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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    The split is basically state-owned (BAIC, SAIC, GAC, etc.) vs. independents like BYD, Geely, Nio and XPeng. Look at December 2019 vs. 2018:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Sales of BYD Qin, e5, Song, Tang and Yuan were down catastrophically (80-95%) in December. Some of this is re-positioning (e.g. Qin), but Tang and Yuan were selling great earlier this year. Geely Emgrand also fell 95% in December after selling great earlier this year. Smaller independents like Nio and XPeng are struggling, too.

    Meanwhile, BAIC was way up in December, even EC which had been down all year. SAIC Baojun E-Series and new MG were strong and more than offset declines in their older Roewe models. The new GAC Aion continued its momentum in December. Chery eQ also gained. The only state-owned company to really fall off the map was JAC.

    I'm not sure what this means. Or how it reflects on Tesla, which is not state-owned but pretty clearly state-sponsored inside China.
     
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  2. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    From Electrek... https://electrek.co/2020/02/04/tesla-electric-car-sales-us-market-share/

    Tesla is keeping the US electric car market alive and growing as new data shows that the California-based automaker owns about 60% of the US market. For many people, when they think of electric vehicles, they think of Tesla. That’s especially true in the US and it becomes clear why when you look at the market share for all-electric vehicles.
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    What the heck kind of heading is that on the graph? A percentage stack up chart cannot show 'faltering' unless it also includes volume info too.
    Example: EV sales are increasing and Tesla is just increasing faster.In the cause and effect realm, without Tesla, other EVs might sell more.
     
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  4. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Electrek often screws stuff up. Tesla did not "keep electric car sales growing" in the US last year. Tesla was flat vs. 2018 and the rest of the market was down. This year should be a little better as Model Y helps Tesla grow somewhat. The rest of the pack also has new models but is diverting supply away from the US to Europe and China where mandates are forcing them to grow.
     
  5. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    No arguments here (Europe may suck up the 3 supply), the infographic is from BloombergNEF though.
     
  6. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  7. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    California 1Q market share data posted on Electrek: Tesla Model 3 beats Honda Civic as top-selling car in California - Electrek

    Tesla Model 3 has outsold the much cheaper Honda Civic to become California’s top-selling passenger car during the first quarter 2020.
    This week, the California New Car Dealers Association released its quarterly report for the first quarter, and it shows Tesla Model 3 even outselling the Honda Civic to become the top-selling passenger car in the state, regardless of the segment. The California New Car Dealers Association classifies the Tesla Model 3 as a “near luxury” vehicle. Model 3 lead the segment — outselling all the competition combined. It has also beat top-selling vehicles like the Honda Civic and Toyota Camry:

    upload_2020-5-29_19-21-56.png
     
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  8. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    #388 jhm, Jul 2, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Let's look at market share in another light. Automakers are competing for capital. Market cap is a measure how much equity capital a company currently attracts.

    Check out this live spreadsheet for current capitalization of the top 25 global automakers, Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

    When I pulled this, I calculated the total market cap for these 25 as $968B. Tesla's market cap $223B is presently 23% of the industry.


    Code:
    Automaker      Mkt Cap ($B)    Share
    Tesla               222.96    23.04%
    Toyota              174.75    18.06%
    Volkswagen           80.38     8.31%
    Honda                44.79     4.63%
    Daimler              44.68     4.62%
    Ferrari              42.92     4.43%
    BMW                  42.01     4.34%
    General Motors       36.58     3.78%
    SAIC                 29.28     3.03%
    BYD                  25.44     2.63%
    Ford                 24.14     2.49%
    Maruti Suzuki        23.99     2.48%
    Nikola               21.79     2.25%
    Fiat Chrysler (FCA)  20.26     2.09%
    Hyundai              19.56     2.02%
    Suzuki               17.29     1.79%
    Subaru               16.30     1.68%
    Geely                15.93     1.65%
    Groupe PSA           14.69     1.52%
    Nissan               14.56     1.50%
    Mahindra              8.83     0.91%
    Renault               7.36     0.76%
    FAW                   7.25     0.75%
    Changan               6.66     0.69%
    Dongfeng              5.39     0.56%
    Total               967.79   100.00%
    
    It is curious that in Q1 2020 Tesla had 29% share of the EV market and now it has 23% of the capitalization of the auto market. This valuation seems consistent with the view that Tesla could ultimately capture more than 20% share of the auto market, maybe even a greater share of the value of the auto market.

    Some, resisting the comparison of Tesla to other automakers on the basis of market cap, have suggested that enterprise value is better metric to size up a company. Enterprise Value merely adds total debt minus cash to market cap. Because Tesla is lightly leveraged compared to peers in the auto industry, there is little difference between Tesla's MktCap and EntValue. Legacy ICE makers are generally highly leveraged to be able to eek out a reasonable return on equity selling low margin products in high volume. So EntValue makes the legacy industry look more valuable. However, when looking at the industry from the perspective of transitioning into an EV industry much of this highly leveraged capital is sunk into low margin ICE production. It is not the kind of capital that is ready to transform itself into competing for share of the emerging EV market. Indeed, a heavy debt load can make it very hard to break away from ICE production. Continued ICE sales are needed to service that debt! To transition into a leading EV maker, a company needs to attract equity. Look at start up Nikola sitting on $22B mkt cap, 2.25% of automaker equity! They've got zero market share, and I've got huge misgivings about their business plan. But what they do have the ability to attract the equity needed to launch into the EV market. Few legacy automakers are able to pull that much equity for transformation. Yes, I think Nikola will be a flop, but not for lack of being able to attract shareholders.

    The important point here is that if you want to compete in the EV market, you need substantial market cap. Enterprise value is a misdirection. Tesla holds the option to leverage up for growth, but does not need to exercise that option at the present moment. No automaker is in a better capital posture to finance growth in the EV space. So not only is that 23% share of equity predictive of EV dominance, it is instrumental to exercising that dominance. Chinese EV makers may be able to make up for some lower market cap by virtue of support from the Chinese government. But I think Toyota is at serious risk of losing market cap because they lack an EV effort commensurate with their current market cap. If Nikola teaches us anything, it's that stock investors are hungry for EV investment vehicles. Legacy automakers are going to need to step up their EV dog & pony show to compete for equity capital.
     
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  9. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #389 EinSV, Jul 2, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Gene Munster seems to be on board with the idea of Tesla taking a substantial portion of the EV market in the long-term. In today's note, he says legacy will have a tough time making "measurable progress" against Tesla's 80% EV market share in the US in the next few years. He also notes that Tesla's could sell 15 million cars in 2030 if it maintains 40-50% growth.

    He does a nice job summarizing the bind legacy is in:

    The auto industry’s dilemma
    It’s becoming more clear that it will be difficult for traditional automakers to catch up to Tesla, as demand for Teslas continues to outpace the broader industry. As the company scales to meet demand, Tesla’s price-performance gap versus other carmakers will widen, because other carmakers are producing EVs sub-scale, creating a dilemma:
    • If traditional auto releases a car with features and range at parity and sells the car at cost, it will be priced 10-25% higher than a comparable Tesla. This will soften demand and lead to further market share loss.
    • If traditional auto subsidizes vehicles to gain market share they will lose money with limited margin cushion. The more they sell, the more money they lose. Taking it to the logical end, we believe car companies that have been around for 50+ years will eventually (10 years from now) be forced to restructure or go out of business.
    The Rest of the Auto Industry Is in Trouble | Loup Ventures

    I continue to believe Tesla's main competition will come from Chinese EV manufacturers who are laying the groundwork to build EVs at scale, and possibly one or two of the US EV startups.

    Sounds like Gene agrees that legacy is basically toast.
     
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  10. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    A core problem for legacy is the structure of their business. They have outsourced everything except power train... and their ICE power train assets are about to become worthless (kind of like oil and gas industry stranded assets). Legacy has to rely on their outsourcing "partners" for an EV power train and, more crucially, the software that makes everything work. Hard to coordinate multiple contractors to produce a coherent integrated software system like Tesla's. (VW ID3 being the prime example)
     
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  11. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    This adds specificity to my point about legacy debt being linked to ICE making assets. It's hard to write down these assets down for strategic reasons when you still have substantial debt to service. But if this is not done strategically, eventually it will be done out of sheer necessity, but the strategic moment will have be lost. You could try to divest assets, but who buys? Ultimately there is restructuring through bankruptcy.
     
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  12. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Gene is way too US centric. The US bought 340k EVs last year, down from 360k in 2018. We may drop again this year. Meanwhile Europe will do 800k+ and China 1m+. The US is no longer a player, and Tesla is the only OEM who even makes an effort here. Toyota will only bring a token amount of the impressive RAV4 Prime here. Even Ford is focusing on Europe for the Mustang Mach-E.

    VW Group will massively outsell Tesla in Europe this year, and may also win in China. They even have a long shot chance of dislodging Tesla from the global #1 position. This assumes they finally fix the ID.3 s/w and don't end the year with 200k cars sitting in parking lots, lol.
     
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  13. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    Although Gene mentions Tesla's staggering 80% US market share he also addresses Tesla's advantages -- and legacy's challenges -- worldwide, including the vast gap in performance between Tesla and legacy this past quarter (quote below is an example).

    The basic problem is that Tesla is already far ahead, growing faster, innovating faster and not burdened by soon-to-be-useless ICE assets. Layer on top of that the massive amount of debt tied to assets that won't be productive for the EV future, and legacy has huge challenges ahead.

    A supercharged gap between Tesla and the auto industry
    • For the June quarter, Tesla reported deliveries of 90,700, down 5% year-over-year (vs. 95,200 in Jun-19), compared to GM down 34%, Toyota down 35%, and Fiat Chrysler down 39%. While an incomplete comparison, in March, Tesla’s global delivery numbers were up 40% year over year compared to the US auto industry down 29%.
    • Tesla deliveries in June were up 3% quarter-over-quarter from (88,400 in Mar-20), despite the 33 day Fremont shutdown headwind in the June quarter compared to 8 days in the March quarter.
    • Tesla produced 82,300 vehicles in Jun-20, vs. 102,000 in Mar-20. A year ago the company made 87,000 cars.
    • Tesla is winning because they have a product that is measurably better than both gas and electric competitors.
     
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  14. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    EV Sales: Global Top 20 May 2020
    [​IMG]

    These numbers are for May 2020. We now know that Tesla delivered 179k in H1. This is an average of nearly 30k per month. Smoothing this out to 5 months is 149k, so the 127,804 plugged in above (as of June 30) is on the conservative side. This is fair enough as Tesla load more deliveries into the third month of the quarter than the first.

    So Tesla is holding a very strong lead over all others, 18% share of market. Hard to see anyone catching up.
    It is sad to see BYD and SAIC fall back so much. I know its been hard for everyone to deal with Covid. ​


    As a long shot, @Doggydogworld says, VW has game and could lead the pack by year end. I guess the VW would include Audi and Porsche, which would be 84,638 for YTD May or 17k per month. VW would need to crank out more than 43k per month in H2. Let's see.
    That would be a pretty spectacular come back in the second half. Let's see some lively competition.
    I wonder how much the market cap of VW could grow if it could sell more than 43k EVs per month in H2 2020. VW has a market cap of $80B, while Tesla is at $224B. Would matching annual EV sales along with Tesla now argue for a comparable market cap? It could. This could imply a tripling of share price. I think investors are hungry for EV maker stocks that can stake a serious claim in this market. Mine goat, just look at the money tossed at Nikola! That's a quarter the market cap of VW just for having plucky audacity and visual aids. Of course VW has much more going on in the EV space than Nikola. I think the key thing they lack is to deliver on serious volume, albeit this implies that they must be able to build competitive EVs priced right with a healthy gross margin.

    Perhaps I should state this more simply, if VW group were well positioned for the BEV market to match Tesla on revenue, it would be worth more than Toyota and about as much as Tesla. This also implies that the VW BEV business would be worth at least twice the ICE business. If they could realize that sort of market valuation, it would seem much easier to divest the ICE business. If they could match Tesla on BEVs, they could divest or close down all the ICE business and still merit a valuation comparable to Tesla. I think Tesla becoming a mega-cap (mkt cap > $200B) could radically change how VW looks at its own valuation.
     
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  15. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    SEAT and Skoda sold 2300 rebadged e-Ups in NL+NO+SP through June, and I presume some in the rest of Europe. I figure VW Group sold 105k+ EVs in 1H 2020. As you note they are far behind Tesla, who is ramping. But VAG also has some 2H cards to play:

    - ID.3, which they are building but not yet selling
    - Two 300k EV factories in China coming online this fall

    It seems EU and China mandates originally required VW to sell 300k+ EVs in the 2nd half, and they've built capacity for it. Plus they'll sell a few thousand Taycans and such in the US and elsewhere. COVID is a wildcard, though. By decimating ICE sales it also reduces the number of EVs that VW and others must sell to meet the mandates. Once VW clears their 2020 hurdle it makes sense to delay further deliveries until January. That could cap them at 300-350k vs. the 425-450k in their original plan. That's why I say the #1 slot is a long shot.

    Even if they did beat Tesla I don't think it will affect market cap. VW is valued as a carmaker, not a tree growing to the sky.
     
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  16. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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    VW’s challenge is getting franchise dealers to not anti-sell their EVs.
     
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  17. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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  18. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    VW hasn't sold any EVs. Just hybrids. They may fool regulators but not consumers.
     
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  19. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Daimler Sharpens Cost Cutting With Sales Recovery on Horizon

    This article shows how Daimler is wrestling with the facts that Tesla sells 10X as many EVs and has a market cap 5X Daimler. They are looking back a more than just a lost year.

    As I've suggested, EV market share and market cap are becoming linked. The ability of a company like Daimler to compete in the EV race depends on attracting equity investors who are willing to burn cash to catch up with Tesla. Also the strength of the stock becomes critical for attracting and retaining the talent necessary to advance in a new tech race. Daimler has seen its stock price plunge 29% over the last year, which could leave talent cold about stock-based compensation. Without the talent, a legacy OEM just can't catch up on the tech. And without the capital, they can't make good on the talent they've got.

    As investors in legacy OEMs figure out just how lethal this situation is, I can only expect shareholders to defect. An OEM that has 1/5 the market cap and 1/10 the EV sales as Tesla will never be able to catch up. Just to hold onto 1/10 the EV sales is a major challenge, but will be necessary to hold on to 1/10 the market cap. Daimler needs to think in term of strategic cannibalization of it ICE business to gain EV market share. It they don't cannibalize their own sales, Tesla and potentially other hungry EV makers will do it for them.
     
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  20. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    It would be super cool for someone to put together a meme of market cap per EV sold for various automakers.

    A number of years ago, Tesla bears would mock Tesla by pointing how high the market cap per vehicle was. This was a pretty silly critique at the time for reasons that have be well vindicated over time. But to divide market cap by specifically EVs makes the implicit statement that it take equity capital to grow an EV business. A high ratio is actually good if the company is aggressively growing their EV business. But otherwise we need to raise the question, what is that ICE-based market cap good for? Legacy automakers will be forced to convert the value they have in their legacy business into an investment into their EV business. So mkt cap to EV sales is an upper measure of how much equity capital they focus invest in growing their EV base. Had this rate never been very high for Tesla, it would never have grown so quickly.
     
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