EV Market Share

[neroden]

So far in my analysis of global EV penetration rates, I see no evidence to suggest that the uptake is faster in shape than what an ordinary logistic curve can model. Moreover, we are not far enough in this to see a difference between the fit of an exponential model or a logistic model. Basically we need to get much closer to 50% EV market share before we can rule out the ordinary logistic curve. It could happen, but it is way to early to say that it has happened.

One interesting twist that could move adoption away from a logistic curve is electric robotaxis come to dominate the auto market. This could lead to a more abrupt fall off in demand for traditional ICE.

Of course, whether this transition follows a logistic curve or not is not really the most important question. The interesting question is simply how fast are we transitioning. So far we appear to be going a little faster than 0.4 logit per year which is fast enough to go from 5% to 50% share in about 7.4 years, and from 50% to 95% in another 7.4 years.

So about 10 years from 2018's 2% of the world market to 50% of the world market, then? 2028 for 50% market share in the world? A year sooner if it's exponential rather than logistic? Did I do the calculation right?

Of course in Norway we have already hit 50% market share, so it will be interesting to see what happens next.

 

[jhm]

So about 10 years from 2018's 2% of the world market to 50% of the world market, then? 2028 for 50% market share in the world? A year sooner if it's exponential rather than logistic? Did I do the calculation right?

Of course in Norway we have already hit 50% market share, so it will be interesting to see what happens next.

Those calculations were just for simple illustration. My current logistic model has EV penetration at 49% in 2027. But yes, an exponential curve calibrated to match an exponential curve in say the first 5% would reach 50% penetration soon than the logistic. In fact, you can think of a logistic as an "exponential" where the growth rate is proportional to (1-penetration), that is the growth rate declines as the market becomes saturated.

The curious thing about the logistic curve is that growth (gain in market share) is symmetric about 50%. Naturally, as the market reaches saturation the growth will slow down, but in actuality this need not be symmetric. So Norway will be an interesting case to see if it is symmetric as a simple logistic curve or something more complex. I suspect that we will see something nearly symmetric for Norway. At present we simply do not have enough competitive EVs in every automotive segment and we don't have enough competition at the level of Tesla's 3 models even in their respective segments. So I'm inclined to think there will be a lot of niches for ICE vehicles to retreat into, niches where there is not yet enough competitive pressure from EVs. So it could take a long time for the EV industry to adequately address those niches, even though current offerings may well address 60% to 80% of the market. From a global perspective, however, those niches can wait. There is a ton of low hanging fruit just to get to 50% of the auto market globally. The US fixation on pickup trucks, for example, is just a niche product in the global market, and so Tesla may be justified in waiting till 2022 or so to bring a pickup to market. Let's see how much share the Models 3 and Y can take up. So back to Norway, whatever niche pickup trucks may represent for Norway, it is still several years off before even Tesla can address it. The point here is that a niche in Norway will probably not get addressed until that niche is addressed globally. So the gain in EV market share could slow up considerably in Norway as particular niches wait for the rest of globe to catch up.

 

[Dr. J]

The point here is that a niche in Norway will probably not get addressed until that niche is addressed globally.

If you find a niche, scratch it!

 

[adiggs]

If you find a niche, scratch it!

Or supply drive trains to other companies that want to scratch that niche.

 

[jhm]

Selling New Cars Proves Unprofitable For Most Auto Dealers

This is interesting, structural changes in the dealership model. Dealers are losing an average of $735 per new vehicle sold. They are increasingly dependent on OEM incentives that come with strings attached. So dealers are becoming more the agent of OEMs than remaining independent dealers.

I suspect that the contraction in demand for ICE vehicles is largely what is undergirding this transformation. There is simply not a need for so many dealerships to exist. This is why they can't make an operation profit. So their negotiating power with OEMs is greatly reduced. The OEMs only need a fraction of the dealers to survive, so they are in a position of naming their terms. Those that play along might just survive.

Dealers are also dependent on parts and service income. This has been a point of resistance for selling EVs. So it is curious that with dealer incentives driving new car sales, dealers may have little choice but to sell as many EVs as incentives dictate. Eventually some sort of shift like this would become necessary for OEM survival.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The dealership model is the same as modern home appliances. The product needs to be built to fail in order for it to be profitable.

 

[mspohr]

The dealership model is the same as modern home appliances. The product needs to be built to fail in order for it to be profitable.

Ford says their self driving cars will only last four years. That should drive sales

 

[Dr. J]

Ford says their self driving cars will only last four years. That should drive sales

Ford says its autonomous cars will last just four years – TechCrunch

I thought you were joking.

Rich says the idea is to transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEV) eventually, but that Ford also needs to “find the right balance that will help develop a profitable, viable business model. This means launching with hybrids first.”

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ford says their self driving cars will only last four years. That should drive sales

They were referring to autonomous vehicles running up very high annual mileage so their years of operation would be reduced.

But I think it's ignoring the impact that cheap autonomy would have in shifting people out of little-used commuter cars and into rideshare.

 

[Dr. J]

They were referring to autonomous vehicles running up very high annual mileage so their years of operation would be reduced.

But I think it's ignoring the impact that cheap autonomy would have in shifting people out of little-used commuter cars and into rideshare.

Presumably he thinks one of the following:

• Miles driven increase exponentially
• Ford will take miles market share from other manufacturers
• Ford will cannibalize its own sales

 

[ggr]

Think how many software updates you would miss in 4 years of Ford ownership.

 

[vickh]

Selling New Cars Proves Unprofitable For Most Auto Dealers

This is interesting, structural changes in the dealership model. Dealers are losing an average of $735 per new vehicle sold.

.

this is true for Tesla for SR 3s perhaps sold for a small loss for potential future upgrades

 

[jhm]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 July 2019

Wow, Tesla is reaching 15% share of the PEV market. The gap between #1 and #2 is widening.

 

[jhm]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - July 2018

For comparison, this was the same report month a year ago. BYD and Tesla were neck and neck at 10% market share each.

Also the YTD total is up 39% y/y, from 906k to 1,262k. So it looks like we may be on course to 2.9M by year end.

Edit. I'm also noticing that BYD has gained 2% points of market share. That's really spectacular growth, not to be diminished by the fact that Tesla took 5% points of share. When the two front runners take 7% points combined, that suggests consolidation. Big Auto is losing ground in this race.

 

[gavine]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - July 2018

For comparison, this was the same report month a year ago. BYD and Tesla were neck and neck at 10% market share each.

Also the YTD total is up 39% y/y, from 906k to 1,262k. So it looks like we may be on course to 2.9M by year end.

Edit. I'm also noticing that BYD has gained 2% points of market share. That's really spectacular growth, not to be diminished by the fact that Tesla took 5% points of share. When the two front runners take 7% points combined, that suggests consolidation. Big Auto is losing ground in this race.

Chevrolet dropped a lot. I really thought the Bolt would do better. Must be the sales-prevention teams at the dealers. In actuality, it was the discontinuation of the Volt.

 

[winfield100]

I really, seriously regret getting a Prius plug in (8.8kWh) and not waiting for a Tesla 3.
Even with 1,461miles/tank

 

[heltok]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 July 2019

Wow, Tesla is reaching 15% share of the PEV market. The gap between #1 and #2 is widening.

Any predictions for next year same time? With GF3 hopefully up and running and halfway through the Model Y ramp maybe I would guess monthly +100% and yearly +50% with a 20% share.

 

[jhm]

Another thing to compare in the two charts above is how much growth there was at each rank.

1. Tesla Tesla grew 100%
2. BYD BYD grew 72%
3. BAIC BAIC grew 21%
4. BMW SAIC grew 15%
5. Roewe BMW grew 27%
...
10. Toyota Kia grew 22%
...
20. Mercedes Dongfeng grew 13%
Group below top 20 grew 168%
Total grew 38%

So above average growth was observed in the top two and group below top 20. Rank 3 to 20 did not grow so fast. This is really curious. There may be some important movement going on in the bottom ranks. We just don't see who those winners are because they lack the scale to be in top twenty. But the middle ranks are a real disappointment. We could see 60% growth overall if the middle ranks were pushing harder. Perhaps we'll see the some lower rank EV makers push up to top twenty and accelerate the middle. Great Wall, Changan, and Dongfeng have recently done this. One time surge, or will we see these names rise higher?

 

[renim]

spot checks


2013

top 3 held 49% of market,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Nissan, Mitsubishi, BYD was 36% of market)

2015

top 3 held 31% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi was 26% of market)

2017

top 3 held 24% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi, was 15% of market), tesla gigafactory starts production but most automotive cells probably still from Panasonic Japan.

2019 half yearly

top 3 held 25% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Tesla, BYD, Nissan was 31% of market)

Its preliminary, but overall it seems to indicate that Tesla is current outperform, but that the trend is for reducing market share for the top 3. It also seems the automotive opportunity to profitably self make li ions cells is passing, really only 2 automotive seem capable to do that, BYD, and to a lessor extent Tesla (demarcation between what is Tesla vs what is Panasonic is blurry, similar to Nissan vs AESC). After spending a bomb of money on cell production, Mercedes walked away. Mitsubishi is hands off, Nissan is clearly open to 3rd party providers.

So unlike engine production, it seems that cell production is following more the IT precedent that fab plants are separate to phone/computer companies.

 

[Doggydogworld]

spot checks


2013
View attachment 449316
top 3 held 49% of market,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Nissan, Mitsubishi, BYD was 36% of market)

2015
View attachment 449321
top 3 held 31% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi was 26% of market)

2017
View attachment 449322
top 3 held 24% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi, was 15% of market), tesla gigafactory starts production but most automotive cells probably still from Panasonic Japan.

2019 half yearly
View attachment 449323
top 3 held 25% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Tesla, BYD, Nissan was 31% of market)

Its preliminary, but overall it seems to indicate that Tesla is current outperform, but that the trend is for reducing market share for the top 3. It also seems the automotive opportunity to profitably self make li ions cells is passing, really only 2 automotive seem capable to do that, BYD, and to a lessor extent Tesla (demarcation between what is Tesla vs what is Panasonic is blurry, similar to Nissan vs AESC). After spending a bomb of money on cell production, Mercedes walked away. Mitsubishi is hands off, Nissan is clearly open to 3rd party providers.

So unlike engine production, it seems that cell production is following more the IT precedent that fab plants are separate to phone/computer companies.

Wow, 2013's top 4 are now 6, 11, 15 and 19. So much for first mover advantage. Also, top 3 make up 33% of the market so far in 2019, not 25%. That's more than 2015 and 2017. Interesting that 4-20 and "others" also get about 33% each in 2019.

BYD recently reduced 2H19 guidance due to China's subsidy changes, so Tesla's #1 ranking should be safe.

You're right about cells becoming a horizontal market. Musk recently said "we can use any high density cell".