EV Market Share

[mspohr]

BYD NEV sales in 2018 exceed 240,000 units

Byd new energy vehicle sales 2018 were 247k.
December 2018 were 46k.

What's New Energy?
Market speak for hybrids and EVs.
To be specific, the annual sales of new energy PVs totaled 227,152 units, of which 103,263 units were all-electric vehicles and 123,889 units were plug-in hybrid vehicles. In addition, 20,659 new energy CVs were sold throughout 2018.

And I thought electricity was old energy.

 

[RobStark]

NEV also includes FCEV.

 

[jhm]

Carlos Ghosn's 2 business give some options.

Initial phase (ie LEAF gen 1, Renault Fluence etc) was a 4 billion euro ($5 billion USD then) investment,
Nissan went inhouse, spent 3 billion euro for the LEAF (inhouse cell manufacture, inhouse motor, inhouse magnets, inhouse controllers etc)
Renault outsourced, spent 1 billion euro (about 965 million euro from memory) for the Fluence (sedan), Zoe (hatch), Twizy (airbag in a quad) and Kangoo (work van). which roughly covered the entire range of Renault's offering. so for a 1/3 less money, Renault bought 4x the variety of Nissan - roughly an order of magnitude less capital.

2 differing strategies, 1 CEO.

after a false spy scandal, that 2IC from Renault departed to lead VW electrification efforts.

Electric motors can be very commodity, much more so than ICE
li ion cells can be very commodity
electric controllers not as much commodity, but still at Chinese scale

there is a simple way for GM finance growing EVs to 10M per year. Do it in China, with expat and Chinese expertise...

Yes, certainly a company can outsource stuff and reduce their capital expenditure, but that usually means that there are vendors that must do the capital expenditure to supply the clients. Most OEMs do this quite alot. But if you think of the total automotive market as including all suppliers and not just the final auto assemblers and marketers, there is a much bigger market to go after. So generally I think of this bigger market, though it is much harder to quantify market share that way.

Most automakers do build most of their drivetrains. If for EVs, they outsource most of their drivetrain, they can certainly maintain unit sales for lower capex, but the share of the cars value that they actually build will go down. I actually think this is where China can be most disruptive in the West. If about a third of the value of an EV is in the battery pack and China supplies that to a western automaker, then effectively China is capturing a third share of the car of the western automaker. This may prove to be just as valuable to Chinese automakers as capturing a third of market share in the west. If GM retains 10% market share of car by outsourcing 30% of what they would otherwise do themselves, is that any better that just retaining a 7% market share? I'm not sure. This is more of a philosophical question. Though for autoworkers in US this might not feel so philosophical when a bunch of jobs are lost.

 

[RobStark]

US EV Sales Surpass 2% In 2018 — 9 EV Sales Charts | CleanTechnica

 

[jhm]

World’s Top 10 Plug-In Automotive Groups In 2018

Here's how 2018 played out. Tesla took the lead position, but BYD and BAIC are not going to take this like. I expect competition among the top EV makers to heat up. This is why I am confident that EV sales will continue to grow around 50%/y.

What is harder to tell is which OEMs will try to catch up. For example, VW needs to triple EV sales just to catch up with Tesla and BYD. Even though they are laying plans to sell 22M EVs over the next 10 years, I don't see how that will catch up with either Tesla or BYD. Regardless the likes of VW, Toyota or GM are going to step up the pace well above 50%/y to catch up and retain their stature in the auto industry. This will be a brutal race. Anyone thinking that EVs will grow at a mere 30%/y or less has their eyes on the wrong players. Tesla is the pacesetter now.

 

[mblakele]

View attachment 388684
World’s Top 10 Plug-In Automotive Groups In 2018

Here's how 2018 played out. Tesla took the lead position, but BYD and BAIC are not going to take this like. I expect competition among the top EV makers to heat up. This is why I am confident that EV sales will continue to grow around 50%/y.

What is harder to tell is which OEMs will try to catch up. For example, VW needs to triple EV sales just to catch up with Tesla and BYD. Even though they are laying plans to sell 22M EVs over the next 10 years, I don't see how that will catch up with either Tesla or BYD. Regardless the likes of VW, Toyota or GM are going to step up the pace well above 50%/y to catch up and retain their stature in the auto industry. This will be a brutal race. Anyone thinking that EVs will grow at a mere 30%/y or less has their eyes on the wrong players. Tesla is the pacesetter now.

Note that those numbers include PHEVs and BEVs. With EVs alone, BYD is at 105k according to EV Sales: 2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated) — and also note a comment on that site, saying the VW number should be closer to 100k.

Compare this to 2017 when Tesla was at 103k and in 5th place, while Renault-Nissan was in 1st with 119k. Despite growing over 60%, Renault-Nissan slipped into 3rd and by a sizable margin.

 

[adiggs]

Note that those numbers include PHEVs and BEVs. With EVs alone, BYD is at 105k according to EV Sales: 2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated) — and also note a comment on that site, saying the VW number should be closer to 100k.

Compare this to 2017 when Tesla was at 103k and in 5th place, while Renault-Nissan was in 1st with 119k. Despite growing over 60%, Renault-Nissan slipped into 3rd and by a sizable margin.

Brutal market, where growing by 60% is good enough to slip from 1st to 3rd.

 

[neroden]

View attachment 388684
World’s Top 10 Plug-In Automotive Groups In 2018

Here's how 2018 played out. Tesla took the lead position, but BYD and BAIC are not going to take this like. I expect competition among the top EV makers to heat up. This is why I am confident that EV sales will continue to grow around 50%/y.

What is harder to tell is which OEMs will try to catch up. For example, VW needs to triple EV sales just to catch up with Tesla and BYD. Even though they are laying plans to sell 22M EVs over the next 10 years, I don't see how that will catch up with either Tesla or BYD. Regardless the likes of VW, Toyota or GM are going to step up the pace well above 50%/y to catch up and retain their stature in the auto industry. This will be a brutal race. Anyone thinking that EVs will grow at a mere 30%/y or less has their eyes on the wrong players. Tesla is the pacesetter now.

Diess is serious about making VW a player.

You are right that BYD and BAIC are going to accelerate as fast as they can to try to keep up with Tesla.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are barely scraping out #3 *combined* and they just tossed out the mastermind behind Renault and Nissan's EV plans -- I think they're going to sink backwards into the pack.

Everyone with PHEVs is hamstrung; BEVs are growing much faster and PHEVs are declining. BYD will probably be able to make the switch because they've planned to do so all along, but the others... not so much. BAIC has high pure-BEV numbers.

Brutal market, where growing by 60% is good enough to slip from 1st to 3rd.

Yeah, isn't it? Tesla is the pacesetter. BAIC is chasing close behind, with BYD trying to catch up. Everyone else is a lap behind.

 

[winfield100]

Diess is serious about making VW a player.

You are right that BYD and BAIC are going to accelerate as fast as they can to try to keep up with Tesla.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are barely scraping out #3 *combined* and they just tossed out the mastermind behind Renault and Nissan's EV plans -- I think they're going to sink backwards into the pack.

Everyone with PHEVs is hamstrung; BEVs are growing much faster and PHEVs are declining. BYD will probably be able to make the switch because they've planned to do so all along, but the others... not so much. BAIC has high pure-BEV numbers.



Yeah, isn't it? Tesla is the pacesetter. BAIC is chasing close behind, with BYD trying to catch up. Everyone else is a lap behind.

where will VW get their "Engine"?
a car is basically a chassis plus engine
an EV, to me is a chassis plus a humungous or teeny tiny battery
from inside EVs 2018 data, BEV _only_ (Chinese data is not easy to get, and i'm a dilletante)

Same chart, except "motive power" ie batteries

 

[adiggs]

where will VW get their "Engine"?
a car is basically a chassis plus engine
an EV, to me is a chassis plus a humungous or teeny tiny battery
from inside EVs 2018 data, BEV _only_ (Chinese data is not easy to get, and i'm a dilletante)
View attachment 388752
Same chart, except "motive power" ie batteries
View attachment 388753

I find myself thinking about the various electrifying transportation markets in these terms more and more. My napkin math estimate of the class 8 commercial truck market is it's a 300k truck/year market in North America today. At 1 MWh/truck, that's 300 GWh/year worth of cell and pack manufacturing needed for the class 8 trucks.

Your chart only claims to cover 18 GWh worth of batteries in 2018.


H'mm - I think there's a whole series of posts on this topic. The takeaway for the moment - the market that EV's are growing into is .. big, and as the costs on EV's becomes increasingly approachable, the rest of their characteristics are going to get us closer and closer to the industry wide Osborne moment (where sales of the ICE competition pretty much stops due to widespread recognition that you'd be spending too much for too little, compared to the electric alternative).

My guess of the moment is that Tesla is about 2 orders of magnitude too small in their cell and pack manufacturing scale (instead of 18 GWh/year, there is various industry demand of ~2 TWh/year demand).

 

[jhm]

Everyone with PHEVs is hamstrung; BEVs are growing much faster and PHEVs are declining. BYD will probably be able to make the switch because they've planned to do so all along, but the others... not so much. BAIC has high pure-BEV numbers.

I think this is important for us to keep in mind as we think about the rankings for all plug-in vehicles. We saw this clearly in the electric bus market: once the market figured out that PHEVs offered no serious advantage over BEVs, the PHEV buses lost market share rapidly. This should be a lesson to auto makers that think they can build up a durable EV portfolio with lots of PHEVs. Playing catch up while replacing declining PHEV sales and battling battery supply constraints will not be easy, to say the least.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think this is important for us to keep in mind as we think about the rankings for all plug-in vehicles. We saw this clearly in the electric bus market: once the market figured out that PHEVs offered no serious advantage over BEVs, the PHEV buses lost market share rapidly. This should be a lesson to auto makers that think they can build up a durable EV portfolio with lots of PHEVs. Playing catch up while replacing declining PHEV sales and battling battery supply constraints will not be easy, to say the least.

And, I'll note here again, this is why I like Nissan using serialization in its hybrids: key drivetrain components end up being the same as in BEVs.

 

[jhm]

I find myself thinking about the various electrifying transportation markets in these terms more and more. My napkin math estimate of the class 8 commercial truck market is it's a 300k truck/year market in North America today. At 1 MWh/truck, that's 300 GWh/year worth of cell and pack manufacturing needed for the class 8 trucks.

Your chart only claims to cover 18 GWh worth of batteries in 2018.


H'mm - I think there's a whole series of posts on this topic. The takeaway for the moment - the market that EV's are growing into is .. big, and as the costs on EV's becomes increasingly approachable, the rest of their characteristics are going to get us closer and closer to the industry wide Osborne moment (where sales of the ICE competition pretty much stops due to widespread recognition that you'd be spending too much for too little, compared to the electric alternative).

My guess of the moment is that Tesla is about 2 orders of magnitude too small in their cell and pack manufacturing scale (instead of 18 GWh/year, there is various industry demand of ~2 TWh/year demand).

I'm with you on this. EVs are just a sexy way to sell bigass batteries. I've calculated elsewhere that the automotive industry would need about 10TWh of annual capacity to go fully electric today. Lately I've been pondering this question:

Can Tesla reach 20% market share of the whole auto market by 2030?

Today 20% market share would require about 2 TWh of batteries for about 20M vehicles. In 2030, we are looking at about 26M vehicles and maybe 3 TWh of supply.

Those numbers may seem big, but in terms of annual growth rate it is increasing unit sales 47% on average each year for the next 12 years. So I don't think this is far off from Musk's own thinking about growing revenue 50% annually.

Imagine the top five EV makers all trying to keep up with Tesla as it approaches 20% share of auto market (and maybe more than 25% of the EV market). EV share of the market likely gets to 80% or more by 2030. But if other EV makers fail to keep pace Tesla ultimately walks away with more than 25% of total auto market. The auto industry simply cannot afford to let Tesla "go it alone." China won't allow it, unless Tesla becomes a vehicle for China to export EVs and components to the rest of the world. So I don't think things will play out like that. Rather I think, EVs will command at least 80% of the auto market by 2030, if Tesla presses for 20%.

 

[adiggs]

I'm with you on this. EVs are just a sexy way to sell bigass batteries. I've calculated elsewhere that the automotive industry would need about 10TWh of annual capacity to go fully electric today. Lately I've been pondering this question:

Can Tesla reach 20% market share of the whole auto market by 2030?

Today 20% market share would require about 2 TWh of batteries for about 20M vehicles. In 2030, we are looking at about 26M vehicles and maybe 3 TWh of supply.

Those numbers may seem big, but in terms of annual growth rate it is increasing unit sales 47% on average each year for the next 12 years. So I don't think this is far off from Musk's own thinking about growing revenue 50% annually.

Imagine the top five EV makers all trying to keep up with Tesla as it approaches 20% share of auto market (and maybe more than 25% of the EV market). EV share of the market likely gets to 80% or more by 2030. But if other EV makers fail to keep pace Tesla ultimately walks away with more than 25% of total auto market. The auto industry simply cannot afford to let Tesla "go it alone." China won't allow it, unless Tesla becomes a vehicle for China to export EVs and components to the rest of the world. So I don't think things will play out like that. Rather I think, EVs will command at least 80% of the auto market by 2030, if Tesla presses for 20%.

One of the ideas that this way of thinking emphasizes - we need to be hearing about manufacturing facilities that will be producing 10's or 100's of GWh/year worth of cells and/or packs (preferably both) CONSTANTLY from anybody that is actually serious about playing in the future markets.

Cool stylish designs without a battery plant means you need a supplier that IS building 10's or 100's of GWh of supply OR you're just dabbling and not going to be making a dent in future worldwide market share of whatever market your cool stylish design is for.


As big as Tesla is in this market, and as big as GF1 is, I'm ready to see drone footage / pictures of construction equipment working on finishing the planned building at GF1. And I'm ready for a Europe and another North America GF announcement. I wouldn't mind hearing that they've figured out how to do more with less, and now each GF will be 200 GWh/year instead of the original 50 GWh/year, and that'd sound like the infrastructure is filling out for the 2022 Tesla (all my #'s are napkin math estimates - the real point being, 30% of eventual GF1 isn't in the right order of magnitude for demand I can see today, much less in a couple of years).

 

[jhm]

Ok I've pulled together the 2017 and 2018 rankings. It is informative to compare how rank sales level changes even when the names of the rank holders change. The question is, how much growth is needed to stay in this particular rank or rank group?

Sales are in thousands.

Rank 2017 Sales   Share  2018 Sales   Share  Growth  2017  2018
1     119     9.3%     245     12.2%    106%        Ren-Nis    Tesla
2     114     8.9%     229     11.4%    101%        BYD        BYD
3     105     8.2%     193      9.5%     84%        BAIC       RNM
4     103     8.1%     165      8.2%     60%        Geely      BAIC
5     103     8.1%     142      7.0%     38%        Tesla      BMW
6     103     8.0%     123      6.1%     20%        BMW        SAIC
7      70     5.5%     114      5.6%     61%        VW         Geely
8      56     4.4%      91      4.5%     62%        SAIC       Hyundai-Kia
9      55     4.3%      83      4.1%     50%        GM         VW
10     51     4.0%      66      3.3%     29%        Toyota     Chery
                              
Top  3      338      26%       667      33%    98%         
Next 7      542      42%       784      39%    45%         
Rest        401      31%       567      28%    41%         
Total     1,281     100%     2,018     100%    58%

So Renault-Nissan (RNM) needed to grow by 106% just to remain at rank 1. BAIC needed to grow by 84% to stay at rank 3.

As a group the Top 3 held 26% market share and grew 98% to comprise 33% share. This is a clear indication of consolidation within the EV industry. By comparison the Next 7 (among the top 10) grew by 45% while the rest of the field grew by 41%.

This is quite a spread. The top of the field is doubling every year while the bottom is at least doubling every 2 years. It will be interesting to see how this holds up. My expectation is that the share of the bottom of the field will continue to decline. My sense is that the EV market will be much more concentrated in a few names than the ICE industry. I am looking for that middle tier to heat up and grow faster. The more competition there is in the middle field, the more sustained the high growth rates in the Top 3 will be.

For example, Tesla jumped from the Next 7 (Rank 5) in 2017 to Top 3 (Rank 1) in 2018 by growing almost 2.5 times. Other middle field players could pull off such stunts. But we already know that Rank 1 Tesla is aiming to double in 2019, which may well need to do to remain in Rank 1 or even in Top 3. I'm so glad that Tesla is building out GF4. This is absolutely necessary for Tesla to be able to take their game to China and compete directly with BYD, BAIC and the others.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ok I've pulled together the 2017 and 2018 rankings. It is informative to compare how rank sales level changes even when the names of the rank holders change. The question is, how much growth is needed to stay in this particular rank or rank group?

Sales are in thousands.

Rank     2017  2017%  2018  2018%  +/-%  "2017"    "2018"
1        119    9.3%   245  12.2%  106%  Ren-Nis   Tesla
2        114    8.9%   229  11.4%  101%  BYD       BYD
3        105    8.2%   193   9.5%   84%  BAIC      RNM
4        103    8.1%   165   8.2%   60%  Geely     BAIC
5        103    8.1%   142   7.0%   38%  Tesla     BMW
6        103    8.0%   123   6.1%   20%  BMW       SAIC
7         70    5.5%   114   5.6%   61%  VW        Geely
8         56    4.4%    91   4.5%   62%  SAIC      Hyundai-Kia
9         55    4.3%    83   4.1%   50%  GM        VW
10        51    4.0%    66   3.3%   29%  Toyota    Chery
                                
Top  3   338   26%     667  33%     98%                 
Next 7   542   42%     784  39%     45%           
Rest     401   31%     567  28%     41%           
Total  1,281  100%   2,018 100%     58%

You made me do that.

 

[neroden]

For example, Tesla jumped from the Next 7 (Rank 5) in 2017 to Top 3 (Rank 1) in 2018 by growing almost 2.5 times. Other middle field players could pull off such stunts. But we already know that Rank 1 Tesla is aiming to double in 2019, which may well need to do to remain in Rank 1 or even in Top 3. I'm so glad that Tesla is building out GF4. This is absolutely necessary for Tesla to be able to take their game to China and compete directly with BYD, BAIC and the others.

Notably Tesla is planning to more-than-double from 2019 to 2021 as well (though the timelines on the Semi are vague). It gets hard to maintain a faster rate than that over time; 50% per year is the long-term industry growth rate, and Tesla seems to be able to average about the same.

 

[JZVR]

Year end data for 2018, interesting several sources say BYD beat Tesla by a small margin.

Tesla and China's BYD fight for lead in global EV sales | The Driven

 

[winfield100]

Year end data for 2018, interesting several sources say BYD beat Tesla by a small margin.

Tesla and China's BYD fight for lead in global EV sales | The Driven

it would be helpful to see the same data in gigawatt hours of batteries.
as a not so hypothetical idea
a Tesla with an 80 -100kW battery is a single sale
BYD _seems_ to have average of 55kW battery (48-80)
(as an aside, note how grossly underpowered re PHEV's. im pretty sure of my data, but its a snapshot in time)


Pure Electrics kWh
Tesla Model S 100D 100
Tesla Model X 100D 100
Jaguar I-Pace 90
Tesla Model 3 80.4
BYD E6 80
Tesla Model S 75D 75
Tesla Model X 75D 75
Hyundai Kona 64
Hyundai Kona SUV 64
BYD song ev 400 61.9
BYD song ev 500 61.9
Denza 400 EV 60
GAC Trumpchi GE3 50
BYD e5 48
BYD EV QIN 300 48
BYD Song PHEV 48
BYD song ev 300 47.5
Geely Emgrand EV450 45
Kandi EX3 41.8
JMC E400 41
Nissan LEAF S 40
JAC iEV6S 39
BAIC EC 200 36
VW e-Golf 35.8
Horki 300E 35.6
Ford Focus Electric 33.5
BMW i3 33.2
Renault Kangoo ZE 33
BAIC EC 180 30
Sono Sion 30
Kia Soul EV 30
Citroen e-Mahari 30
Bolloré Bluecar 30
Hyundai Ioniq Elect. 28
Changan Benni 27.5
Honda Clarity Elect. 25.5
Fiat 500e 24
BAIC EC 180 (China) 22
Chery eQ 22
Renault Zoe 22
Smart electric 17.6
JMC E200 17
JMC E100 15
Zhidou D2 EV 12
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV 11.8
Renault Twizy 6.1
Chevy Bolt
Zotye E200
BAIC EU-Series
Zotye Cloud
BYD Tang

PHEV
BMW i3 33.2
Karma Revero 21.4
Cadillac CT6 Plug-In 18.4
Chevy Volt 18.4
Honda Clarity PHEV 17
Chrysler Pacifica hyb. 16
Porsche Panamera 14.1
Mitsubishi Outlander 12
BMW i8 11.6
Porsche Cayenne 10.8
Volvo S90 T8 10.4
Volvo XC60 T8 10.4
Hyundai Sonata PHEV 9.8
Kia Optima Plug-In 9.8
BMW 530e 9.4
BMW 740e 9.2
BMW X5 9.2
Volvo XC90 T8 9.2
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV 8.9
Kia Niro PHEV 8.9
Audi A3 e-tron 8.8
Mercedes GLE550e 8.8
Toyota Prius Prime 8.8
Mercedes S550e 8.7
BMW 330e 7.6
MINI Cooper S E Countr. 7.6
Ford C-Max Energi 7.6
Ford Fusion Energi 7.6
Mercedes C350e 6.2

 

[jhm]

Rank	2017 Sales	2017 Share	2018 Sales	2018 Share	Sales Growth		2017 Name	2018 Name
1	119​	9.3%​	245​	12.2%​	105.7%​		Renault-Nissan	Tesla
2	114​	8.9%​	229​	11.4%​	101.3%​		BYD	BYD
3	105​	8.2%​	193​	9.5%​	84.4%​		BAIC	RNM
4	103​	8.1%​	165​	8.2%​	60.3%​		Geely	BAIC
5	103​	8.1%​	142​	7.0%​	37.9%​		Tesla	BMW
6	103​	8.0%​	123​	6.1%​	19.8%​		BMW	SAIC
7	70​	5.5%​	114​	5.6%​	61.4%​		VW	Geely
8	56​	4.4%​	91​	4.5%​	61.8%​		SAIC	Hyundai-Kia
9	55​	4.3%​	83​	4.1%​	49.8%​		GM	VW
10	51​	4.0%​	66​	3.3%​	29.3%​		Toyota	Chery
Groups	2017 Sales	2017 Share	2018 Sales	2018 Share	Sales Growth
Top 3	338​	26.4%​	667​	33.1%​	97.6%​
Next 7	542​	42.3%​	784​	38.8%​	44.6%​
Rest	401​	31.3%​	567​	28.1%​	41.2%​
Total	1,281​	100.0%​	2,018​	100.0%​	57.5%​

@ItsNotAboutTheMoney made me do it.