_2019-6-10_11-20-43.png
     
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  11. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  12. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    #292 FlatSix911, Jun 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
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  13. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Kentucky PSC Rules Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Are Not Utilities

    PSC Spokesperson Andrew Melynykovich said it could open the door to more stations and more electric cars.

    “You know, it’s kind of a chicken and the egg thing. Does the popularity of electric vehicles drive the need for charging stations or does the deployment of charging stations increase the popularity of electric vehicles? I don’t know the answer to that. But, clearly, you got to have one to have the other,” said Melnykovich.
     
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  14. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    This is good. We don't need much by way of regulation for charging stations, and we sure don't want utilities to have local monopolies on charging or powering chargers.
     
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  15. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    #295 FlatSix911, Jun 27, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
    A surprising admission by BMW... BMW says there's no demand for all-electric cars - they are wrong - Electrek


    BMW’s director of development, Klaus Frölich told in a round-table interview in Munich that they don’t see demand for all-electric vehicles (via Forbes):

    There are no customer requests for BEVs. None. There are regulator requests for BEVs, but no customer requests.”

    “If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million (BEV) cars but Europeans won’t buy these things.

    From what we see, BEVs are for China and California and everywhere else is better off with PHEVs with good EV range.”
     
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  16. Fred42

    Fred42 Member

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    Just bad mouthing what they can't do. And PHEV's utilize their existing capital investments and expertise.
     
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  17. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    @jhm

    Ark has posted some information supporting their views on more rapid EV transition than most other people, including noting that unlike other disruptive technologies EV growth is accelerating as it captures a larger part of the market.

    Be interested in your reactions when you have a minute:

    Electric vehicles (EVs)1 generally, and Tesla specifically, seem to be breaking the “s-curve” adoption mold. According to our research, EV growth is stealing the march from the traditional auto industry, and Tesla is leading the charge, so to speak.​

    In a typical s-curve adoption cycle, growth decelerates as a new technology penetrates its addressable market, as shown below.​

    [​IMG]

    In contrast to a typical s-curve adoption cycle, the growth in EV sales has accelerated from 60% in 2013 to 79% in 2018, suggesting that EVs are expanding the addressable market, as shown below.​

    [​IMG]

    EV Growth is Outperforming the Traditional S-Curve Dynamics
     
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  18. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Ark has a nice analysis, but they are quite wrong to say that EVs are "outperforming the traditional S-curve".

    They're still on the standard S curve -- it's just that we're very far from the 50% adoption point where the curve typically slows down. They're still in the acceleration phase.

    BTW, that point is 50% arguably of *cars on the road*, not 50% of new cars sold.

    Even if we treat it as new cars, only Norway has reached the 50% point where the growth rate slows down. We can watch Norway to see what happens to EV market share after that 50% point. I think 2019 and 2020 Norway numbers will be fascinating -- what will the residual gas-car sales be in Norway in 2020? That will give us an estimate for what happens after other countries reach 50% new car sales electric.
     
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  19. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    So far in my analysis of global EV penetration rates, I see no evidence to suggest that the uptake is faster in shape than what an ordinary logistic curve can model. Moreover, we are not far enough in this to see a difference between the fit of an exponential model or a logistic model. Basically we need to get much closer to 50% EV market share before we can rule out the ordinary logistic curve. It could happen, but it is way to early to say that it has happened.

    One interesting twist that could move adoption away from a logistic curve is electric robotaxis come to dominate the auto market. This could lead to a more abrupt fall off in demand for traditional ICE.

    Of course, whether this transition follows a logistic curve or not is not really the most important question. The interesting question is simply how fast are we transitioning. So far we appear to be going a little faster than 0.4 logit per year which is fast enough to go from 5% to 50% share in about 7.4 years, and from 50% to 95% in another 7.4 years.
     
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  20. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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