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Interesting reading regarding the 1H20 profitability numbers for major automakers...

German automotive report finds Tesla's development 'astonishing'

Neil Winton, writing in Forbes, cites a report from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisberg, Germany by Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, which found that the financial debacles at BMW and other manufacturers have revealed weaknesses that will require action. “BMW, with traditionally good profits, suffered its historically highest losses in the second quarter,” Dudenhoeffer said. “BMW has launched an austerity program and announced job cuts. [The data] shows that hidden problems were revealed at BMW during the corona crisis.”

“Tesla is becoming a very serious competitor in the premium market. Its development compared with BMW, Audi, and Mercedes is astonishing,” Dudenhoeffer continued. “Tesla is far from the other premium manufacturers [in terms of profits], with the exception of Porsche. A startup with enormous investments in new plants is overshadowing the established premium manufacturers.”
 
Here's a comparison of Tesla's reported quarterly deliveries Events & Presentations | Tesla, Inc. against the estimates from EV Sales: World

quarterly global ev sales.png


Looks like comparing the market share percentage year-over-year, Tesla has been increasing. It'll be interesting to see if next quarter Tesla will exceed its 19.8% market share record of 2019 Q3.
 
From Electrek... Goodbye ICE, hello EV!
Taycan electric car is already Porsche's best-selling model, destroys Panamera sales - Electrek

The Taycan electric car has already become Porsche’s best-selling car in Europe, destroying the sales of the Panamera, its closest gas-powered competitor. In terms of specs and design, the Porsche hit the mark with the Taycan, but the high price has raised questions about the vehicle’s potential success.

Porsche only started delivering the Taycan less than a year ago, and after ramping up production, the sales volumes are starting to be significant for a $100,000 performance vehicle. In North America, sales are a bit slower, but in Europe, the Taycan is starting to do well.
Last month, the Taycan became Porsche’s best-selling vehicle in Europe, outselling the Porsche 911 with 1,183 units:


EihQCKOWoAEoM0t
 
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From Electrek... Goodbye ICE, hello EV!
Taycan electric car is already Porsche's best-selling model, destroys Panamera sales - Electrek

The Taycan electric car has already become Porsche’s best-selling car in Europe, destroying the sales of the Panamera, its closest gas-powered competitor. In terms of specs and design, the Porsche hit the mark with the Taycan, but the high price has raised questions about the vehicle’s potential success.

Porsche only started delivering the Taycan less than a year ago, and after ramping up production, the sales volumes are starting to be significant for a $100,000 performance vehicle. In North America, sales are a bit slower, but in Europe, the Taycan is starting to do well.
Last month, the Taycan became Porsche’s best-selling vehicle in Europe, outselling the Porsche 911 with 1,183 units:


EihQCKOWoAEoM0t

I'd love to see the year over year numbers, though the size of the drops is big enough that might be a clue. My read on this chart - looks like the units are vaguely equal in total, with the higher priced Taycan taking share from the other models (which I assume are mostly lower priced vehicles, but don't actually know).

A tricky dance Porsche is trying to work through, but at least there are signs here that they're in the dance and trying.
 
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From Electrek... Goodbye ICE, hello EV!
Taycan electric car is already Porsche's best-selling model, destroys Panamera sales - Electrek

The Taycan electric car has already become Porsche’s best-selling car in Europe, destroying the sales of the Panamera, its closest gas-powered competitor. In terms of specs and design, the Porsche hit the mark with the Taycan, but the high price has raised questions about the vehicle’s potential success.

Porsche only started delivering the Taycan less than a year ago, and after ramping up production, the sales volumes are starting to be significant for a $100,000 performance vehicle. In North America, sales are a bit slower, but in Europe, the Taycan is starting to do well.
Last month, the Taycan became Porsche’s best-selling vehicle in Europe, outselling the Porsche 911 with 1,183 units:


EihQCKOWoAEoM0t
So in Aug, 23.4% of Porsche sales were EVs. That is pretty impressive. As they increase the EV mix, they become less vulnerable to cannibalization.
 
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Europe Leads in EV Sales, but for How Long?
Interesting commentary and infographic which includes EVs and Plug-in Hybrids in the vehicle count.

In a 2020 survey, 71% of U.S. drivers said they were interested in getting an EV—so why are sales so far behind Europe and China?
In that same survey, 50% of drivers cited a lack of public charging stations as the main factor for preventing them from buying an EV.


View attachment 662413
1621041297905.png
 
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Tesla now owns nearly two-thirds of the all-electric car market in the US. ;)


"The all-electric car segment is booming in the U.S., significantly outpacing the general car market in the first seven months of the year. According to the car registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), from January to July 2021, some 255,393 electric vehicles have been registered, which is 113% more than a year ago (119,628). That's not bad considering that the new car registrations increased only 30% year-over-year. The market share for BEVs (hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are marginal) stands at about 2.6%, compared to 1.6% a year ago.

Tesla remains the biggest player in the BEV segment with 168,021 registrations (up 75% year-over-year), which is almost 66% of the total! That's a big share, but a year ago, it was closer to 80% (about 96,000 out of 119,628), which means that the combined effort of other manufacturers now has a bigger effect. The Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 remain the most popular models."

BEV registrations in the U.S. - January-July 2021

  • Tesla Model Y - 93,708 ("rose nearly fivefold")
  • Tesla Model 3 - 68,448 (up 16% year-over-year from about 59,000)
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV - 21,896 (up 138% from 9,185)
  • Ford Mustang Mach-E - 13,951
  • Nissan LEAF - 9,435
  • Volkswagen ID.4 - 8,403
  • Porsche Taycan (all versions) - 6,071
  • Hyundai Kona Electric - 6,069
  • Audi e-tron (all versions) - 5,473
  • Kia Niro EV - 4,081
  • Tesla Model S - 4,054 (down 46% from about 7,500)
  • Tesla Model X - 1,811 (down 83% from 10,612)
  • other - 11,993
  • Total - 255,393 (up 133%)
 
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Tesla now owns nearly two-thirds of the all-electric car market in the US. ;)


"The all-electric car segment is booming in the U.S., significantly outpacing the general car market in the first seven months of the year. According to the car registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), from January to July 2021, some 255,393 electric vehicles have been registered, which is 113% more than a year ago (119,628). That's not bad considering that the new car registrations increased only 30% year-over-year. The market share for BEVs (hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are marginal) stands at about 2.6%, compared to 1.6% a year ago.

Tesla remains the biggest player in the BEV segment with 168,021 registrations (up 75% year-over-year), which is almost 66% of the total! That's a big share, but a year ago, it was closer to 80% (about 96,000 out of 119,628), which means that the combined effort of other manufacturers now has a bigger effect. The Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 remain the most popular models."

BEV registrations in the U.S. - January-July 2021

  • Tesla Model Y - 93,708 ("rose nearly fivefold")
  • Tesla Model 3 - 68,448 (up 16% year-over-year from about 59,000)
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV - 21,896 (up 138% from 9,185)
  • Ford Mustang Mach-E - 13,951
  • Nissan LEAF - 9,435
  • Volkswagen ID.4 - 8,403
  • Porsche Taycan (all versions) - 6,071
  • Hyundai Kona Electric - 6,069
  • Audi e-tron (all versions) - 5,473
  • Kia Niro EV - 4,081
  • Tesla Model S - 4,054 (down 46% from about 7,500)
  • Tesla Model X - 1,811 (down 83% from 10,612)
  • other - 11,993
  • Total - 255,393 (up 133%)
Looks like the EV adoption S curve is starting to kick in.
 
Looks like the EV adoption S curve is starting to kick in.
Agreed... however, I am still amazed that 48 out of the 50 states had a fossil fuel Truck or SUV as the top-selling vehicle in 2020!
The only two states with conventional car sales leading were California and Florida.


1632513815151.png
 
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Tesla now owns nearly two-thirds of the all-electric car market in the US. ;)


"The all-electric car segment is booming in the U.S., significantly outpacing the general car market in the first seven months of the year. According to the car registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), from January to July 2021, some 255,393 electric vehicles have been registered, which is 113% more than a year ago (119,628). That's not bad considering that the new car registrations increased only 30% year-over-year. The market share for BEVs (hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are marginal) stands at about 2.6%, compared to 1.6% a year ago.

Tesla remains the biggest player in the BEV segment with 168,021 registrations (up 75% year-over-year), which is almost 66% of the total! That's a big share, but a year ago, it was closer to 80% (about 96,000 out of 119,628), which means that the combined effort of other manufacturers now has a bigger effect. The Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 remain the most popular models."

BEV registrations in the U.S. - January-July 2021

  • Tesla Model Y - 93,708 ("rose nearly fivefold")
  • Tesla Model 3 - 68,448 (up 16% year-over-year from about 59,000)
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV - 21,896 (up 138% from 9,185)
  • Ford Mustang Mach-E - 13,951
  • Nissan LEAF - 9,435
  • Volkswagen ID.4 - 8,403
  • Porsche Taycan (all versions) - 6,071
  • Hyundai Kona Electric - 6,069
  • Audi e-tron (all versions) - 5,473
  • Kia Niro EV - 4,081
  • Tesla Model S - 4,054 (down 46% from about 7,500)
  • Tesla Model X - 1,811 (down 83% from 10,612)
  • other - 11,993
  • Total - 255,393 (up 133%)
It is a bit disappointing that Tesla's share of the EV market has declined from 80% last year in the US. But two things help me to put this into perspective.

First, 66% of 2.6% EV penetration is 1.72% share of the total US auto market, while last year 80% or 1.6% was only 1.28. So again of 0.44% is solid. Meanwhile competitors attempting to catch up in the EV market risk massive cannibalization of the ICE portion of their auto market share.

Second, the supreme challenge is market share of the global market. Exporting US produced vehicles is strategically important to building up international markets until more production can come online in each major market.

So how is Tesla doing on the global market?
 
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It is a bit disappointing that Tesla's share of the EV market has declined from 80% last year in the US. But two things help me to put this into perspective.

First, 66% of 2.6% EV penetration is 1.72% share of the total US auto market, while last year 80% or 1.6% was only 1.28. So again of 0.44% is solid. Meanwhile competitors attempting to catch up in the EV market risk massive cannibalization of the ICE portion of their auto market share.

Second, the supreme challenge is market share of the global market. Exporting US produced vehicles is strategically important to building up international markets until more production can come online in each major market.

So how is Tesla doing on the global market?
Is Tesla still demand or production limited?

If production remains the limit, then I don't care much about market share -- unless Tesla could get new plants built faster, and logistics (esp of battery cells) better handled. Can they? Also, do competitors speed things up faster than Tesla on this front?
 
Is Tesla still demand or production limited?

If production remains the limit, then I don't care much about market share -- unless Tesla could get new plants built faster, and logistics (esp of battery cells) better handled. Can they? Also, do competitors speed things up faster than Tesla on this front?
They have always been production limited even with 50% increase in production every year.. Worse now with six month wait. Austin and Berlin should come online by the end of the year which will help.
It will be years before competition can ramp up volume and by then Tesla will have leaped even further ahead.
 
Is Tesla still demand or production limited?

If production remains the limit, then I don't care much about market share -- unless Tesla could get new plants built faster, and logistics (esp of battery cells) better handled. Can they? Also, do competitors speed things up faster than Tesla on this front?
Hmm, it seems to me that the best time to gain market share is when you are production limited. You can can keep prices high and get good early ROI on building out new capacity. But when you're demand limited, you need to put out better product at lower prices to gain share and to utilize excess production capacity. Right now, I think that the whole EV market is a race to ramp up the supply chain and bring more product to market. Later on when EVs dominate the auto market, I think competition will revolve around who has the better product for the money will really matter.
 
Hmm, it seems to me that the best time to gain market share is when you are production limited. You can can keep prices high and get good early ROI on building out new capacity. But when you're demand limited, you need to put out better product at lower prices to gain share and to utilize excess production capacity. Right now, I think that the whole EV market is a race to ramp up the supply chain and bring more product to market. Later on when EVs dominate the auto market, I think competition will revolve around who has the better product for the money will really matter.
How do you gain market share if you are production limited?
I can understand increasing prices and profits and that can help you build factories (which Tesla is doing) but they won't be producing for a year or two.
 
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