EV Market Share

[jhm]

spot checks


2013
View attachment 449316
top 3 held 49% of market,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Nissan, Mitsubishi, BYD was 36% of market)

2015
View attachment 449321
top 3 held 31% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi was 26% of market)

2017
View attachment 449322
top 3 held 24% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (BYD, Nissan, Mitsubishi, was 15% of market), tesla gigafactory starts production but most automotive cells probably still from Panasonic Japan.

2019 half yearly
View attachment 449323
top 3 held 25% of market, ,car companies with sizeable battery making investment (Tesla, BYD, Nissan was 31% of market)

Its preliminary, but overall it seems to indicate that Tesla is current outperform, but that the trend is for reducing market share for the top 3. It also seems the automotive opportunity to profitably self make li ions cells is passing, really only 2 automotive seem capable to do that, BYD, and to a lessor extent Tesla (demarcation between what is Tesla vs what is Panasonic is blurry, similar to Nissan vs AESC). After spending a bomb of money on cell production, Mercedes walked away. Mitsubishi is hands off, Nissan is clearly open to 3rd party providers.

So unlike engine production, it seems that cell production is following more the IT precedent that fab plants are separate to phone/computer companies.

Nice post! Looking at the top 3 EV makers through time is a good way to explore historical development.

By my calculation the top 3 in 2019 YTD have 33% market share. So the trend to low concentration has sharply reversed. Indeed if Tesla holds 15% and the top 3 is to be less than 25%, then that means #2 and #3 can only share 10% combined. This implies at least a 10% difference between Tesla and #3. My expectation is that BYD and a few other Chinese OEM are way to competitive to allow Tesla to hold such a commanding lead. So we could see the top 3 compete fiercely to hold at least 30% of the market for the next ten year. That is they will lead the pack in cannibalizing ICE sales until EVs dominate the auto market.

I could see the top 3 EV makers owning 20% of the auto market in about ten years. So that's my hunch at this point. I obviously cannot prove it. But IF the top 3 hang on to 30% of the EV market until the EV market gains 2/3 of the auto market, that implies the top 3 hold potentially more than 20% of the auto market. (BYD might still be producing a few ICE vehicles at that time.) Gaining the first 2/3 of the auto market is when top EV makers will be able to grab market share the fastest and easiest. So I think this will be the most exciting leg of the race.

 

[renim]

. Also, top 3 make up 33% of the market so far in 2019, not 25%. That's more than 2015 and 2017. Interesting that 4-20 and "others" also get about 33% each in 2019..

Thanks, my error.

 

[STARR X]

Then there is the Pareto principle, or the 80/20 rule. Do the top 20% of EV makers sell roughly 80% of all EV’s? And if so, what % of that 80% is/will Tesla be selling?

 

[jhm]

Then there is the Pareto principle, or the 80/20 rule. Do the top 20% of EV makers sell roughly 80% of all EV’s? And if so, what % of that 80% is/will Tesla be selling?

I'm not really sure how many EV makers there are. From the most recent top 20 list, the top 20 shared 68% of the EV market, not quite 80%. So are there over 100 EV makers? Could be.

One thing that is tricky with the EV market is that most auto makers seem to be making EVs purely to satisfy regulatory requirements. Even Toyota is being compelled to make EVs for China just so they can keep selling ICE in that market. So I think this makes the field much wider than it would be for those that want to gain EV market share for it's own sake. EV critics are quick to dismiss all EVs as only existing on the basis if government policies. But there are a few like Tesla that are driven to gain market share for it's own sake (or in loftier terms, "to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport").

As those that truly want EV market share scale up, they will come to dominate the EV industry. So I actually think the top 10 could gain 80% share and the top 3, 30% to 50% share. I'm hopeful that Tesla alone can take 20% share.

Search request: can anyone figure out what share of the BEV market Tesla has? I'm feeling too lazy to research this right now, but essentially we need to know how many BEVs have been sold this year.

 

[renim]

FWIW

realistically, Suzuki should be added to Toyota, so its Toyozuki at 14 million

note well, this does not represent profits, notice how neither Mercedes or BMW are in the global top 10 automakers...

 

[EinSV]

Search request: can anyone figure out what share of the BEV market Tesla has? I'm feeling too lazy to research this right now, but essentially we need to know how many BEVs have been sold this year.

@jhm, hopefully this helps:

ev-sales.blogspot reported that 1,117,484 plug-ins were sold worldwide through 6/30.

They had BEVs at 73% of the market, so 815,763 BEVs total.

They have Tesla selling 160,006 cars through 6/30, or ~20% of the global BEV market by units. Obviously much higher than that by $.

EV Sales: World (scroll down to "Global Top 20 June").

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Fiat just pulled the 500 and 500e(EV) from the US market, so there's one less unworthy competitor.

 

[jhm]

FWIW
View attachment 450142
realistically, Suzuki should be added to Toyota, so its Toyozuki at 14 million

note well, this does not represent profits, notice how neither Mercedes or BMW are in the global top 10 automakers...

Cool! So the top 3 have 34% market share. This is right in line with the top 3 EV makers having 33% of EV market share. Only difference is in the actual names of the top three.

 

[jhm]

@jhm, hopefully this helps:

ev-sales.blogspot reported that 1,117,484 plug-ins were sold worldwide through 6/30.

They had BEVs at 73% of the market, so 815,763 BEVs total.

They have Tesla selling 160,006 cars through 6/30, or ~20% of the global BEV market by units. Obviously much higher than that by $.

EV Sales: World (scroll down to "Global Top 20 June").

Nice. So Tesla has 20% share of BEV market. If they can just hold on to this for another 10 years, Tesla will be bigger than VW is right now.

 

[RobStark]

FWIW

realistically, Suzuki should be added to Toyota, so its Toyozuki at 14 million

note well, this does not represent profits, notice how neither Mercedes or BMW are in the global top 10 automakers...

Mazda and Subaru are closer to Toyota than Suzuki.

If there is such a thing as Toyosuzki then then there is a VolksFord.

Mercedes and BMW are as profitable as General Motors because their cars make 4x the profit of the average mainstream vehicle.

GM lost 1.5M unit sales when the sold Opel/Vauxhall .

 

[EinSV]

Nice. So Tesla has 20% share of BEV market. If they can just hold on to this for another 10 years, Tesla will be bigger than VW is right now.

Or, they can grow revenues at 50%/year and be bigger than VW is right now in 6 years. (But that would be a different thread.)

 

[FlatSix911]

Fiat just pulled the 500 and 500e(EV) from the US market, so there's one less unworthy competitor.

No loss here... good riddance

 

[jhm]

Or, they can grow revenues at 50%/year and be bigger than VW is right now in 6 years. (But that would be a different thread.)

Ha, you got me. Yeah, that would be much better.

 

[jhm]

Fiat just pulled the 500 and 500e(EV) from the US market, so there's one less unworthy competitor.

As the losses come to an end, the healing process can begin. /s

 

[Doggydogworld]

Or, they can grow revenues at 50%/year and be bigger than VW is right now in 6 years. (But that would be a different thread.)

With this year at ~15% and next year at ~30% they'll need to kick it up a few notches from 2021-24.

I see Tesla moving away from factories. Musk is really focused on FSD and we already have way too many car factories for a robotaxi world. Why duplicate all those expensive stamping presses, welding robots and paint shops? Even if Musk's robotaxi timeline is off by a factor of 3x there will be 50 factories begging to build TeslaTaxis by 2022.

Robotaxis are the bold bet. They're a tech play instead of a grit-and-grind manufacturing play. They are the path to AMZN, GOOG, AAPL valuations and they don't require diluting Musk's ownership stake.

Bet on Robotaxis, not manufacturing. Musk is.

 

[EinSV]

With this year at ~15% and next year at ~30% they'll need to kick it up a few notches from 2021-24.

I see Tesla moving away from factories. Musk is really focused on FSD and we already have way too many car factories for a robotaxi world. Why duplicate all those expensive stamping presses, welding robots and paint shops? Even if Musk's robotaxi timeline is off by a factor of 3x there will be 50 factories begging to build TeslaTaxis by 2022.

Robotaxis are the bold bet. They're a tech play instead of a grit-and-grind manufacturing play. They are the path to AMZN, GOOG, AAPL valuations and they don't require diluting Musk's ownership stake.

Bet on Robotaxis, not manufacturing. Musk is.

Hmm. Tesla is actively preparing Model Y for production next year, building GF3 at blinding speed, actively searching for sites for GF4, getting ready to reveal the Pickup in a few months and start building the Semi late next year, making bold plans to produce 2TWh+ of batteries, etc., etc.

Tesla's plans to build EVs are as ambitious as ever.

Tesla must execute, but I see no fundamental impediment to Tesla continuing to grow at 50%/Y or greater. No more implausible than the ~60%/Y growth for the past 5 years or ~75%/Y growth for the past 3.

Even without Robotaxis.

Plus, obviously, the more EVs on the road, the more data to feed the neural nets, and the more Robotaxis that can be activated once the network is ready.

 

[ReflexFunds]

With this year at ~15% and next year at ~30% they'll need to kick it up a few notches from 2021-24.

I see Tesla moving away from factories. Musk is really focused on FSD and we already have way too many car factories for a robotaxi world. Why duplicate all those expensive stamping presses, welding robots and paint shops? Even if Musk's robotaxi timeline is off by a factor of 3x there will be 50 factories begging to build TeslaTaxis by 2022.

Robotaxis are the bold bet. They're a tech play instead of a grit-and-grind manufacturing play. They are the path to AMZN, GOOG, AAPL valuations and they don't require diluting Musk's ownership stake.

Bet on Robotaxis, not manufacturing. Musk is.

Elon announced Tesla are lining up manufacturing capacity for 2TWh of battery cells per year. This will require a massive acceleration on their manufacturing plans.

If Tesla succeed on Robotaxis, Elon will still want to manufacture as many cars as possible as quickly as possible to drive the Robotaxi price per mile down as quickly as possible and accelerate the retirement of the 1 billion global ICE fleet. If Tesla do not solve Robotaxis, Elon still wants a path for Tesla to be a $trn+ company.

It's much more efficient for Tesla to build their own factories to their own specification than try to bend over backwards to use old equipment and infrastructure designed for different vehicles. Tesla is not going to buy or borrow anyone else's car factories.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

With this year at ~15% and next year at ~30% they'll need to kick it up a few notches from 2021-24.

I see Tesla moving away from factories. Musk is really focused on FSD and we already have way too many car factories for a robotaxi world. Why duplicate all those expensive stamping presses, welding robots and paint shops? Even if Musk's robotaxi timeline is off by a factor of 3x there will be 50 factories begging to build TeslaTaxis by 2022.

Robotaxis are the bold bet. They're a tech play instead of a grit-and-grind manufacturing play. They are the path to AMZN, GOOG, AAPL valuations and they don't require diluting Musk's ownership stake.

Bet on Robotaxis, not manufacturing. Musk is.

You're focused on speed to valuation rather than the mission. Elon's plan has always been to make the plant the product.

All FSD matter for in Elon's mind is remote construction vehicles on Mars. That's 10+ years off, so no problem.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You're focused on speed to valuation rather than the mission.

The mission is to accelerate the transition. A consumer EV displaces one ICE, a Robotaxi displaces a half dozen. Which one accelerates faster?

Hmm. Tesla is actively preparing Model Y for production next year,

Shoehorned into Fremont instead of its own new factory as originally planned...

building GF3 at blinding speed, actively searching for sites for GF4, getting ready to reveal the Pickup in a few months and start building the Semi late next year,

China builds stuff fast, and Tesla needs this one yesterday due to Trump's unpredictability. GF4 announce is long overdue. Semi doesn't need a factory. It's been two years since the Pickup "preveal". Maybe they'll surprise me with an aggressive timeilne, but it's not trending that way.

making bold plans to produce 2TWh+ of batteries, etc., etc.

Elon announced Tesla are lining up manufacturing capacity for 2TWh of battery cells per year.

Car factories will be in surplus, not battery factories. We still need those 2 TWhs. Even more so.

If Tesla succeed on Robotaxis, Elon will still want to manufacture as many cars as possible as quickly as possible...

As I said, there will be tons of surplus car factories to manufacture robotaxis. No reason to duplicate them.

If Tesla do not solve Robotaxis, Elon still wants...

Not solve Robotaxis??? If you said that in his presence he'd fire you on the spot. I am not kidding.

It's much more efficient for Tesla to build their own factories to their own specification

Like it's more efficient for Apple to build their own factories?

You aren't thinking this through from first principles. Tesla won't build or borrow factories. They'll spec out the TeslaTaxi and have factories compete for the right to build them. Let people who've been playing the "Game of Pennies" for decades fight over a few hundred bucks of margin while Tesla pockets $170k of that $200k per car value.

This dramatically accelerates the transition while making Tesla the most valuable company and Musk the richest man on the planet. All he has to do is solve Robotaxis, which in his mind is already a done deal.

 

[EinSV]

@Doggydogworld

Without getting too far into the weeds I fundamentally disagree with the gist of your post.

It is a pointless discussion. And mostly off-topic.

Perhaps if we're both still hanging around in 2023 we can check back in and see how it all plays out.

In the meantime, we'll have to agree to to disagree.

Cheers