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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production | CleanTechnica

    Ok, Jaguar, you've got a serious back order on your iPace. What comes next? Will Jag jump into producing the volume of batteries they need to meet demand for iPace? Are they willing to burn cash like an Elon to be a serious EV maker? I hope they go for it. I also wish they would just partner with Tesla on the Supercharger network. I've always wished that Jaguar would step into the Tesla ecosystem. They can keep making classy cars and delivery the best EV experience along with Tesla.

    We've been chatting about the possibility of Tesla supplying packs to other OEMs. One way to approach this is for an OEM like Jag to participate in a Gigafactory JV along with Panasonic and Tesla. So they bring their own capital to the party, but benefit from the economy of scale that a GF provides. This could become more attractive to Tesla if it includes a commitment to share in the Supercharger Network. So Tesla benefits from better utilization of shared infrastructure as well as brand enhancement through association.

    Part of my thesis about coming consolidation in the auto industry is that I think we will see a lot of alliances and eventual mergers. Basically, the cash burn required in R&D, scale up of battery production and charging and other EV service networks it a tall order for any automaker. Just look at how Tesla is punished for attempting this. Shall a smaller OEM take on all these risks to get to the scale that makes this all work. Basically, a small but classy OEM like Jaguar could participate within the Tesla ecosystem (or some other EV alliance) and not have to triple or quintuple their existing scale to get to some profitable scale. Jag could eventually make some 200k EVs per year and exit the ICE business. If that is the extent of their aspiration, then hooking up with a solid EV ecosystem could take a lot of risk out of this transition. Another alternative to getting into the Tesla ecosystem would be to get into an alliance with other OEMs trying to make the same transition from ICE to EVs. But because Tesla has done so much of the hard work already, it seems that one could move much more directly into the EV market in alliance with Tesla. I recall that several years ago there was some suggestion that BMW was in conversation with Tesla. There was definitely the notion that BMW could share in the Supercharger network and perhaps share in battery tech as well. But then BMW pulled away from that in a hurry as if their pride was hurt that they might do well to work with Tesla. So where are they now? Tesla is still eating their lunch. One wonders where they would be today had they cooperated with Tesla. So I think all of these OEMs are going to need to weigh the pros and cons of a go it alone EV strategy. It seems that if you are not committed to massive cash burn like Tesla, you need to be in an alliance. But why be in an alliance that is not really competent in end-to-end EV experience yet?
     
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  2. Tim

    Tim Member

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    I'm not sure where the blog got it's range numbers, but baic advertises a 318km NEDC range with a 48kwh battery for the ex360. I think they get their batteries from catl. Doesn't seem like it's anything revolutionary, but its still good to see more long range EVs produced.
     
  3. renim

    renim Member

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    CATL and BYD and Tesla panasonic would be the world's 3 largest automotive li ion battery makers. my gut feel is that due to bus sales, both CATL and BYD are large than Tesla on a kWh basis.

    anyone can make a deal with CATL.
     
  4. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    EV Sales: Battery Makers 2017
    Battery Makers 2017: Panasonic & BYD Hold Majority Of Market

    Here's how battery makers stacked up in 2017, just autos, not buses. Batteries grew 70% yoy vs 58% growth for EVs. This supports the view that the average battery size per car is going up. Notice that 64% of the battery market is supplied by the top 3. This is very high consolidation already, but the top 3 are not growing at 70% or higher, so the field is actually widening.

    1111.png
     
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  5. renim

    renim Member

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    2017纯电动客车动力电池装机量TOP10 CATL/惠州比亚迪/沃特玛占比超50% - OFweek新能源汽车网
    now for some of the other automotive li ion perspective
    upload_2018-7-31_11-31-21.png
    cars are 38% by kWh
    buses are 39%by kWh
    others (ie council trucks etc) are 23%

    so roughly, to calculate a Chinese battery makers automotive sales, take their car kWh and multiply it by (100/38) ie 2.6.

    so if byd is 4.69 MWh cars li ion, then their automotive li ion is likely to be around 4.69 *(100/38) = 12.34MWh
    same for CATL...same
     
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  6. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I'd point out that BAIC only sold 1 EC in June, while EX topped the charts. My impression is that they may have suspended the EC line, but that's just speculation on my part. At any rate, I think things are changing quickly. A longer range may be becoming a requirement for having a best selling EV.
     
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  7. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Wow, I'm impressed to see so much battery going into trucks.

    From the point of view of displacing fuel, this is pretty cool. Commercial use can cycle batteries 3 or 4 times as frequently, thus, have 3 or 4 times the impact on fuel demand as personal vehicles.

    Nice find.
     
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  8. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    8 New Electric & Plug-In Hybrid Cars In China | CleanTechnica

    Here is more info on the BAIC EX360. The range is just at about 200 mile range on 48 kWh pack. I can't find anything to corroborate an EX series with 260 mile range, so it appears to be an error.

    Even so, the EX360 seem to signal a transition to long range BEVs and higher power. In fact the EX360 tag highlights the 360 nM torque. The EX260 had 260 nM torque. So China is developing a taste for higher power EVs.
     
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  9. renim

    renim Member

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    #49 renim, Jul 30, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2018
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  10. renim

    renim Member

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    oh look chinese also learning about EV range
    upload_2018-7-31_14-16-34.png
    hmm thats a 70kWh vehicle called Weilai ES8
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. renim

    renim Member

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  12. Tim

    Tim Member

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  13. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Thanks.
    We know them as NIO outside China. There's been some press about it. It's a bit overweight, which contributes to the poor range.
     
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  14. GSP

    GSP Member

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  15. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    it's there, so far in 2018 (data courtesy of insideevs.com and evadc.org)
    its hard to cut/[aste spreadsheet, even tho i've done computers for 49 years
    Honda Clarity PHEV $33,400 (47+gas) 17 kWh

    2018 U.S. EV SALES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL kWh Total kWh in 2018
    Honda Clarity PHEV 594 881 1061 1049 1639 1445 8,114 17 137,938
     
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  16. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  17. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Code:
    2018 U.S. EV SALES	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	TOTAL	kWh	Total kWh
    Honda Clarity PHEV	594	881	1061	1049	1639	1445	6,669	17	113,373
    
    The code tag is handy if you have text with tabs as long as the headings and values aren't too mismatched.
     
  18. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I've spent a little time analyzing the cars on this info graphic. It is natural to suppose that all else being equal, many consumers would prefer a lower price and higher range. This partial ordering defines vehicles along an efficient frontier that have no alternative that are both cheaper and lower range. This frontier is roughly a straight line from the Smart Electric at $23.9k for 58 miles to the Model 3 LR at $44k for 310 miles. Fitting this line leads to the following,

    EfficientPrice = $19k + $75×RangeMiles
    Any BEV well above this means you are paying a premium for something (Model S/X) or just paying too much for range. Longer term the premium above the line needs to have a clear value proposition to support it. One of the worst prices is the BMW i3. At $44,450 it offers just 114 miles range. The efficient price would be $27,550, but it is priced at a $16,900 premium to this. Certainly a BMW ought to be able to command some premium as a high end brand, but will BMW fans really support a $17k premium when for the same money they could get a 310 mile range in a Tesla Model 3?

    Curiously the incremental price in the Model 3 series is about $9000 for 90 to 105 extra miles of range, so $86 to $100 per incremental mile of range. So even here you are paying a slight premium to $75 for incremental range. Even so the Model 3 LR is easily the best value for the money.
     
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  19. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    to quote Valentine Michael Smith "I am but an egg" thanks. i will try to muddle thru (migraines for 10 daze so far)
     
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  20. renim

    renim Member

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    'If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance is ahead, with 11% share (Up 1% regarding 2017), followed by BYD and Tesla, both with 9% share, while BAIC, the BMW Group and the Volkswagen Group all race for #4, with 8% share'
    EV Sales: Global Top 20 - June 2018


    upload_2018-8-1_9-22-28.png
    ROW rest of world
     
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