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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    So about 10 years from 2018's 2% of the world market to 50% of the world market, then? 2028 for 50% market share in the world? A year sooner if it's exponential rather than logistic? Did I do the calculation right?

    Of course in Norway we have already hit 50% market share, so it will be interesting to see what happens next.
     
  2. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Those calculations were just for simple illustration. My current logistic model has EV penetration at 49% in 2027. But yes, an exponential curve calibrated to match an exponential curve in say the first 5% would reach 50% penetration soon than the logistic. In fact, you can think of a logistic as an "exponential" where the growth rate is proportional to (1-penetration), that is the growth rate declines as the market becomes saturated.

    The curious thing about the logistic curve is that growth (gain in market share) is symmetric about 50%. Naturally, as the market reaches saturation the growth will slow down, but in actuality this need not be symmetric. So Norway will be an interesting case to see if it is symmetric as a simple logistic curve or something more complex. I suspect that we will see something nearly symmetric for Norway. At present we simply do not have enough competitive EVs in every automotive segment and we don't have enough competition at the level of Tesla's 3 models even in their respective segments. So I'm inclined to think there will be a lot of niches for ICE vehicles to retreat into, niches where there is not yet enough competitive pressure from EVs. So it could take a long time for the EV industry to adequately address those niches, even though current offerings may well address 60% to 80% of the market. From a global perspective, however, those niches can wait. There is a ton of low hanging fruit just to get to 50% of the auto market globally. The US fixation on pickup trucks, for example, is just a niche product in the global market, and so Tesla may be justified in waiting till 2022 or so to bring a pickup to market. Let's see how much share the Models 3 and Y can take up. So back to Norway, whatever niche pickup trucks may represent for Norway, it is still several years off before even Tesla can address it. The point here is that a niche in Norway will probably not get addressed until that niche is addressed globally. So the gain in EV market share could slow up considerably in Norway as particular niches wait for the rest of globe to catch up.
     
    • Informative x 2
  3. Dr. J

    Dr. J Member

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    If you find a niche, scratch it!
     
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  4. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Or supply drive trains to other companies that want to scratch that niche.
     
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